Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Feb 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Maple Leafs vs Lightning

The Toronto Maple Leafs meet the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:30 on Wednesday, February 25.

Take the Lightning at -130 on the 3-Way Moneyline to have the upper hand against the Maple Leafs. We believe that the home team have a strong chance of claiming a regulation time victory.

Toronto Maple Leafs won their previous game 5-2. This road victory at Rogers Place against Edmonton Oilers was their third on the spin. Matias Maccelli bagged two goals, while Bobby McMann, John Tavares and Matthew Knies scored once. Goalie Anthony Stolarz had 34 saves (.944).

Tampa Bay Lightning were winners last time out. Their 6-1 victory against Florida Panthers at Benchmark International Arena was their tenth straight home triumph. Oliver Bjorkstrand had 2 points, featuring 1 goal and 1 assist. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy played a starring role, stopping 33 shots (.971).

Head-to-Head Statistics

These two teams last met at Scotiabank Arena, with the Leafs claiming the win. Beating the Lightning by a 2-0 scoreline. The Leafs have triumphed in their previous five meetings against the Lightning. On the head-to-head front, it has been 8 wins out of 10.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-10-3	3.3	.893	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

4 wins, 5 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.9 goals from 29.6 shots on goal, with a 23.8% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have been giving up 3.9 goals from 32.7 shots, averaging 2.1 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 85.7%.

Max Domi is the top points scorer with 11 points, 4 goals and 7 assists, with Auston Matthews racking up 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 3.50 goal against average with a .898 save percentage.

The Lightning have 8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.7 goals from 31.8 shots on goal, with a 19.2% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.3 goals from 26.0 shots, averaging 4.8 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.7%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 24 points, 6 goals and 18 assists, while Jake Guentzel is next best after having 13 points, 6 goals and 7 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.61 GAA with a .934 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

Our pick is that there will be a home win in this NHL clash. You can currently get -130 about a regulation time win which looks like great odds.

Our hockey picks are always well-researched, starting with a combination of the latest NHL team news and current form. Once we’ve got a solid read on the matchup, we layer in the key data to back it up.

Key Maple Leafs vs Lightning stats:

• Lightning have won 10 consecutive games at home.
• Lightning have won 18 of their last 20 games.
• Maple Leafs have lost 6 of their last 10 games.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 56.5% prospect of winning. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 60-65%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

We’d recommend taking a look at betting selections for the Puck Line, Winning Margin and Match Winner & Total Goals if you’re interested in siding with Tampa Bay but want bigger odds.

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Our Game Prediction

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -130 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 24, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Darren Raddysh Over 2.5 Shots -161

Darren Raddysh (Lightning) has recorded Over 2.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Shots on Goal and you can get -161 that he goes over the line.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Lightning

One bet that has caught our eye is the Lightning to claim a 4-1 correct score win. This selection is available at +1150 meaning that a winning selection will yield a nice return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Lightning

1-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+4000

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1800

Lightning

+1400

3-0

Maple Leafs

+5000

Lightning

+2400

3-1

Maple Leafs

+2500

Lightning

+1500

3-2

Maple Leafs

+1050

Lightning

+800

4-0

Maple Leafs

+7000

Lightning

+2800

4-1

Maple Leafs

+2800

Lightning

+1150

4-2

Maple Leafs

+2200

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1200

Lightning

+950

5-0

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Maple Leafs

+5000

Lightning

+1600

5-2

Maple Leafs

+2800

Lightning

+1200

5-3

Maple Leafs

+3300

Lightning

+1900

5-4

Maple Leafs

+2400

Lightning

+1900

6-0

Maple Leafs

+2400

Lightning

+6600

6-1

Maple Leafs

+12000

Lightning

+3400

6-2

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+2000

6-3

Maple Leafs

+4500

Lightning

+2200

6-4

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Maple Leafs

+5500

Lightning

+4500

7-0

Maple Leafs

+5500

Lightning

+10000

7-1

Maple Leafs

+5500

Lightning

+6000

7-2

Maple Leafs

+14000

Lightning

+5000

7-3

Maple Leafs

+9000

Lightning

+4000

7-4

Maple Leafs

+9000

Lightning

+5000

7-5

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+9000

7-6

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+11000

8-0

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+15000

8-1

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+10000

8-2

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+9000

8-3

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+9000

8-4

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+9000

8-5

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+12000

9-2

Maple Leafs

+12500

Lightning

+14000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The favorites are 69% likely to win according to the sportsbooks’ latest Moneyline odds, with Tampa Bay Lightning priced at -227 to triumph in this game. For those wanting to back Toronto Maple Leafs, you will find +184 about the underdogs.

The puck line is 1.5 and total goals is 6.5. There are many ways to wager on hockey including Totals. If you want to back Over 6.5, it’s +106.

National Hockey League bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the hundreds of game lines and team props which are available for every clash on the coupon. Head to the top sportsbooks and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+184

Lightning

-227

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+310

Tie

+340

Lightning

-139

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-130

Lightning -1.5

+106

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-130

Over 6.5

+106

The gambling sites also allow you to place player prop bets such as Goaltender Saves, Powerplay Points, Assists and Goals. This means you can focus on an individual player’s performance rather than wager on the actual outcome of the game in question.

For those looking to enjoy a thrilling in-game wager, then NHL micro betting could be up your street. You are now able to bet on the Next Goal, Next Goalscorer and what will happen within the next 10 minutes.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 4.50 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 29.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 4.5
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29.7
• Hits: 21.1
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 28.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 2.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 5.5
• Blocks: 9.1
• Faceoff Wins : 20.6
• Hits: 17.6
• Giveaways: 17.6
• Takeaways: 5.1

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 31.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.8
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 16.4
• Blocks: 12.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.3
• Hits: 20.4
• Giveaways: 16.7
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 29
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 18.6
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 26.9
• Hits: 19.8
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 3.9

Injuries & Suspensions

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