Turkey vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 28 Sep 2026
Turkey vs Italy Predictions
We’ll back Turkey +0.25 on the Asian Handicap and split our stake between 0 and +0.5 when they clash with Italy. A victory delivers a nice payout at -147 although a draw would still mean a return.
Continue reading for our complete Turkey vs Italy betting analysis, delivering an in-depth look at our main match prediction, as well as our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.
Turkey vs Italy Preview
Turkey take on Italy at Bursa Buyuksehir Belediye Stadyumu, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Monday 28 September.
Turkey were defeated last time out. Kocaeli Stadium saw them beaten at home to France by a 1-0 scoreline in the Nations League. Vincenzo Montella's team had only 36% possession and recorded three shots on target.
Italy lost when last in action. In a home game at Stadio Olimpico, they were beaten 2-0 by Belgium in the Nations League. Gli Azzurri had five shots on goal and recorded 56% possession.
H2H: Italy Too Strong for Turkey in Last Head-to-Head
The two teams last clashed at Stadio Olimpico, with Italy recording the Euro 2028 away victory. Overcoming Turkey by a 3-0 scoreline.
| Nations League | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Turkey |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0:2 | 0 |
6 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.9 goals from 5.0 shots on goal and 16.0 attempts. Turkey have had 56.7% possession and 6.5 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.0 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 9.8 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 4.6 corners.
Kenan Yildiz leads the way with 3 goals, with Merih Demiral and Arda Guler getting 2 apiece. Hakan Calhanoglu is the leading assists maker with 4, while goalie Ugurcan Cakir has 3 clean sheets.
Italy have won 7 and lost 3, averaging 20.6 attempts, 6.8 shots on goal and 2.5 goals. Roberto Mancini's side average 58.3% possession, 525.4 passes, 7.4 corners awarded and 4.0 corners against them, while 1.6 goals have been conceded from 4.3 shots on goal and 11.5 attempts.
Moise Kean has recorded 6 goals, Mateo Retegui 5, with Francesco Pio Esposito and Giacomo Raspadori both managing 3. Federico Dimarco and Mateo Retegui have managed 4 assists in the last 10 games, while Gianluigi Donnarumma has 4 clean sheets to his name.
Main Match Prediction
We’re backing Turkey at -147 in this Nations League game with a +0.25 goal start. We think that the home team will have the edge and we can therefore feel confident of a return with this bet.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction (competitive matches):
The first port of call is to check out the injury and suspension news for each side and then scroll through the form guide. We take this information and apply it to the latest available stats to come up with a verdict.
Based on the latest odds from the top bookmakers, our pick carries a 59.5% chance of winning. However, we think that the probability sits between 65-70% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we can recommend this wager.
It’s good to explore all avenues and you might prefer bigger odds about the prediction you want to make. Go ahead and move the line until you’re happy with the price.
Thinking about claiming free bets? Our bonus guide lists the best sign-up offers from the biggest names in betting.
Correct Score Prediction
1
-
0
Italy
There’s the option to wager on Turkey to win by a 1-0 scoreline. Odds of +600 are on offer and this is a correct score bet that should provide plenty of entertainment.
Player Prop Picks
Kerem Aktürkoglu (Turkey) can be backed to score at +250. He looks like a value bet to find the net and we recommend backing this Anytime Goalscorer pick.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
The five past games involving Italy have had an average of 12.60 corners, with the previous five Turkey home matches involving 11.60. Our verdict is that there’s value when it comes the Total Corners line being covered, with odds of +104 on offer.
Turkey
Italy
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
Get in the game with a bet builder. Our picks are Turkey with an Asian Handicap of +0.25, less than three goals in total together with more than 9.5 corners to be taken.
We advise a bet builder as it can be a fun approach when betting on a football game. The bookmakers provide this personalised betting facility where you select various picks and the odds are combined.
Turkey vs Italy Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Italy are +143 with the bookies to get the better of Turkey, with the latter having betting odds of +180. If you want to back the draw to be landed in this Nations League encounter, this can be wagered at +245.
It sometimes pays to take the Draw No Bet option meaning there’s a safety net if the game ends all square. Italy can be backed at -139 or alternatively Turkey are on offer at -103.
The Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 Goals betting market suggests that there’s not much between the two options. If you’re anticipating that both teams will score, the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -159.
The top football betting sites ensure that customers are able to choose from a wide range of options. It’s no exaggeration that they provide hundreds of markets when it comes to Nations League games.
Moise Kean is the First Goalscorer favourite at +400 and there’s an opportunity to back him to find the net anytime at +170.
Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.
Turkey Stats
Italy Stats
- 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the previous 10 matches
- 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 2.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 4.10 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 4.10 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 6.50 corners awarded and 4.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 7.10 corners awarded and 4.10 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 11.10 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 11.20 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 9 and least corners in 1 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 7.40 corners awarded and 4.00 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 4.90 corners awarded and 4.30 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 11.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 9.20 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 56.70% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 55.90% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 6 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 6 of the last 10 home matches
Turkey vs Italy Lineups & Team News
Double-check the Turkey vs Italy team news before placing your bets. We’ll share both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Nations League along with the latest injury news.
Previous Turkey Lineups
Previous Italy Lineups
Turkey Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Vincenzo Montella
Italy Player Stats & Squad
Nations League Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 | France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Turkey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 4 | Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Germany | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 | Serbia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 | Croatia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | England | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 | Portugal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Denmark | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 4 | Wales | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
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