Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 May 2026

Championship Betting Preview: Southampton vs Middlesbrough

Southampton host Middlesbrough at St. Mary's in the second leg of this play-off semi-final, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Tuesday 12 May. The first leg ended 0-0.

Middlesbrough look like a great wager on the Asian Handicap against Southampton. You can back the visitors at +0.5 at -159 which means a payout if they draw or win, with one of these outcomes on the cards.

All Square After First Leg

Southampton and Middlesbrough played out a 0-0 draw at Riverside Stadium in the first leg on Saturday. Boro dominated possession with 64% of the ball and held a 5-0 advantage in shots on target.

The last five head-to-head meetings have produced three draws and two Middlesbrough wins.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82	56	26	82:56	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72	47	25	72:47	80

View Full Table

Southampton have 7 wins and 3 draws, averaging 2.2 goals from 5.0 shots on goal and 13.3 attempts. Tonda Eckert's side have averaged 52.9% possession and 5.8 corners per match, conceding 0.8 goals and 5.7 corners from 4.3 shots on goal and 11.6 attempts.

Cyle Larin is the top goalscorer with 6, Ross Stewart has 3, with Taylor Harwood-Bellis and two other players on 2. Cameron Archer and Ryan Manning are tied for the most assists on 3, with goalie Daniel Peretz managing one clean sheet.

Middlesbrough have 2 victories, 2 defeats and 6 draws, with an average of 1.4 goals from 19.8 attempts and 6.1 shots on goal. The Teesside team average 61.7% possession, 9.3 corners in their favour and 3.4 corners against, while conceding 1.1 goals from 9.8 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal.

Tommy Conway has top scored with 5, while David Strelec and Morgan Whittaker are next best on 3. Alan Browne has had 2 assists in the previous 10 games, while Solomon Brynn has one clean sheet to his name.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Southampton predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz (GK), James Bree, Nathan Wood, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Ryan Manning, Flynn Downes, Caspar Jander, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz, Léo Scienza, Cyle Larin.

Middlesbrough predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): Solomon Brynn (GK), Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, Adilson Malanda, Callum Brittain, Riley McGree, Aidan Morris, Matthew Targett, Morgan Whittaker, Tommy Conway, David Strelec.

Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Betting Tips

Take on Southampton vs Middlesbrough with our in-depth betting analysis, featuring an expert match prediction, scoreline advice, corners market insight, key player props and a value-driven bet builder.

Match Prediction

Middlesbrough +0.5 are capable of landing a return for this Championship encounter. We’ll take them on the Asian Handicap, with the latest stats backing up this pick which is priced at odds of -159.

The form guide is always considered and it’s great to also use the Championship team news as it filters through ahead of kick-off. In our quest for the best possible football predictions, the latest stats are scrutinised so that we have the best data.

Key Southampton vs Middlesbrough league stats:

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Middlesbrough in 6 consecutive games on the road.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Middlesbrough in 9 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Middlesbrough in 16 of their last 20 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 5 consecutive games against Middlesbrough.

The best football betting sites make it a 61.3% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 70%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

We advise that you move the line if you are looking for a larger price about the same selection. Make your prediction and land the bigger odds from your wager as a result.

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Our Match Prediction

Middlesbrough Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -159 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 10, 21:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Southampton 1 - 1 Middlesbrough

There’s the option to bet on the two teams to play out a 1-1 draw. Odds of +480 are on offer and this is a correct score wager that should provide plenty of entertainment.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cyle Larin to Score +320

Cyle Larin (Southampton) has registered four goals in his past five Championship matches on home soil. We believe that there is merit in backing him for an Anytime Goalscorer prop wager at +320 which means we need to him to be on the scoresheet.

Latest Cyle Larin Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+320

First

+600

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Southampton Over 4.5 Corners -135

The 4.5 corners line has been covered by Southampton in eight straight home games, while the past two Middlesbrough away matches have seen over 4.5 corners conceded. We’re happy to back the -135 when it comes to Southampton covering the Team Corners line which looks generous.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Southampton

Total

11.50 5.80 5.70

Home

10.50 5.60 4.90

Away

11.00 5.40 5.60

Middlesbrough

Total

12.70 9.30 3.40

Home

13.00 9.60 3.40

Away

9.80 5.20 4.60

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-104

Under 10.5

-137

Southampton Corners

Over 4.5

-135

Under 4.5

-105

Middlesbrough Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-159

Most Corners

1

+110

X

+650

2

-110

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Southampton vs Middlesbrough Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Southampton are the skinniest price to succeed in this Championship clash, with the favourites afforded a 44% probability based on their +125 betting odds with the bookies. Middlesbrough are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +195.

If you want to back the favourites with some insurance, then Southampton are -156 on the Draw No Bet market. Alternatively, Middlesbrough are +110 and there is money back if the game ends all square.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. If you are expecting both teams to score, there’s the chance to back Yes at -182 on the BTTS market.

Championship matches are always really well covered at the best betting sites. Customers are able to find a suitable betting angle thanks to the hundreds of football markets which are made available.

Full-Time Result

1

+125

X

+260

2

+195

Half-Time Result

1

+175

X

+130

2

+235

Double Chance

1X

-278

12

-370

X2

-172

Draw No Bet

1

-156

2

+110

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

+123

2 Hcp +0.5

-159

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+108

Over 2.5

-147

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-182

No

+128

Tommy Conway is the market leader at +475 to be First Goalscorer but if you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough)

First

+160

Anytime

+475

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

First

+190

Anytime

+525

Morgan Whittaker (Middlesbrough)

First

+200

Anytime

+550

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

First

+250

Anytime

+700

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

First

+250

Anytime

+700

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

First

+270

Anytime

+700

Hayden Hackney (Middlesbrough)

First

+300

Anytime

+850

Cyle Larin (Southampton)

First

+320

Anytime

+600

David Strelec (Middlesbrough)

First

+320

Anytime

+900

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Jeremy Sarmiento (Middlesbrough)

First

+400

Anytime

+1150

Riley McGree (Middlesbrough)

First

+450

Anytime

+1200

Leo Castledine (Middlesbrough)

First

+450

Anytime

+1150

Sontje Hansen (Middlesbrough)

First

+460

Anytime

+1300

Samuel Silvera (Middlesbrough)

First

+475

Anytime

+1200

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Micah Hamilton (Middlesbrough)

First

+600

Anytime

+1400

Shea Charles (Southampton)

First

+600

Anytime

+1500

Alex Gilbert (Middlesbrough)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Matt Targett (Middlesbrough)

First

+650

Anytime

+1900

Alan Browne (Middlesbrough)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

James Bree (Southampton)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Southampton have avoided defeat in their last ten matches at St. Mary's. The South Coast club have racked up seven wins and three draws in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 2.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80.

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the last six games on their travels. The Boro have five wins, four draws and one loss in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 2.10 goals per match and conceding 1.40.

When the sides last met at St. Mary's, Southampton drew 1-1 with Middlesbrough.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Southampton Home Stats		7-3-0	2.90	2.10	0.80	6	4	6	4
Middlesbrough Away Stats		5-4-1	3.50	2.10	1.40	9	1	8	2

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Southampton vs Middlesbrough Lineups & Team News

Don’t miss the latest Southampton vs Middlesbrough team news before you bet. Expect the predicted and confirmed Championship lineups along with timely injury updates.

Southampton Team Page Middlesbrough Team Page

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