Watford vs Derby Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 21 Feb 2026

Championship Betting Preview: Watford vs Derby

Watford square off against Derby at Vicarage Road, with kick-off set for 10:00 on Saturday 21 February.

The best plan could involve backing Derby with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at -102 when clashing with Watford. Our stake is split between 0 and +0.5, allowing us to land a return in the event of a draw.

Watford played out a 2-2 draw when last in action. This was on the road at Deepdale against Preston North End. The Hornets recorded 50% possession and managed five shots on target, while Othmane Maamma and Odel Offiah (own goal) scored one goal each.

Derby County have won three straight road games. In their previous appearance, they recorded a 2-0 home win over Swansea City at Pride Park. John Eustace's team had just 29% possession and recorded six shots on goal, with Rhian Brewster and Patrick Agyemang both on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Watford overcame Derby in their last head-to-head encounter. It was a 3-2 scoreline away at Pride Park. Watford have won all of the past 5 H2H meetings.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	67	59	8	67:59	69
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	53	65	-12	53:65	57

View Full Table

Watford have 3 wins, 3 losses and 4 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 3.6 shots on goal and 13.4 attempts. Edward Still's side have averaged 51.3% possession and 5.8 corners per game, with their opponents scoring 1.0 goals from 3.2 shots on goal, 8.8 attempts and 6.1 corners.

Thomas Ince leads the way with 3 goals, Othmane Maamma has 2, with Edo Kayembe and two others on 1. Imran Louza is the leading assists maker on 3.

Derby have 5 victories, 3 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.6 goals from 3.6 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts. The East Midlands club have averaged 43.5% possession, 4.2 corners taken and 5.4 corners against, while conceding 0.9 goals from 3.6 shots on goal and 13.0 attempts.

The top scorers have been Patrick Agyemang with 5, Rhian Brewster on 4 and Bobby Clark 3. Callum Elder and Ben Brereton Diaz have been the top assists providers with 3 in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Watford confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Egil Selvik (GK), Jeremy Ngakia, James Abankwah, Saba Goglichidze, Stephen Mfuni, Imran Louza, Nampalys Mendy, Nestory Irankunda, Edo Kayembe, Othmane Maamma, Luca Kjerrumgaard.

Derby confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Josh Vickers (GK), Joe Ward, Dion Sanderson, Matthew Clarke, Callum Elder, David Ozoh, Lewis Travis, Ben Brereton Diaz, Sammie Szmodics, Rhian Brewster, Patrick Agyemang.

Watford vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Watford vs Derby preview includes expert betting advice on all fronts — from a match prediction and correct score guidance to corners advice, player prop selections and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

Derby look a quality wager for this Championship encounter and we can bet the away team at -102 with a +0.25 goal handicap. The latest numbers imply that they can swerve defeat and claim a victory.

Having the inside track for injuries and accessing the form guide are important before coming up with football predictions. It’s also key to identify the key numbers and that is why our Championship experts sometimes take a data-led approach.

Key Watford vs Derby league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 8 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 3 consecutive games on the road.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Watford in 7 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Watford in 13 of their last 20 games.

According to the latest odds, there’s a 50.5% likelihood of our pick winning. However, our tipsters in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

Wanting bigger odds when it comes to your pick? With the line being moved, you can secure a larger price although the wager is a more risky one.

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Our Match Prediction

Derby Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -102 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 19, 16:29). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Watford 0 - 1 Derby

There are odds of +700 available that Derby land a 1-0 win. We like the correct score option as there’s a nice reward if you can accurately predict the outcome.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Rhian Brewster to Score +450

Rhian Brewster (Derby) has netted three goals in his past five Championship games. Considering the numbers, we think that odds of +450 offer plenty of appeal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Rhian Brewster Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+460

First

+1000

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Over 10.5 Corners -104

Each of the past six Watford games have involved the 10.5 Total Corners line being covered. The Total Corners line looks attractive and we’re going to take the -104 that it’s covered.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Watford

Total

11.90 5.80 6.10

Home

10.40 5.40 5.00

Away

11.40 5.20 6.20

Derby

Total

9.60 4.20 5.40

Home

11.10 6.40 4.70

Away

10.20 3.80 6.40

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-104

Under 10.5

-137

Watford Corners

Over 5.5

-125

Under 5.5

-114

Derby Corners

Over 4.5

+105

Under 4.5

-149

Most Corners

1

-179

X

+700

2

+170

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Watford vs Derby Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Watford are the skinniest price to succeed in this Championship clash, with the favourites afforded a 49% probability based on their +106 betting odds with the bookies. If you want to get against the market leader, then you’re able to secure +260 for Derby County.

For those wanting to reduce their risk, Watford are -213 on the Draw No Bet market. This means a refund if the game ends level, with Derby being priced up at +148 with the same money back guarantee.

For those expecting a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader on the Total Goals market. BTTS Yes is on offer at -128 for anyone who wants to side with Both Teams to Score.

If you head to our recommended sports betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Championship game. Go through the options and choose your football wager.

Full-Time Result

1

+106

X

+235

2

+260

Half-Time Result

1

+165

X

+112

2

+295

Double Chance

1X

-385

12

-345

X2

-141

Draw No Bet

1

-213

2

+148

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-132

2 Hcp +0.25

+102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-135

Over 2.5

+105

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-128

No

-109

Luca Tange Kjerrumgaard is available at +160 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer, with the favourite priced at odds of +370 to find the net first.

Luca Tange Kjerrumgaard (Watford)

First

+160

Anytime

+370

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

First

+250

Anytime

+575

Carlton Morris (Derby)

First

+250

Anytime

+650

Imran Louza (Watford)

First

+270

Anytime

+650

Jack Grieves (Watford)

First

+270

Anytime

+650

Mamadou Doumbia (Watford)

First

+300

Anytime

+750

Othmane Maamma (Watford)

First

+320

Anytime

+750

Sammie Szmodics (Derby)

First

+370

Anytime

+900

Kwadwo Baah (Watford)

First

+400

Anytime

+950

Tom Ince (Watford)

First

+420

Anytime

+900

Ben Brereton (Derby)

First

+450

Anytime

+1000

Edo Kayembe (Watford)

First

+450

Anytime

+1200

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

First

+460

Anytime

+1000

Giorgi Chakvetadze (Watford)

First

+600

Anytime

+1400

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Edoardo Bove (Watford)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Pierre Ekwah (Watford)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Derry John Murkin (Derby)

First

+800

Anytime

+1800

Joe Ward (Derby)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Stats: Championship matches only
Watford have failed to win in their last three matches at Vicarage Road. The Hornets have collected four wins, four draws and two defeats in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 1.00.

Derby have racked up three consecutive victories away from home. John Eustace's team have seven wins, two losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 2.10 goals per match and conceding 0.90.

The most recent Vicarage Road meeting saw Watford claim a 2-1 win over Derby.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Watford Home Stats		4-4-2	2.40	1.40	1.00	3	7	5	5
Derby Away Stats		7-1-2	3.00	2.10	0.90	8	2	7	3

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Watford vs Derby Lineups & Team News

Don’t miss the latest Watford vs Derby team news before you bet. We’ll offer the predicted and confirmed Championship lineups along with the latest injury developments.

Watford Team Page Derby County Team Page

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