Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Picks & Odds | 26 Apr 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Lightning vs Canadiens

The Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 24-12-5 on the road) take on the Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-15-2 at home) at Bell Centre in Game 4 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series. The Habs lead the series 2-1.

There is merit in backing the Canadiens on the Moneyline considering our prediction is that they will have the edge over the Lightning. Especially as odds of -100 are available about this happening.

The Canadiens won the opener 4-3 in overtime, before the Lightning responded with a 3-2 overtime win in the second game. The teams met again at Bell Centre two nights ago, with Montreal edging a 3-2 overtime victory, in what has been a tightly contested series so far.

Game 3 saw the Canadiens register 29 shots on goal, with Lane Hutson, Alexandre Texier and Kirby Dach each scoring. Tampa Bay managed 17 shots, with Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel both finding the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Habs have won six of the last 10 meetings between the teams.

Starting Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Jakub Dobes (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 24.7 shots on goal, with a 6.9% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 3.0 goals from 25.2 shots, averaging 6.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 89.6%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 10 points, 4 goals and 6 assists, with Jake Guentzel racking up 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.31 goal against average with a .904 save percentage.

The Habs have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.5 goals from 24.8 shots on goal, with a 10.7% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.8 goals from 27.4 shots, averaging 5.7 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 93.0%.

The top points scorer is Nick Suzuki with 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, while Juraj Slafkovsky is next best after having 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 2.88 GAA with a .891 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction & Picks

Get ready for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens with all the betting angles covered, from an expert match prediction and correct score advice to player props and a custom bet builder.

Game Prediction

If you’re looking for a value bet, then -100 that Montreal Canadiens win this NHL game certainly stands out. We’re expecting them to triumph on the Moneyline at attractive odds.

Our hockey picks are rooted in solid team news and up-to-date form for each franchise. We also dig deep to uncover the most relevant NHL stats that help guide and strengthen our predictions.

Key Lightning vs Canadiens stats:

• Canadiens have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Canadiens have won 14 of their last 20 games.
• Lightning have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Lightning have lost 6 of their last 10 games.
• Canadiens have won 6 of their last 10 games against Lightning.

Canadiens Moneyline Probability

Looking at the latest betting odds, there’s a 50% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.

The Match Winner & Total Goals lines not only give you a chance to back Montreal for the win but also combine this selection with a prediction for how many goals will be scored.

Boost your wager with the newest free bets, sign-up promotions and the best betting offers featured in our easy-to-use guide.

Our Game Prediction

Canadiens Moneyline @ -100 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 25, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikita Kucherov Under 3.5 Shots -130

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) has had Under 3.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. We think he might fall short of the mark, with odds of -130 available when it comes to this Shots on Goal bet.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 1 - 3 Canadiens

There could be merit in backing the Canadiens to win 3-1. Odds of +1600 are available about a correct score bet where a nice potential return is on the cards.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Canadiens

1-0

Lightning

+5000

Canadiens

+5500

2-0

Lightning

+4000

Canadiens

+4000

2-1

Lightning

+1400

Canadiens

+1400

3-0

Lightning

+2500

Canadiens

+2800

3-1

Lightning

+1600

Canadiens

+1600

3-2

Lightning

+950

Canadiens

+950

4-0

Lightning

+3500

Canadiens

+4500

4-1

Lightning

+1400

Canadiens

+1400

4-2

Lightning

+1400

Canadiens

+1400

4-3

Lightning

+1100

Canadiens

+1050

5-0

Lightning

+6600

Canadiens

+7000

5-1

Lightning

+2500

Canadiens

+2500

5-2

Lightning

+1500

Canadiens

+1500

5-3

Lightning

+2000

Canadiens

+2000

5-4

Lightning

+1700

Canadiens

+1700

6-1

Lightning

+5000

Canadiens

+5500

6-2

Lightning

+3500

Canadiens

+3300

6-3

Lightning

+2800

Canadiens

+2500

6-4

Lightning

+4500

Canadiens

+4000

6-5

Lightning

+4000

Canadiens

+4000

7-3

Lightning

+4000

Canadiens

+7000

7-4

Lightning

+7000

Canadiens

+6600

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Montreal Canadiens have been given Moneyline odds of -102 against Tampa Bay Lightning who are -118. There is a 51% chance of the hosts winning according to the top sportsbooks.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is currently 5.5. A Totals wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of -132.

The best NHL sportsbooks offer a wide variety of game lines and team props for every matchup, with plenty of options available both before and during the game. Be sure to explore all the lines and odds before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Lightning

-118

Canadiens

-102

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

+148

Tie

+310

Canadiens

+150

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+205

Canadiens +1.5

-263

Total Goals

Under 5.5

+108

Over 5.5

-132

The gambling sites also allow you to place player prop bets such as Goals, Assists, Points and Blocked Shots. This means you can focus on an individual player’s performance rather than wager on the actual outcome of the game in question.

There are lots of exciting NHL micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are next goalscorer, next team to find the net and whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 25.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 15
• Faceoff Wins : 24.8
• Hits: 26.1
• Giveaways: 15.9
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 25.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 15.8
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 25.9
• Hits: 21.8
• Giveaways: 16.7
• Takeaways: 5.5

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 16.2
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29.7
• Hits: 33.8
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.9

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 24.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 16.2
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 27.4
• Hits: 29.4
• Giveaways: 12.1
• Takeaways: 4.2

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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