Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Sep 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Broncos vs Chiefs

The Denver Broncos face the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:15 on Monday, September 14.

When the Chiefs meet the Broncos, we’re not sure that the total points will go over the line. Based on this prediction, you can land odds of -108 for Under 43.5 and this looks worth taking.

Denver Broncos posted a 14-3 regular-season record in 2025 before advancing to the AFC Championship Game, where they suffered a 10-7 home loss against New England Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High. The Broncos generated 181 yards, including 102 passing and 79 rushing yards. They picked up 11 first downs and scored one touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 after ending the regular season with a 14-12 road loss against Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Week 18. The Chiefs generated 168 yards, evenly split between 84 passing and 84 rushing yards. They picked up 10 first downs while allowing Las Vegas to record 12.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Broncos had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, they recorded a 20-13 win over the Chiefs. The past 10 clashes between these teams have seen six Chiefs wins.

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix

227.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Patrick Mahomes

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction & Picks

Our expert Broncos vs Chiefs betting tips include a main match prediction, a correct score pick, standout player prop selections and bet builder advice. Explore each section below for detailed insights.

Game Prediction

Let’s shoot for a total bet for this NFL showdown, with Under 43.5 points available at -108. This value pick looks to have lots of juice in the price.

The NFL handicappers at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.

Key Broncos vs Chiefs stats:

• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Broncos games on the road.
• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Broncos games on the road.
• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Broncos games on the road.
• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 6 Chiefs games at home.
• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Chiefs games.
• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Chiefs games.
• The 43.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 6 games between these teams.

Under 43.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, there’s a 51.8% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this wager.

Those looking for bigger odds can include an Under selection with other picks when they place a Bet Builder. A bigger potential payout could be on the cards with this wager.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 43.5 Points @ -108 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 13, 02:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 223.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at -114 to finish with fewer than 223.5 passing yards. He could struggle to reach the QB Passing Yards line, making this prop bet highly appealing.

Latest Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+700

First

+2700

Passing Yards

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

---

Bo Nix Under 15.5 Rushing Yards -114

Bo Nix (Chiefs) can be backed at -114 to have less than 15.5 rushing yards. There’s no reason to doubt our instinct, so we’ll bet on him falling short of the Player Rushing Yards line.

Latest Bo Nix Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+430

First

+1900

Passing Yards

Over 227.5

-114

Under 227.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Broncos 23 - 17 Chiefs

Let’s roll the dice and try the Broncos to enjoy a 23-17 winning scoreline here. There are massive odds for this potential outcome and it’s a fun type of wager to enjoy.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Broncos vs Chiefs Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

There’s the opportunity to back Kansas City Chiefs at -133 on the Moneyline although Denver Broncos are priced up at betting odds of +114. This means the top sportsbooks give the Orange Crush a 47% chance of winning.

The current spread is 2.5 and the total points line is 43.5. A Total wager relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. Those expecting a low total can back Under 43.5 at -120.

National Football League bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the hundreds of team props and game lines which are available for every matchup on the coupon. Head to the top sportsbooks and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

Broncos

+114

Chiefs

-133

Point Spread

Broncos +2.5

-118

Chiefs -2.5

-104

Total Points

Under 43.5

-120

Over 43.5

-102

Kenneth Walker III is priced at +490 when it comes to First TD Scorer. He’s the favorite and also available at odds of -115 to score a touchdown at anytime.

Touchdown

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

First TD

+490

Anytime TD

-115

J.K. Dobbins (Broncos)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+170

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+165

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+210

Jaylen Waddle (Broncos)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+210

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+260

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+350

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+340

Bo Nix (Broncos)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+430

Evan Engram (Broncos)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+470

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+700

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+650

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+650

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+800

Jonah Coleman (Broncos)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+750

Tyler Badie (Broncos)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+750

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+1000

Cyrus Allen (Chiefs)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1000

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+950

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1100

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1200

Troy Franklin (Broncos)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1300

Jalen Royals (Chiefs)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1700

Jared Wiley (Chiefs)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1800

Dallen Bentley (Broncos)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1800

Nate Adkins (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1900

Jake Briningstool (Chiefs)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2000

Adam Prentice (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2000

Nikko Remigio (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Ben VanSumeren (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle (Broncos)

Over 58.5

-114

Under 58.5

-114

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

Over 51.5

-114

Under 51.5

-114

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Over 42.5

-114

Under 42.5

-114

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

Over 42.5

-114

Under 42.5

-114

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

Over 26.5

-114

Under 26.5

-114

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Cyrus Allen (Chiefs)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

Over 5.5

+108

Under 5.5

-139

J.K. Dobbins (Broncos)

Over 3.5

-106

Under 3.5

-120

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 63.5

-114

Under 63.5

-114

J.K. Dobbins (Broncos)

Over 49.5

-114

Under 49.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 0.5

+118

Under 0.5

-149

Passing Yards

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 227.5

-114

Under 227.5

-114

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

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Chiefs Have Suffered Three Consecutive Home Defeats

The Chiefs are on a run of three straight losses at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Red and Gold have gone 6-4 across their last 10 home games, averaging 23.40 points scored and 16.90 points allowed.

The Broncos have put together six straight wins away from home. Denver has six wins and four losses in the last 10 games away from home, scoring 20.20 points per contest and conceding 21.20.

The Broncos earned a 20-13 win over the Chiefs the last time they played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. From their last 7 head-to-head matchups at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs have collected six wins and the Broncos one.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Chiefs Home Stats		6-4	40.30	23.40	16.90	3	7
Broncos Away Stats		6-4	41.40	20.20	21.20	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
• U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Denver Broncos Stats

Kansas City Chiefs Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 40.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 41.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 43.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.60 pts and allowed 18.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 20.20 pts and allowed 21.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 38.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 40.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 43.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 17.60 pts and allowed 20.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.40 pts and allowed 16.90 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 322.90 Yds. Allowed 286.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 96.50 Yds. Allowed 103.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 226.40 Yds. Allowed 183.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.60. Allowed 17.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.70. Committed by opponents 5.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 44.40 Yds. Gained 41.20 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 285.70 Yds. Allowed 316.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 94.80 Yds. Allowed 105.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 190.90 Yds. Allowed 210.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.40. Allowed 17.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.20. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 56.30 Yds. Gained 54.10 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 307.80 Yds. Allowed 325.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 111.30 Yds. Allowed 107.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 196.50 Yds. Allowed 218.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.60. Allowed 21.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 0.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.80. Committed by opponents 4.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 57.40 Yds. Gained 32.20 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 341.10 Yds. Allowed 272.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 119.10 Yds. Allowed 99.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 222.00 Yds. Allowed 172.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.60. Allowed 15.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 0.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.30. Committed by opponents 6.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 39.00 Yds. Gained 53.20 Yds

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