Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 May 2026

Championship Play-Offs Betting Preview: Southampton vs Middlesbrough

Southampton host Middlesbrough at St. Mary's in the second leg of this play-off semi-final, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Tuesday 12 May. The first leg ended 0-0.

“Spygate” has dominated the build-up to this fixture, with Southampton charged with breaching EFL regulations after allegedly sending a member of staff to spy on Middlesbrough training ahead of the first semi-final.

Amid the off-field controversy, Middlesbrough look a strong option on the Asian Handicap. Boro dominated the first leg and have been in good form away from home lately, remaining unbeaten in their last six matches on the road.

You can back the visitors at +0.5 at -159, meaning a draw or a win would produce a payout, which looks an appealing option.

All Square After First Leg

Southampton and Middlesbrough played out a 0-0 draw at Riverside Stadium in the first leg on Saturday. Boro dominated possession with 64% of the ball and held a 5-0 advantage in shots on target.

Middlesbrough have not lost any of their last five meetings with Southampton, winning twice and drawing three times. Southampton, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last 20 Championship matches, suggesting another close contest could be on the cards.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82	56	26	82:56	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72	47	25	72:47	80

View Full Table

Southampton have 7 wins and 3 draws, averaging 2.2 goals from 5.0 shots on goal and 13.3 attempts. Tonda Eckert's side have averaged 52.9% possession and 5.8 corners per match, conceding 0.8 goals and 5.7 corners from 4.3 shots on goal and 11.6 attempts.

Cyle Larin is the top goalscorer with 6, Ross Stewart has 3, with Taylor Harwood-Bellis and two other players on 2. Cameron Archer and Ryan Manning are tied for the most assists on 3, with goalie Daniel Peretz managing one clean sheet.

Middlesbrough have 2 victories, 2 defeats and 6 draws, with an average of 1.4 goals from 19.8 attempts and 6.1 shots on goal. The Teesside team average 61.7% possession, 9.3 corners in their favour and 3.4 corners against, while conceding 1.1 goals from 9.8 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal.

Tommy Conway has top scored with 5, while David Strelec and Morgan Whittaker are next best on 3. Alan Browne has had 2 assists in the previous 10 games, while Solomon Brynn has one clean sheet to his name.

Confirmed Lineups

Southampton confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz (GK), James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood, Ryan Manning, Shea Charles, Caspar Jander, Kuryu Matsuki, Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza, Ross Stewart.

Middlesbrough confirmed lineup (3-4-3): Solomon Brynn (GK), Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, Adilson Malanda, Callum Brittain, Aidan Morris, Riley McGree, Matt Targett, Morgan Whittaker, David Strelec, Tommy Conway.

Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Betting Tips

Take on Southampton vs Middlesbrough with our in-depth betting analysis, featuring an expert match prediction, scoreline advice, corners market insight, key player props and a value-driven bet builder.

Match Prediction

Middlesbrough +0.5 are capable of landing a return for this Championship encounter. We’ll take them on the Asian Handicap, with the latest stats backing up this pick which is priced at odds of -159.

The form guide is always considered and it’s great to also use the Championship team news as it filters through ahead of kick-off. In our quest for the best possible football predictions, the latest stats are scrutinised so that we have the best data.

Key Southampton vs Middlesbrough league stats:

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Middlesbrough in 6 consecutive games on the road.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Middlesbrough in 9 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Middlesbrough in 16 of their last 20 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 5 consecutive games against Middlesbrough.

The best football betting sites make it a 61.3% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 70%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

We advise that you move the line if you are looking for a larger price about the same selection. Make your prediction and land the bigger odds from your wager as a result.

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Our Match Prediction

Middlesbrough Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -159 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 10, 21:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Southampton 1 - 1 Middlesbrough

There’s the option to bet on the two teams to play out a 1-1 draw. Odds of +575 are on offer and this is a correct score wager that should provide plenty of entertainment.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cyle Larin to Score +320

Cyle Larin (Southampton) has registered four goals in his past five Championship matches on home soil. We believe that there is merit in backing him for an Anytime Goalscorer prop wager at +320 which means we need to him to be on the scoresheet.

Latest Cyle Larin Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+220

First

+600

Shots

Over 2.5

+114

Under 2.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Southampton Over 4.5 Corners -135

The 4.5 corners line has been covered by Southampton in eight straight home games, while the past two Middlesbrough away matches have seen over 4.5 corners conceded. We’re happy to back the -135 when it comes to Southampton covering the Team Corners line which looks generous.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Southampton

Total

11.50 5.80 5.70

Home

10.50 5.60 4.90

Away

11.00 5.40 5.60

Middlesbrough

Total

12.70 9.30 3.40

Home

13.00 9.60 3.40

Away

9.80 5.20 4.60

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-128

Under 10.5

-111

Southampton Corners

Over 5.5

+102

Under 5.5

-147

Middlesbrough Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-156

Most Corners

1

-105

X

+650

2

+104

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Southampton vs Middlesbrough Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The available 1x2 betting prices reveal that Southampton are +138 for a Championship win, with Middlesbrough being +180. The draw is on offer at +245 if you expect the game to finish level.

If you want to back the favourites with some insurance, then Southampton are -143 on the Draw No Bet market. Alternatively, Middlesbrough are -100 and there is money back if the game ends all square.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. If you are expecting both teams to score, there’s the chance to back Yes at -192 on the BTTS market.

Championship matches are always really well covered at the best betting sites. Customers are able to find a suitable betting angle thanks to the hundreds of football markets which are made available.

Full-Time Result

1

+138

X

+245

2

+180

Half-Time Result

1

+185

X

+128

2

+225

Double Chance

1X

-250

12

-357

X2

-189

Draw No Bet

1

-143

2

-100

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

+106

2 Hcp +0.25

-132

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+114

Over 2.5

-156

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-192

No

+138

Tommy Conway is the market leader at +450 to be First Goalscorer but if you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough)

First

+450

Anytime

+155

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

First

+540

Anytime

+200

Morgan Whittaker (Middlesbrough)

First

+575

Anytime

+200

Cyle Larin (Southampton)

First

+600

Anytime

+220

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

First

+700

Anytime

+250

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

First

+700

Anytime

+250

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

First

+750

Anytime

+280

David Strelec (Middlesbrough)

First

+800

Anytime

+280

Hayden Hackney (Middlesbrough)

First

+850

Anytime

+290

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

First

+1100

Anytime

+400

Jeremy Sarmiento (Middlesbrough)

First

+1150

Anytime

+400

Leo Castledine (Middlesbrough)

First

+1200

Anytime

+450

Riley McGree (Middlesbrough)

First

+1300

Anytime

+475

Samuel Silvera (Middlesbrough)

First

+1300

Anytime

+475

Sontje Hansen (Middlesbrough)

First

+1400

Anytime

+480

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

First

+1500

Anytime

+510

Micah Hamilton (Middlesbrough)

First

+1500

Anytime

+540

Shea Charles (Southampton)

First

+1500

Anytime

+540

Alex Gilbert (Middlesbrough)

First

+1500

Anytime

+575

Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Southampton)

First

+1800

Anytime

+600

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

First

+1800

Anytime

+650

Matt Targett (Middlesbrough)

First

+1900

Anytime

+650

Luke Ayling (Middlesbrough)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Alan Browne (Middlesbrough)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

James Bree (Southampton)

First

+2200

Anytime

+750

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (Southampton)

First

+2200

Anytime

+750

Nathan Wood (Southampton)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough)

Over 2.5

-137

Under 2.5

-

Morgan Whittaker (Middlesbrough)

Over 2.5

-125

Under 2.5

-

Cyle Larin (Southampton)

Over 2.5

+114

Under 2.5

-

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

Over 2.5

+145

Under 2.5

-

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

Over 2.5

-111

Under 2.5

-

Leo Castledine (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Sontje Hansen (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Riley McGree (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-

Samuel Silvera (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Jeremy Sarmiento (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

+107

Under 1.5

-

Hayden Hackney (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

-

David Strelec (Middlesbrough)

Over 1.5

-152

Under 1.5

-

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Matt Targett (Middlesbrough)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

James Bree (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

Alan Browne (Middlesbrough)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

Luke Ayling (Middlesbrough)

Over 0.5

-123

Under 0.5

-

Alex Gilbert (Middlesbrough)

Over 0.5

-213

Under 0.5

-

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-

Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-

Shea Charles (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Micah Hamilton (Middlesbrough)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-189

Under 0.5

-

Nathan Wood (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Championship matches only
Southampton have avoided defeat in their last ten matches at St. Mary's. The Saints have racked up seven wins and three draws in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 2.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80.

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the last six games on their travels. Kim Hellberg's team have five wins, four draws and one loss in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 2.10 goals per match and conceding 1.40.

When the sides last met at St. Mary's, Southampton drew 1-1 with Middlesbrough.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Southampton Home Stats		7-3-0	2.90	2.10	0.80	6	4	6	4
Middlesbrough Away Stats		5-4-1	3.50	2.10	1.40	9	1	8	2

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Southampton vs Middlesbrough Lineups & Team News

Don’t miss the latest Southampton vs Middlesbrough team news before you bet. Expect the predicted and confirmed Championship lineups along with timely injury updates.

Southampton Team Page Middlesbrough Team Page

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