São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Sep 2026

São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Atlético MG Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -128

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Atlético Mineiro +0.5 look like the value wager and the numbers back this up. Take the away team at -128 on the Asian Handicap for their Série A encounter, with this being a confident selection on this side.

The betting analysis below explores the strongest selections for São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro, including the complete breakdown of our main match prediction, plus our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro Preview

São Paulo meet Atlético Mineiro, with kick-off set for 17:30 on Saturday 5 September.

São Paulo were winners in their last game, enjoying a 2-1 home triumph over Red Bull Bragantino. Tricolor Paulista recorded just 37% possession and had seven shots on target, with Luciano Neves and Gustavo Santana each scoring one goal.

Atlético Mineiro won their previous Série A game, beating Vitória at home. It was a 2-1 triumph. Eduardo Dominguez's team managed eight shots on goal and enjoyed 61% possession, while Thiago Borbas and Reinier were on the scoresheet.

Four days ago, Atlético hosted Cruzeiro and won 2-1 in the Copa do Brasil.

1-0 Triumph for Atlético in Last H2H

The last encounter between Atlético and São Paulo saw the former triumph at home. It was a 1-0 scoreline. It’s been five Atlético wins, four draws and one São Paulo victory in the past 10 H2H matches.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
8	Atlético MG	24	10	6	8	32	28	4	32:28	36
11	São Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	1	29:28	30

View Full Table

São Paulo have 1 win, 6 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 14.1 attempts. Dorival Junior's side have averaged 56.3% possession and 5.8 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.5 goals from 3.9 shots on goal, 11.7 attempts and 5.0 corners.

Top scorer Luciano Neves has found the net 3 times, with Gustavo Santana, Pablo Maia, Marcos Antonio and Jonathan Calleri getting 1 goals each. The top assist makers are Joao Victor, Luciano Neves and Luis Osorio, all of whom have 1 on the board.

Atlético have 5 victories, 1 defeat and 4 draws, with an average of 1.5 goals from 4.7 shots on goal and 13.1 attempts. Galo have averaged 47.4% possession, 4.5 corners awarded and 5.2 corners against, while they’ve conceded 0.8 goals from 4.1 shots on goal and 15.7 attempts.

The top scorers have been Reinier, Vitor Hugo and Tomas Cuello, with 2 goals apiece. Bernard has been the chief assist maker in the previous 10 games with 3.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

São Paulo predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): Rafael (GK), Domingos Duarte, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Aurélio Buta, Danielzinho, Marcos Antônio, Iago Borduchi, Artur, Luciano, Jonathan Calleri.

Atlético Mineiro predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Everson (GK), Alan Franco, Vitão Fernandes, Vitor Hugo, Renan Lodi, Kevin Castaño, Tomas Perez, Tomás Cuello, Fred, Bernard, Mateo Cassierra.

Main Match Prediction

Atlético Mineiro +0.5 could be a value play in this Série A match. We’ll take the Asian Handicap odds of -128 for the visitors to claim a victory or a draw, giving us two outcomes against one with this bet.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atlético MG in 7 consecutive games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atlético MG in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atlético MG in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 9 of their last 10 games against Atlético MG.

The team at Sportsgambler.com are right across the latest Série A injury news and the form guide also informs our football predictions. This data is combined with the latest stats.

According to the odds, there’s a 56.2% likelihood of our pick winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

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Atlético MG Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -128 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 3, 23:57). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

São Paulo 1 - 1 Atlético

We’re sweet on the prospect of a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +480. Correct score betting can be rewarding and you can also get plenty of entertainment with this option.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tomás Cuello to Score +500

Tomás Cuello (Atlético MG) has netted two goals in his past seven Série A matches. This data directs us to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds of +500.

Latest Tomás Cuello Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+500

First

+1150

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Shots

Over 1.5

-122

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

São Paulo Over 5.5 Corners -143

The past ten São Paulo home matches have seen them awarded an average of 8.20 corners, while Atlético Mineiro have conceded an average 6.40 corners in their previous five games. We’re expecting history to repeat itself and for the São Paulo Team Corners line to get covered at -143.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

São Paulo

Total

10.80 5.80 5.00

Home

12.60 8.20 4.40

Away

10.20 5.50 4.70

Atlético

Total

9.70 4.50 5.20

Home

10.50 5.10 5.40

Away

8.60 3.70 4.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-106

Under 10.5

-133

São Paulo Corners

Over 5.5

-123

Under 5.5

-120

Atlético Corners

Over 4.5

-103

Under 4.5

-143

Most Corners

1

-161

X

+650

2

+155

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

At betting odds of +104, the bookies make São Paulo probable winners and there’s a 49% likelihood that the favourites triumph in this Série A encounter. Atlético Mineiro are the +280 outsiders, with the draw being a different option which could yield dividends.

There’s the option to get some insurance on your bet by going down the Draw No Bet route. This allows you to back São Paulo at -238 with a safety net or alternatively opt for Atlético at +155.

The Total Goals market always provides an interesting angle and Under 2.5 Goals is the shortest-priced option. The Both Teams to Score No bet is -127 and it’s ideal if you think at least one side will not score during the ninety minutes.

The best football betting sites will provide a first-class service and that includes getting hundreds of markets. Scan through them for any Série A game and take your pick.

Full-Time Result

1

+104

X

+215

2

+280

Half-Time Result

1

+170

X

+108

2

+320

Double Chance

1X

-400

12

-303

X2

-133

Draw No Bet

1

-238

2

+155

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

+102

2 Hcp +0.5

-128

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-161

Over 2.5

+123

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-110

No

-127

Those interested in favourite Jonathan Calleri to find the net first are able to get +430. If the Anytime Goalscorer angle makes more appeal, then this is +190.

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo)

First

+430

Anytime

+190

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+525

Anytime

+230

Thiago Borbas (Atlético MG)

First

+650

Anytime

+270

Mateo Cassierra (Atlético MG)

First

+700

Anytime

+300

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

First

+700

Anytime

+310

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+370

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

First

+900

Anytime

+400

Alan Minda (Atlético MG)

First

+950

Anytime

+430

Tomás Cuello (Atlético MG)

First

+1150

Anytime

+500

Newton Araujo da Costa Júnior (São Paulo)

First

+1200

Anytime

+525

Maycon Barberan (Atlético MG)

First

+1300

Anytime

+550

Eduardo Dudu (Atlético MG)

First

+1300

Anytime

+575

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

First

+1400

Anytime

+600

Victor Hugo Gomes Silva (Atlético MG)

First

+1400

Anytime

+600

Fred (Atlético MG)

First

+1500

Anytime

+650

Reinier (Atlético MG)

First

+1300

Anytime

+650

Bernard (Atlético MG)

First

+1500

Anytime

+650

Gustavo Scarpa (Atlético MG)

First

+1600

Anytime

+700

Tomas Perez (Atlético MG)

First

+1900

Anytime

+750

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

First

+1900

Anytime

+800

Amaral Borduchi Iago (São Paulo)

First

+1900

Anytime

+850

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

First

+2000

Anytime

+900

Lucas Ramon (São Paulo)

First

+2000

Anytime

+900

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+2000

Anytime

+950

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

First

+2200

Anytime

+1000

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

-

Thiago Borbas (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

Mateo Cassierra (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-

Tomás Cuello (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Alan Minda (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Eduardo Dudu (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-

Newton Araujo da Costa Júnior (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-

Maycon Barberan (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-

Reinier (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-

Victor Hugo Gomes Silva (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-

Bernard (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-

Fred (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-

Gustavo Scarpa (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-

Tomas Perez (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-

Amaral Borduchi Iago (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-

Lucas Ramon (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

-103

Under 3.5

-

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

+135

Under 3.5

-

Thiago Borbas (Atlético MG)

Over 2.5

-119

Under 2.5

-

Mateo Cassierra (Atlético MG)

Over 2.5

+102

Under 2.5

-

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-

Maycon Barberan (Atlético MG)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-

Eduardo Dudu (Atlético MG)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Tomás Cuello (Atlético MG)

Over 1.5

-122

Under 1.5

-

Alan Minda (Atlético MG)

Over 1.5

-105

Under 1.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+138

Under 1.5

-

Newton Araujo da Costa Júnior (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-238

Under 0.5

-

Victor Hugo Gomes Silva (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-286

Under 0.5

-

Fred (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Reinier (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-286

Under 0.5

-

Bernard (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

-

Gustavo Scarpa (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

-

Tomas Perez (Atlético MG)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Amaral Borduchi Iago (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-

Lucas Ramon (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-115

Under 0.5

-

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-

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São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro Lineups & Team News

Double-check the São Paulo vs Atlético team news before placing your bets. We’ll bring you both the expected and confirmed lineups for Série A, along with current injury news.

São Paulo Team Page Atlético Mineiro Team Page

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