Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 29 Apr 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-9-8 on the road) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 26-14-1 at home) at Benchmark International Arena in Game 5 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series. The series is tied 2-2.

The sportsbooks have been generous with the -118 that we see the Canadiens and the Lightning score Over 5.5 goals combined. We’re expecting the lamp to be lit multiple times.

Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning faced off on Sunday night, with the Lightning triumphing 3-2 at Bell Centre.

The Lightning had 25 shots on goal. Brandon Hagel scored two goals, with Jake Guentzel getting one. The Habs racked up 18 shots on goal, with Cole Caufield and Zachary Bolduc each scoring one goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The previous 10 games have seen both teams achieve five victories.

Starting Goalies

Jakub Dobes (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

5 wins, 4 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.4 goals from 23.7 shots on goal, with a 10.3% powerplay efficiency. The Habs have been giving up 2.8 goals from 25.6 shots, averaging 6.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.3%.

Nick Suzuki is the top points scorer with 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, with Juraj Slafkovsky racking up 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 2.92 goal against average with a .882 save percentage.

The Lightning have 4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 24.4 shots on goal, with a 7.6% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.1 goals from 24.8 shots, averaging 7.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 88.7%.

Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have scored the most points on 11, with each player managing 3 goals and 8 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.44 GAA with a .897 SV%.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

We’ve lined up expert Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to player prop picks and best bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.

Game Prediction

It’s hard to pass up the Overs bet for this NHL clash if you share the view that we’ll see at least six goals scored in total. We recommend considering the odds of -118 available.

Our NHL handicappers start by reviewing the latest team news for each franchise, followed by a close look at recent form. That information is then applied to the most relevant stats to reach a well-informed verdict.

Key Canadiens vs Lightning stats:

• The 5.5 line has been covered in 12 of the last 20 Canadiens games on the road.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Canadiens games on the road.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Lightning games at home.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Lightning games at home.

Over 5.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 54.1% chance of winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey wager.

Want more juice from your Over bet when it comes to Total betting? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier wager. You can choose from a range of options.

Get rewarded when bet. Check our latest guide featuring top-rated free bets, promotions and sign-up bonuses.

Our Game Prediction

Over 5.5 Goals @ -118 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 28, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jake Guentzel Over 0.5 Assists -100

Jake Guentzel (Lightning) has made at least one assist in 4 straight games. We can therefore place a Player Assists wager at an eye-catching -100 in the hope that our pick covers the line.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Canadiens 5 - 2 Lightning

There are odds of +2200 available that the Canadiens land a 5-2 win. We like the correct score option as there’s a nice reward if you can accurately predict the outcome.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Canadiens

Lightning

1-0

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+4000

2-0

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+3300

2-1

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+1200

3-0

Canadiens

+3000

Lightning

+1900

3-1

Canadiens

+1700

Lightning

+1300

3-2

Canadiens

+1000

Lightning

+850

4-0

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+2900

4-1

Canadiens

+1900

Lightning

+1150

4-2

Canadiens

+1700

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+1050

5-0

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+1900

5-2

Canadiens

+2200

Lightning

+1400

5-3

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+1900

5-4

Canadiens

+2400

Lightning

+1800

6-1

Canadiens

+2400

Lightning

+3300

6-2

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+2500

6-3

Canadiens

+4500

Lightning

+2500

6-4

Canadiens

+6600

Lightning

+4500

6-5

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+5000

7-1

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+6600

7-2

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+5500

7-3

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+5500

7-4

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+6600

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 63% probability of winning this game, Tampa Bay Lightning might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -167 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +138 about Montreal Canadiens.

1.5 is the puck line and 5.5 is the total goals line. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you’re wanting to back Over 5.5, the odds are -115.

You can find hundreds of game lines and team props for every National Hockey League clash, with the top betting sites creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Canadiens

+138

Lightning

-167

3-Way Moneyline

Canadiens

+230

Tie

+335

Lightning

-108

Puck Line

Canadiens +1.5

-189

Lightning -1.5

+152

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-105

Over 5.5

-115

Player prop bets don’t involve betting on a team to win and instead might look at a player’s individual performance. For example, the number of Goals they might score or the number of Shots they might have.

There are lots of exciting NHL micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are next goalscorer, next team to find the net and whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.30 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 24.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 16.6
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.4
• Hits: 36.1
• Giveaways: 14.3
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 11.1
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.4
• Hits: 27.3
• Giveaways: 14.2
• Takeaways: 4.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 16
• Faceoff Wins : 23.2
• Hits: 28.4
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 29.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.5
• Blocks: 17
• Faceoff Wins : 25.1
• Hits: 22.9
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Where to Bet on Ice Hockey Games

Top Ice Hockey Pages