Bills vs Texans Prediction, Picks & Odds | 13 Sep 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Bills vs Texans

The Buffalo Bills face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 13.

Over 44.5 points seems like a realistic outcome when the Texans go up against the Bills. We’re taking odds of -118 on the basis that the total line is too low.

Buffalo Bills finished the 2025 regular season with a 12-5 record before advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Their season ended with a narrow 33-30 overtime defeat against Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. The Bills finished with 449 total yards, breaking down to 266 passing and 183 rushing yards. The offense managed 28 first downs and found the end zone 3 times.

Houston Texans also posted a 12-5 regular-season record in 2025 and advanced to the Divisional Round. They were eliminated following a 28-16 road loss against New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The Texans moved the ball for 241 yards, including 193 passing and 48 rushing yards. The offense produced 16 first downs to go along with a single touchdown.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Texans are bidding for a third successive win against the Bills. They previously won 23-20 and 23-19 at NRG Stadium. In the past 4 H2H meetings, the Texans have won three.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

221.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

C.J. Stroud

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Bills vs Texans Prediction & Picks

The Bills vs Texans betting tips feature sharp analysis across major markets, including a key match prediction, player prop bets, correct score guidance and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

Let’s go for Over 44.5 when these NFL teams lock horns. We think the line is too generous and we’re expecting the final total to be higher at -118.

Tracking injury updates is a big part of our analysis and team news plays a major role in shaping our NFL predictions. We combine this with recent form and the most important stats to get a complete picture.

Key Bills vs Texans stats:

• The 44.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Bills games on the road.
• The 44.5 line has been covered in 11 of the last 20 Bills games.
• The 44.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Bills games.
• The 44.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Texans games at home.

Over 44.5 Probability

If you go by the top betting sites, there’s a 54.1% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

The leading sportbooks allow you to shoot for a bigger price by moving the line on the Totals. Choose a number where you’re happy and get more juice.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 44.5 Points @ -118 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 11, 19:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD +125

Josh Allen (Bills) is available at +125 to record a TD. Attractive odds are available for this Anytime Touchdown Scorer wager, and we believe it's a value proposition for him to take it to the house.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+135

First

+750

Passing Yards

Over 221.5

-114

Under 221.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

---

C.J. Stroud Over 223.5 Passing Yards -114

You can back C.J. Stroud (Texans) at -114 to exceed 223.5 passing yards. The line for QB Passing Yards looks attractive and we’re confident of securing a return.

Latest C.J. Stroud Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+950

First

+3500

Passing Yards

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 23 - 24 Texans

There’s every chance that this is going to be a close battle and we’ll have a play on the Texans enjoying a 24-23 winning scoreline. Hopefully this can go close.

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Bills vs Texans Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

If you want to bet on Houston, then Moneyline odds of -100 are on offer, although Buffalo is a -118 chance. The Texans have a 50% chance of victory in the eyes of the most popular sportsbooks.

The spread is calculated to be 1.5, while total points comes in at 44.5. NFL fans regularly enjoy the opportunity to bet on the Totals. If you're keen on Over 44.5, this selection is available at -110.

If you’re betting on the National Football League, we recommend visiting the top betting apps and scanning through the many team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to wager pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Bills

-118

Texans

-100

Point Spread

Bills -1.5

-105

Texans +1.5

-115

Total Points

Under 44.5

-110

Over 44.5

-110

Those interested in David Montgomery to score a touchdown at anytime are able to get -100. There is an opportunity to back the favorite to get the first TD at odds of +550.

Touchdown

David Montgomery (Texans)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-100

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+105

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+135

Nico Collins (Texans)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+155

Woody Marks (Texans)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+260

DJ Moore (Bills)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+270

Dalton Schultz (Texans)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+310

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+320

Kayshon Boutte (Texans)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+340

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+350

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+410

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+600

Jaylin Noel (Texans)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+600

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+700

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+700

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+650

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+950

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+900

Foster Moreau (Texans)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1000

Brevin Jordan (Texans)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1000

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1300

Keleki Latu (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1300

Marlin Klein (Texans)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1600

Cade Stover (Texans)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1600

Franklin Gore Jr. (Bills)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1800

Skyler Bell (Bills)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2200

British Brooks (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Jared Wayne (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Receiving Yards

Nico Collins (Texans)

Over 69.5

-114

Under 69.5

-114

DJ Moore (Bills)

Over 47.5

-114

Under 47.5

-114

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Dalton Schultz (Texans)

Over 34.5

-114

Under 34.5

-114

Kayshon Boutte (Texans)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

James Cook (Bills)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans)

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Jaylin Noel (Texans)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Woody Marks (Texans)

Over 10.5

-102

Under 10.5

-125

David Montgomery (Texans)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 74.5

-114

Under 74.5

-114

David Montgomery (Texans)

Over 54.5

-114

Under 54.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

Woody Marks (Texans)

Over 25.5

-114

Under 25.5

-114

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 221.5

-114

Under 221.5

-114

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Texans Riding Momentum at Home

The Texans have secured five straight wins at NRG Stadium. They are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, averaging 27.80 points scored and 18.40 points allowed.

The Bills have six wins and four losses in the last 10 games on the road, averaging 25.70 points scored and 21.10 points allowed.

The last time these teams met at NRG Stadium, the Texans came out on top 23-19 against the Bills. The Texans have taken all 3 of the recent head-to-head meetings at NRG Stadium.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O44.5	U44.5
Texans Home Stats		8-2	46.20	27.80	18.40	3	7
Bills Away Stats		6-4	46.80	25.70	21.10	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O44.5 = Games Over 44.5 Points
• U44.5 = Games Under 44.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

Houston Texans Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 46.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 44.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.00 pts and allowed 22.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 25.70 pts and allowed 21.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 42.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 46.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 44.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 24.60 pts and allowed 17.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 27.80 pts and allowed 18.40 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 372.60 Yds. Allowed 283.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 159.70 Yds. Allowed 121.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 212.90 Yds. Allowed 162.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.70 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.70. Allowed 17.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.30. Committed by opponents 4.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.70 Yds. Gained 36.90 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 322.70 Yds. Allowed 278.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 106.30 Yds. Allowed 94.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 216.40 Yds. Allowed 183.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 2.10 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.70. Allowed 15.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 5.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 52.90 Yds. Gained 46.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 357.50 Yds. Allowed 302.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 167.60 Yds. Allowed 141.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 189.90 Yds. Allowed 160.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.10. Allowed 17.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.90. Committed by opponents 4.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.60 Yds. Gained 37.10 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 347.20 Yds. Allowed 280.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 121.30 Yds. Allowed 97.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 225.90 Yds. Allowed 182.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.30. Allowed 16.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.60. Committed by opponents 1.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.40. Committed by opponents 5.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.10 Yds. Gained 50.50 Yds

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