UMass vs Toledo Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Nov 2026
UMass vs Toledo Predictions
UMass can give a good account of themselves against Toledo. They can prevent a big loss and there is -115 available that the underdogs cover the +14.5 spread.
Our expert UMass vs Toledo betting picks include our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Scroll down for a detailed breakdown of each play.
UMass vs Toledo Preview
UMass square off against Toledo at Glass Bowl, with kickoff scheduled for 19:30 on Wednesday, November 11.
UMass Minutemen have lost their previous two on the road. Their most recent game was at home at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium where they recorded a 31-30 (OT) victory over Ball State Cardinals.
Toledo Rockets got a third straight win in their last game. It was a 20-17 road triumph at Fred Anderson Field at Hornet Stadium when meeting Sacramento State.
H2H: Toledo 38-23 Winners in Previous H2H Matchup
The scoreline was 38-23 in favor of Toledo when they last played UMass, with the matchup taking place at Glass Bowl. Toledo have won all of the past 4 H2H meetings.
Best Bet
It’s all about UMass to stay ahead of the curve against the favorites. We really like this wager and the +14.5 spread looks generous at odds of -115 for this college football battle.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction:
Incoming team news often impacts the betting lines and odds in significant ways. Our college football handicappers factor this in alongside recent form, while key stats are also carefully weighed to strengthen each pick.
UMass +14.5 Probability
According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 53.5% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. That means we are regarding it as a value wager.
If you’re looking for a good alternative to betting on UMass on the spread, then consider the Winning Margin lines. You can choose from a range of fixed intervals and odds.
Don’t place a bet without checking our comprehensive guide to today’s best free bets and welcome bonuses.
Player Prop Picks
John Alan Richter (Toledo) can be backed at -114 to finish with fewer than 228.5 passing yards. There’s a strong case for choosing him to fall short of the required line in the QB Passing Yards market.
The odds for Adjatay Dabbs (Toledo) to have less than 60.5 receiving yards are -114. He’s not guaranteed to cover the Player Receiving Yards line and we’re happy to take this bet.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Pick
We’ve compiled a same game parlay that includes UMass +14.5 on the spread, combined with Over 51.5 and John Alan Richter (Toledo) to go Under 228.5 passing yards.
We recommend a same game parlay as it’s a great way of betting on a single event. Many football bettors like to create a personalised wager which reflects their predictions for how a game is going to play out.
Correct Score Prediction
23
-
34
Toledo
There are lots of different ways to back the Rockets on the correct score betting and something like 34-23 in their favor might be along the right lines at massive odds.
UMass vs Toledo Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
The sportsbooks are taking no chances with their Moneyline odds of -588 about Toledo which reflects they have a 85% chance of winning this college game. UMass Minutemen are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +450.
The spread currently stands at 14.5 and the total points line is 51.5. There are many ways to wager on football including the Totals. Those who wager Under 51.5 can get -110.
You’ll find a great variety of team props and game lines for most college football showdowns. The best betting apps provide a strong mix of pre-game and in-game options to suit your betting style.
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Toledo Have Won Nine of Their Last Ten Home Games
Toledo own a 9-1 mark in their past 10 home games, averaging 43.60 points on offense and surrendering 16.00 on defense.
UMass have two wins and eight losses in the last 10 games on the road, averaging 16.20 points on offense and surrendering 34.20 on defense.
Toledo defeated UMass 38-23 when the teams last met at Glass Bowl.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O51.5 | U51.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toledo Home Stats |
9-1 | 59.60 | 43.60 | 16.00 | 6 | 4 | |
 UMass Away Stats |
2-8 | 50.40 | 16.20 | 34.20 | 4 | 6 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O51.5 = Games Over 51.5 Points
- U51.5 = Games Under 51.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
UMass Stats
Toledo Rockets Stats
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
- 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +14.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- +14.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road
- -14.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
- -14.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 50.10 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 50.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 51.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 51.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 25.70 pts and allowed 24.40 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 16.20 pts and allowed 34.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 58.80 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 59.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 51.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 51.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 34.10 pts and allowed 24.70 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 43.60 pts and allowed 16.00 pts in the last 10 home games
| Mid-American | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio
|
7 | 2 | 265 | 195 | 70 | 4-0 | 3-2 | 6W |
|
Toledo
|
7 | 2 | 319 | 220 | 99 | 4-1 | 3-1 | 3W |
Buffalo
|
6 | 3 | 215 | 234 | -19 | 4-1 | 2-2 | 4W |
Western Michigan
|
6 | 3 | 236 | 173 | 63 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 1W |
Miami (OH)
|
5 | 4 | 247 | 240 | 7 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 1L |
Eastern Michigan
|
4 | 6 | 199 | 266 | -67 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 3L |
|
UMass
|
5 | 4 | 243 | 199 | 44 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 1W |
Central Michigan
|
4 | 5 | 178 | 214 | -36 | 3-2 | 1-3 | 1W |
Ball State
|
3 | 6 | 206 | 313 | -107 | 2-1 | 1-5 | 1L |
Kent State
|
3 | 6 | 129 | 275 | -146 | 3-1 | 0-5 | 1L |
Bowling Green
|
2 | 7 | 160 | 261 | -101 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 3L |
Sacramento State
|
2 | 8 | 170 | 293 | -123 | 2-4 | 0-4 | 1L |
Akron
|
1 | 8 | 172 | 290 | -118 | 1-3 | 0-5 | 7L |
Kent State
Bowling Green
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