Colts vs Steelers Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Oct 2026

Colts vs Steelers Predictions

Best Bet

Over 43.5 Points @ -110

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Over 43.5 points are expected to be scored when the Steelers and the Colts meet, with this prediction available at -110 and this looks like a value wager.

Our Colts vs Steelers betting guide covers our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Lock in the full card in the dedicated sections below.

Colts vs Steelers Preview

The Indianapolis Colts square off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in this Week 5 matchup at Acrisure Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, October 11.

Indianapolis and Pittsburgh both have postseason ambitions, adding significance to this early-season AFC matchup. The Colts will look to establish their offense through Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones, while the Steelers' defense has shown a knack for creating turnovers. It's an important test for two teams looking to establish themselves as serious playoff contenders.

The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 5 with a 2-2 record after securing consecutive victories, most recently defeating the Washington Commanders 30-13 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Indianapolis generated 257 yards of total offense, including 129 net passing yards and 128 rushing yards. The Colts recorded 17 first downs and scored three touchdowns, overcoming an early six-point deficit to take control of the game.

Daniel Jones completed 19 of 34 passes for 143 yards, no touchdowns and one interception, while adding a four-yard rushing touchdown. Jonathan Taylor led the ground attack with 95 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, scoring both times on five-yard runs. Laquon Treadwell led Indianapolis' receivers with five catches for 42 yards, while Tyler Warren added five receptions for 41 yards.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2 after suffering a 27-24 road defeat against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field, ending their two-game winning streak. Pittsburgh accumulated 361 yards of total offense, comprising 269 net passing yards and 92 rushing yards. The Steelers recorded 24 first downs and scored three touchdowns, rallying from a 21-7 deficit to tie the game late before conceding a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining.

Aaron Rodgers completed 22 of 40 passes for 299 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while taking five sacks. DK Metcalf led Pittsburgh's receivers with five catches for 115 yards, and Roman Wilson added three receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown. Jaylen Warren rushed for 93 yards on 17 carries and contributed another 33 yards on three receptions, while Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth caught the Steelers' other two touchdown passes.

H2H: Steelers Have Won Five Straight Home Meetings Against Colts

The Steelers won the most recent meeting with the Colts, recording a 27-20 home victory at Acrisure Stadium in 2025. Indianapolis had won the previous two encounters, but Pittsburgh has claimed four of the last six meetings and five consecutive home victories against the Colts. The Steelers lead the overall series 28-8.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones

213.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Aaron Rodgers

222.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

You can get -110 that there are Over 43.5 points and there’s lots of juice in those odds. The two teams should be able to keep the score ticking for our pick to win.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 43.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Colts games on the road.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Colts games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in 11 of the last 20 Steelers games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Steelers games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

We only make our NFL predictions after confirming the latest team news. Studying recent form and digging into the most relevant stats also helps us build a complete picture.

Over 43.5 Probability

The best betting apps make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

There’s a chance to secure larger odds when you bet on the Totals. The sportsbooks allow you to move the line for an Over pick until you’re happy with the potential return.

Start betting with confidence. Our bonus guide highlights the most valuable free bets and sign-up offers today.

Over 43.5 Points @ -110 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 222.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) to go beyond 222.5 passing yards stand at -114. We’re happy to take him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can place this wager with confidence.

Latest Aaron Rodgers Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 222.5

-114

Under 222.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-102

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Jaylen Warren Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Jaylen Warren (Colts) at -114 to accumulate over 61.5 rushing yards. We’re tempted to back him to cover the Player Rushing Yards line, with plenty of juice on offer.

Latest Jaylen Warren Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 61.5

-114

Under 61.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Colts 23 - 24 Steelers

We’ll roll the dice and go for the Steelers to enjoy a 24-23 victory. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams and we’re happy to take the massive odds.

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Colts vs Steelers Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 59% probability of winning this game, Pittsburgh Steelers might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -145 Moneyline betting odds. The market suggests that Indianapolis Colts are least likely to win at +122.

The spread is currently 2.5, with the total points line at 43.5. A bet on the Totals allows fans to use the latest NFL data to good effect. The Over 43.5 selection is available to back at -110.

The best NFL sportsbooks offer a wide range of team props and game lines for every matchup. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Colts

+122

Steelers

-145

Point Spread

Colts +2.5

-108

Steelers -2.5

-112

Total Points

Under 43.5

-110

Over 43.5

-110

Receiving Yards

Josh Downs (Colts)

Over 58.5

-114

Under 58.5

-114

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

Over 53.5

-114

Under 53.5

-114

Tyler Warren (Colts)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Roman Wilson (Steelers)

Over 41.5

-114

Under 41.5

-114

Keenan Allen (Colts)

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

Over 27.5

-114

Under 27.5

-114

Michael Pittman Jr. (Steelers)

Over 25.5

-114

Under 25.5

-114

Darnell Washington (Steelers)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

Germie Bernard (Steelers)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Laquon Treadwell (Colts)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

Over 86.5

-114

Under 86.5

-114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 61.5

-114

Under 61.5

-114

Daniel Jones (Colts)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-102

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 222.5

-114

Under 222.5

-114

Daniel Jones (Colts)

Over 213.5

-114

Under 213.5

-114

Steelers Have Won the Previous Three Head-to-Head Matchups at Acrisure Stadium

The Steelers own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 home games, posting 22.60 points per contest while yielding 21.10.

The Colts are 3-7 in their last 10 games on the road, putting up 26.40 points on average and giving up 25.90.

The last time the teams met at Acrisure Stadium, the Steelers defeated the Colts 27-20. Over the last 3 head-to-head matchups at Acrisure Stadium, the Steelers have claimed victory in all of them.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Steelers Home Stats		7-3	43.70	22.60	21.10	5	5
Colts Away Stats		3-7	52.30	26.40	25.90	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
• U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Indianapolis Colts Stats

Pittsburgh Steelers Stats

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 43.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.70 pts and allowed 28.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.40 pts and allowed 25.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 41.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 43.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 43.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.90 pts and allowed 21.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 22.60 pts and allowed 21.10 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 278.80 Yds. Allowed 374.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 91.30 Yds. Allowed 118.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 187.50 Yds. Allowed 256.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.20. Allowed 20.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.90. Committed by opponents 0.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.70. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 36.80 Yds. Gained 62.10 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 326.20 Yds. Allowed 338.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 107.20 Yds. Allowed 112.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 219.00 Yds. Allowed 226.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.70. Allowed 17.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 7.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 44.80 Yds. Gained 53.20 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 316.20 Yds. Allowed 375.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 98.00 Yds. Allowed 96.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 218.20 Yds. Allowed 278.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.80 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.30. Allowed 21.60
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.90. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.50. Committed by opponents 7.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 46.40 Yds. Gained 61.40 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 294.00 Yds. Allowed 338.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 89.40 Yds. Allowed 113.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 204.60 Yds. Allowed 224.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.40 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.00. Allowed 19.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.80. Committed by opponents 1.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 49.60 Yds. Gained 54.50 Yds

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