Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 Oct 2026

College Football Betting Preview: Alabama vs Mississippi State

No. 7 Alabama takes on No. 16 Mississippi State in this Week 5 showdown at Davis Wade Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday, October 3.

Mississippi State look easy to back at -110 considering they’ve been given a spread of +5.5. This looks a good number when squaring off against Alabama.

A top-20 SEC matchup in Starkville gives Alabama another significant conference road test and Mississippi State a major opportunity on the national stage. Much of the intrigue centers on young quarterbacks Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor, two highly regarded talents leading offenses with ambitions that extend well beyond this early-season conference showdown.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 4-0 after making it four straight wins with a dominant 49-18 home victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks. Quarterback Keelon Russell completed 21 of 27 passes for 365 yards and four touchdowns while adding 35 rushing yards and another score. Ryan Coleman-Williams caught five passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are also 4-0 this season after extending their perfect start with a 31-24 home victory over the Missouri Tigers. Mississippi State produced 499 total yards, with quarterback Kamario Taylor throwing for 360 yards and three touchdowns. Fluff Bothwell added 122 rushing yards, while Anthony Evans III led the Bulldogs with 114 receiving yards.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Alabama won the last meeting against Mississippi State, earning a 40-17 victory at Davis Wade Stadium. The Crimson Tide have won each of the past five matchups between the teams.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

Explore our best Alabama vs Mississippi State picks, including a main match prediction, correct score forecast and a bet builder ready to use. Scroll down for full analysis.

Game Prediction

We’re happy to get with Mississippi State against the spread in this college football matchup. -110 is available that they are able to cover +5.5 and that looks more than reasonable.

We put solid research behind every CFB pick, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.

Key Alabama vs Mississippi State stats:

• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mississippi State in 4 consecutive games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Alabama in 6 of their last 10 games on the road.

MS State +5.5 Probability

The top betting apps make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability close to 60%. It's therefore regarded as a value wager.

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Our Game Prediction

Mississippi State +5.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Alabama 27 - 24 MS State

For a fun bet, consider backing the Crimson Tide to claim a 27-24 win. Although it’s a speculative wager, we are expecting things to be close between the two teams.

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Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The Alabama odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -208 betting favorites to land victory in this college game which means a 68% chance of winning. Mississippi State are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +172.

The spread is calculated to be 5.5, while total points comes in at 60.5. A wager on the Totals allows football bettors to use the latest data to good effect. There’s the chance to back Under 60.5 at -110.

The good news is that you can access a wide range of team props and game lines for most college football clashes. The top betting sites offer a great selection of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Alabama

-208

MS State

+172

Point Spread

Alabama -5.5

-112

MS State +5.5

-108

Total Points

Under 60.5

-110

Over 60.5

-110

If you have a view on Player Interceptions, Passing Attempts or Longest Pass Completion, then the player prop betting could be up your street. It’s a great way of wagering on a player or quarterback to perform well.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with college football fans essentially being able to wager in-game when it comes to score, player and team props. Sometimes these are two-way lines where you can bet on the Next Play or Next Drive.

Alabama Hold Three Straight Wins Over Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium

Mississippi State own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, posting 35.00 points per contest while yielding 27.10.

Alabama own a 6-4 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 22.20 points scored and 24.00 points allowed.

The last time the teams met at Davis Wade Stadium, Alabama defeated Mississippi State 40-17. Looking at the past 3 head-to-head meetings at Davis Wade Stadium, Alabama have taken every win.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O60.5	U60.5
Mississippi State Home Stats		5-5	62.10	35.00	27.10	5	5
Alabama Away Stats		6-4	46.20	22.20	24.00	1	9

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O60.5 = Games Over 60.5 Points
• U60.5 = Games Under 60.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Alabama Crimson Tide Stats

Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• -5.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +5.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 55.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 46.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 60.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 60.5 on the Road: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 34.00 pts and allowed 21.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 22.20 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 67.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 63.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 60.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 60.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 34.40 pts and allowed 33.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 35.90 pts and allowed 27.50 pts in the last 10 home games

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