Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Picks & Odds | 01 May 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Lightning vs Canadiens

The Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 24-12-5 on the road) take on the Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-15-2 at home) at Bell Centre in Game 6 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series. The Habs lead the series 3-2.

The betting prediction is to back the Canadiens at -105. We think that the Lightning are massively opposable, so this is the best angle of attack with our wager.

When Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens met on Wednesday night, the Habs claimed a 3-2 win at Benchmark International Arena.

The Habs had 24 shots on goal, with Alexandre Texier, Brendan Gallagher and Kirby Dach each scoring one goal. Goalie Jakub Dobes made 38 saves (.950). The Lightning racked up 40 shots on goal, with Jake Guentzel and Dominic James scoring one goal each.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Both teams have won five games when it comes to the previous 10 H2H meetings.

Starting Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Jakub Dobes (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 25.9 shots on goal, with a 6.4% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have given up 3.0 goals from 24.2 shots, averaging 6.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 88.1%.

Jake Guentzel is the top points scorer with 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, with Nikita Kucherov racking up 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.44 goal against average with a .894 save percentage.

The Habs have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.7 goals from 24.3 shots on goal, with a 11.3% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.7 goals from 27.6 shots, averaging 6.5 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.3%.

The top points scorer is Nick Suzuki with 11 points, 2 goals and 9 assists, while Juraj Slafkovsky is next best after having 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 2.82 GAA with a .893 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction & Picks

This expert Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score tip, player prop suggestions and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Game Prediction

We’re keeping our pick simple and backing Montreal Canadiens to win. The home team should be able to triumph in this NHL game and you can get them at a tempting -105.

We keep a close eye on the NHL team news and our handicappers stay sharp by tracking the latest form and lineups. You’ll also find a full set of stats that offer valuable insight and help shape smarter hockey predictions ahead of the action.

Key Lightning vs Canadiens stats:

• Canadiens have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Canadiens have won 14 of their last 20 games.
• Lightning have lost 6 of their last 10 games.
• Lightning have lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Canadiens Moneyline Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 51.3% chance of winning. However, our cappers think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.

If you also have a strong view on the Over / Under line, then it could be worth a Match Winner & Total Goals wager where you can effectively back Montreal at a bigger price.

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Our Game Prediction

Canadiens Moneyline @ -105 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 30, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikita Kucherov Under 3.5 Shots -110

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) has fallen short of the 3.5 shots on goal total in 5 of the past 5 road games. This could happen again and there is betting odds of -110 when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 1 - 4 Canadiens

The Canadiens are available at +1400 when it comes to them winning 4-1. We like a correct score play and the chance to bag a nice return if our prediction is right.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Canadiens

1-0

Lightning

+3300

Canadiens

+3500

2-0

Lightning

+2800

Canadiens

+3300

2-1

Lightning

+1100

Canadiens

+1150

3-0

Lightning

+2200

Canadiens

+2500

3-1

Lightning

+1400

Canadiens

+1500

3-2

Lightning

+850

Canadiens

+900

4-0

Lightning

+3300

Canadiens

+4500

4-1

Lightning

+1300

Canadiens

+1400

4-2

Lightning

+1400

Canadiens

+1400

4-3

Lightning

+1150

Canadiens

+1100

5-0

Lightning

+6000

Canadiens

+6600

5-1

Lightning

+2400

Canadiens

+3000

5-2

Lightning

+1600

Canadiens

+1700

5-3

Lightning

+2400

Canadiens

+2400

5-4

Lightning

+2200

Canadiens

+2000

6-1

Lightning

+5000

Canadiens

+6000

6-2

Lightning

+4000

Canadiens

+4000

6-3

Lightning

+3500

Canadiens

+3500

6-4

Lightning

+6000

Canadiens

+6000

6-5

Lightning

+6600

Canadiens

+6000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The latest Moneyline odds are +102 that Montreal Canadiens win, while Tampa Bay Lightning have been chalked up at -122. This means the leading sportsbooks give the visiting team a 55% chance of success.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is currently 5.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of -110.

Before placing your bet, explore the top NHL sportsbooks for a wide selection of game lines and team props. Compare the lines and betting odds to find the most appealing options.

Moneyline

Lightning

-122

Canadiens

+102

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

+135

Tie

+300

Canadiens

+165

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+186

Canadiens +1.5

-233

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-110

Over 5.5

-110

We’re fond of player props as an alternative to betting on the game lines. The gambling sites will have Shots, Blocked Shots, Goals, Assists and Goaltender Saves among the choices and you can take a particular view.

Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on the NHL. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen next. Next Goal, Next Goalscorer and several 10 Minute lines are among the options.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 25.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 15
• Faceoff Wins : 24.8
• Hits: 26.1
• Giveaways: 15.9
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 25.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 15.8
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 25.9
• Hits: 21.8
• Giveaways: 16.7
• Takeaways: 5.5

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 16.2
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29.7
• Hits: 33.8
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.9

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 24.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 16.2
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 27.4
• Hits: 29.4
• Giveaways: 12.1
• Takeaways: 4.2

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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