Southampton vs Derby Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 Apr 2026

Championship Betting Preview: Southampton vs Derby

Sixth-placed Southampton square off against eight-placed Derby at St. Mary's, with kick-off set for 10:00 on Saturday 11 April, in a key clash in the race for the play-off places.

We’re confident in the chances of Southampton when they clash with Derby, with our selection appealing on the Full-Time Result market. Take the odds of -128 that the favourites claim a victory.

Southampton won last time out by a 5-1 scoreline. On the road against Wrexham at The Racecourse, they made it four wins on the spin. The South Coast team had nine shots on target and 46% possession, while Kuryu Matsuki was one of the five scorers that formed part of this goalfest.

Derby County secured a 2-0 home win over Stoke City at Pride Park in their previous game. John Eustace's men had 53% possession and recorded three shots on goal, with Jaydon Banel and Carlton Morris on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw home team Derby draw 1-1 with Southampton at Pride Park. Each of the past 3 matches involving these teams have seen a draw as the outcome.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82	56	26	82:56	80
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	67	59	8	67:59	69

View Full Table

8 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals from 13.2 attempts and 6.1 shots on goal. Southampton have had 56.3% possession and 5.4 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 0.8 goals from 9.6 attempts and 3.1 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 4.5 corners.

Top goalscorers Kuryu Matsuki and Cyle Larin have found the net 4 times, with Ross Stewart scoring 3. Leo Scienza is the leading assists maker with 4.

Derby have 6 victories and 4 defeats, with an average of 1.5 goals from 4.0 shots on goal and 12.6 attempts. The Rams have averaged 47.3% possession, 3.6 corners taken and 4.4 corners against, while conceding 1.2 goals from 3.8 shots on goal and 12.2 attempts.

Ben Brereton Diaz has recorded 4 goals, Rhian Brewster 3, with Sammie Szmodics and Matthew Clarke both managing 2. Look no further than Derry Murkin for the top assist maker (3) in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Southampton confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz (GK), James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jack Stephens, Ryan Manning, Flynn Downes, Caspar Jander, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza, Ross Stewart.

Derby confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Richard O'Donnell (GK), Joe Ward, Dion Sanderson, Matthew Clarke, Max Johnston, Lewis Travis, David Ozoh, Jaydon Banel, Sammie Szmodics, Bobby Clark, Carlton Morris.

Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Southampton vs Derby, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, key corners pick, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.

Match Prediction

Southampton look like an attractive bet at -128 and we think they can win this Championship clash. We’ll place this wager with confidence and there’s plenty of juice in the available price.

The football predictions are generated after consulting the team news for both sides along with the form. We are also able to analyse the latest Championship stats which can suggest how the game might unfold.

Key Southampton vs Derby league stats:

• Southampton have won 4 consecutive games.
• Southampton have won 8 of their last 10 games.
• Southampton have won 10 of their last 19 games at home.
• Derby have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

According to the best betting sites, our pick has a 56.2% chance of landing a return. However, our tipsters in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

For those bettors who want to boost their odds for Southampton to secure a victory, why not combine this pick with some of the other available options in a Bet Builder.

Power up your bet with the latest free bets, sign-up bonuses and premium betting offers found in our in-depth guide.

Our Match Prediction

Southampton To Win @ -128 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 9, 16:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Southampton 2 - 0 Derby

The Saints are available to back at +600 to secure a 2-0 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cyle Larin to Score +190

Cyle Larin (Southampton) has scored in his past two Championship matches The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +190.

Latest Cyle Larin Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+190

First

+525

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Derby Under 3.5 Corners -108

Derby have had under 3.5 corners in seven straight away matches, while the last 5 Southampton home games have seen them concede an average of 4.40 corners. We’re backing Derby to fall short when it comes to Team Corners and this pick is on offer at -108.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Southampton

Total

9.90 5.40 4.50

Home

10.20 5.40 4.80

Away

10.20 5.30 4.90

Derby

Total

8.00 3.60 4.40

Home

9.10 5.10 4.00

Away

8.70 2.70 6.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-133

Under 9.5

-106

Southampton Corners

Over 5.5

-127

Under 5.5

-111

Derby Corners

Over 3.5

-132

Under 3.5

-109

Most Corners

1

-222

X

+700

2

+215

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Southampton vs Derby Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The favourites have a 61% likelihood of success according to the bookies, with Southampton chalked up at -159 to land a win in this Championship clash. Derby County are seen as the most unlikely winner at +410.

Stake is split between -0.5 and -1.0 when betting Southampton -0.75 at -128 on the Asian Handicap. Beating Derby by 2+ goals sees a full payout. Winning by one goal means a return on the former and a push on the latter.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. If you think that both sides will end up scoring, then the Both Teams to Score Yes option can be backed at -154.

If you head to the best football betting sites, you can take your pick when it comes to Championship matches. The hundreds of markets always ensure lots of choice.

Full-Time Result

1

-159

X

+300

2

+410

Half-Time Result

1

+110

X

+140

2

+380

Double Chance

1X

-667

12

-455

X2

+117

Draw No Bet

1

-417

2

+255

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-128

2 Hcp +0.75

-102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+118

Over 2.5

-161

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-154

No

+112

There is +150 available that Leo Scienza finds the net at any stage. He is available at +410 to register the first goal which makes him favourite.

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

First

+150

Anytime

+410

Carlton Morris (Derby)

First

+175

Anytime

+510

Cyle Larin (Southampton)

First

+190

Anytime

+525

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

First

+200

Anytime

+550

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

First

+200

Anytime

+575

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

First

+220

Anytime

+600

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

First

+270

Anytime

+750

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

First

+330

Anytime

+900

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Ben Brereton (Derby)

First

+450

Anytime

+1200

Sammie Szmodics (Derby)

First

+450

Anytime

+1200

Shea Charles (Southampton)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

James Bree (Southampton)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Elias Jelert (Southampton)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Flynn Downes (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Jack Stephens (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Oscar Fraulo (Derby)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Nathan Wood (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Derry John Murkin (Derby)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Damascena Santos Welington (Southampton)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Stats: Championship matches only
Southampton haven’t tasted defeat in eight consecutive matches at St. Mary's. Tonda Eckert's team have recorded seven victories, two draws and one defeat in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50.

Derby have collected five defeats, four wins and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, scoring an average of 1.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40.

The past meeting at St. Mary's saw Derby defeat Southampton on penalties (2-2 AET).

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Southampton Home Stats		7-2-1	2.00	1.50	0.50	3	7	4	6
Derby Away Stats		4-1-5	2.90	1.50	1.40	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Southampton vs Derby Lineups & Team News

Always review the Southampton vs Derby team news before locking in your bets. We’ll deliver both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Championship as well as the latest injury reports.

Southampton Team Page Derby County Team Page

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