Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 May 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-9-8 on the road) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 26-14-1 at home) at Benchmark International Arena in Game 7 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

The Canadiens and Lightning may not generate much offense in this one, which points us toward the Under 5.5 goals at -147. Five of the six games in this series have finished below that number and we expect that trend to continue in the decider.

The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning met in Game 6 on Friday night, with the Lightning securing a 1-0 overtime win at Bell Centre to force a decisive Game 7.

Tampa Bay put 33 shots on goal, with Andrei Vasilevskiy stopping all 30 shots he faced for the shutout. Gage Goncalves netted the only goal. Montreal managed 30 shots, while Jakub Dobes made 32 saves, posting a .970 save percentage.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last 10 head-to-head meetings are split at five wins each, with the Canadiens holding a 2-1 edge in games played at Benchmark International Arena in this series.

Starting Goalies

Jakub Dobes (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Your complete Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting guide is here, including our go-to match prediction, scoreline call, standout prop selections and a customized same game parlay.

Game Prediction

The two teams may not light the lamp too many times, thus ensuring that we go under the line on the Total. Take the attractive odds of -147 on offer for this Stanley Cup showdown.

The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key NHL stats to help shape our hockey predictions and guide the final call.

Key Canadiens vs Lightning stats:

• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Canadiens games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Canadiens games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 13 of the last 20 Canadiens games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 games between these teams.

Under 5.5 Probability

The top betting apps make it a 59.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our analysts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. This is why we can recommend this hockey wager.

There’s a way of getting more juice from betting Under when it comes to Total Goals. Combining this selection in a same game parlay means you can choose other options until you’re happy with the odds.

Give yourself a head start. Find betting offers that include generous free bets and welcome packages in our bonus guide.

Our Game Prediction

Under 5.5 Goals @ -147 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 2, 22:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nick Suzuki Under 2.5 Shots -161

Nick Suzuki (Canadiens) has failed to cover the 2.5 shots on goal total in 8 of the past 10 games. We think he might fall short of the mark, with odds of -161 available when it comes to this Shots on Goal bet.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Canadiens 3 - 2 Lightning

One bet we like here is the Canadiens to win 3-2 in the correct score market. At +850, it offers the potential for a solid return on a successful wager.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Canadiens

Lightning

1-0

Canadiens

+2200

Lightning

+2400

2-0

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+2200

2-1

Canadiens

+900

Lightning

+900

3-0

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+1500

3-1

Canadiens

+1500

Lightning

+1200

3-2

Canadiens

+850

Lightning

+800

4-0

Canadiens

+4500

Lightning

+2400

4-1

Canadiens

+1900

Lightning

+1150

4-2

Canadiens

+1800

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+1150

5-0

Canadiens

+1300

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2200

5-2

Canadiens

+2900

Lightning

+1500

5-3

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2800

5-4

Canadiens

+3300

Lightning

+2500

6-1

Canadiens

+3300

Lightning

+4500

6-2

Canadiens

+7000

Lightning

+3500

6-3

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+3500

6-4

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+6600

6-5

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+6600

7-2

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+7000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 62% chance of securing victory, the Tampa Bay Lightning are favorites for this showdown and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -161. The market suggests that the Montreal Canadiens are least likely to win at +134.

The puck line stands at 1.5 and the total goals line is 5.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of +140.

Before placing your bet, explore the top NHL sportsbooks for a wide selection of game lines and team props. Compare the lines and betting odds to find the most appealing options.

Moneyline

Canadiens

+134

Lightning

-161

3-Way Moneyline

Canadiens

+215

Tie

+295

Lightning

+107

Puck Line

Canadiens +1.5

-204

Lightning -1.5

+160

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-172

Over 5.5

+140

Prop betting is very popular, with bettors looking to wager on player props such as Goals, Shots, Powerplay Points and Goaltender Saves. It’s a great way of betting on individual player performance and the gambling sites will provide lots of options.

For those looking to enjoy a thrilling in-game wager, then NHL micro betting could be up your street. You are now able to bet on the Next Goal, Next Goalscorer and what will happen within the next 10 minutes.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.30 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 24.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 16.6
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.4
• Hits: 36.1
• Giveaways: 14.3
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 11.1
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.4
• Hits: 27.3
• Giveaways: 14.2
• Takeaways: 4.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 16
• Faceoff Wins : 23.2
• Hits: 28.4
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 29.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.5
• Blocks: 17
• Faceoff Wins : 25.1
• Hits: 22.9
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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