Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 May 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-9-8 on the road) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 26-14-1 at home) at Benchmark International Arena in Game 7 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

The Canadiens and the Lightning might not light the lamp on too many occasions and that leads us to backing the -147 that there are Under 5.5 goals.

Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning met on Friday night, with the Lightning securing a 1-0 (OT) win at Bell Centre.

The Lightning had 33 shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy recorded 30 saves, with Gage Goncalves scoring the only goal. The Habs registered 30 shots on goal, with goalie Jakub Dobes stopping 32 shots (.970).

Head-to-Head Statistics

The H2H over the past 10 games have seen five wins for both teams.

Starting Goalies

Jakub Dobes (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 24.1 shots on goal, with a 9.9% powerplay efficiency. The Habs have been giving up 2.5 goals from 27.6 shots, averaging 6.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.5%.

Nick Suzuki is the top points scorer with 10 points, 1 goal and 9 assists, with Lane Hutson racking up 8 points, 2 goals and 6 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 2.58 goal against average with a .901 save percentage.

The Lightning have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.3 goals from 26.2 shots on goal, with a 6.3% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.4 goals from 24.0 shots, averaging 6.7 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.0%.

The top points scorer is Jake Guentzel with 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next best after having 9 points, 7 goals and 2 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.14 GAA with a .909 SV%, including one shutout.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

We cover the key Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting angles, showcasing our expert match prediction, correct score selection and a bet builder tailored for the best value.

Game Prediction

The two teams may not light the lamp too many times, thus ensuring that we go under the line on the totals. Take the attractive odds of -147 on offer for this NHL clash.

The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key NHL stats to help shape our hockey predictions and guide the final call.

Key Canadiens vs Lightning stats:

• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Canadiens games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Canadiens games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 13 of the last 20 Canadiens games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 games between these teams.

Under 5.5 Probability

The top betting apps make it a 59.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our analysts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. This is why we can recommend this hockey wager.

There’s a way of getting more juice from betting Under when it comes to Total Goals. Combining this selection in a Bet Builder means you can choose other options until you’re happy with the odds.

Give yourself a head start. Find betting offers that include generous free bets and welcome packages in our bonus guide.

Our Game Prediction

Under 5.5 Goals @ -147 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 2, 22:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Canadiens 3 - 2 Lightning

One bet that has caught our eye is the Canadiens to claim a 3-2 correct score win. This selection is available at +900 meaning that a winning selection will yield a nice return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Canadiens

Lightning

1-0

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+2500

2-0

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+2200

2-1

Canadiens

+1000

Lightning

+900

3-0

Canadiens

+2800

Lightning

+1700

3-1

Canadiens

+1500

Lightning

+1300

3-2

Canadiens

+900

Lightning

+750

4-0

Canadiens

+5000

Lightning

+2400

4-1

Canadiens

+1800

Lightning

+1150

4-2

Canadiens

+1600

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+1150

5-0

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+5000

5-1

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2000

5-2

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+1500

5-3

Canadiens

+3500

Lightning

+2500

5-4

Canadiens

+2900

Lightning

+2400

6-1

Canadiens

+2900

Lightning

+4500

6-2

Canadiens

+7000

Lightning

+3400

6-3

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+3500

6-4

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+7000

6-5

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+6600

7-2

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+7000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 61% chance of securing victory, Tampa Bay Lightning are favorites for this game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -156. The market suggests that Montreal Canadiens are least likely to win at +130.

The puck line stands at 1.5 and the total goals line is 5.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of +120.

Before placing your bet, explore the top NHL sportsbooks for a wide selection of game lines and team props. Compare the lines and betting odds to find the most appealing options.

Moneyline

Canadiens

+130

Lightning

-156

3-Way Moneyline

Canadiens

+210

Tie

+295

Lightning

+110

Puck Line

Canadiens +1.5

-192

Lightning -1.5

+156

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-147

Over 5.5

+120

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.30 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 24.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 16.6
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.4
• Hits: 36.1
• Giveaways: 14.3
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 11.1
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.4
• Hits: 27.3
• Giveaways: 14.2
• Takeaways: 4.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 16
• Faceoff Wins : 23.2
• Hits: 28.4
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 29.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.5
• Blocks: 17
• Faceoff Wins : 25.1
• Hits: 22.9
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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