Raiders vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Oct 2026

Raiders vs Patriots Predictions

Best Bet

Under 44.5 Points @ -104

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We’re not convinced that the Patriots and the Raiders are cumulatively going to produce enough points in relation to the total line. Therefore, we’re aiming to go Under 44.5 at -104.

We’ve locked in our Raiders vs Patriots predictions, including our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Pick. Scroll down to see the full breakdown and reasoning behind each play.

Raiders vs Patriots Preview

The Las Vegas Raiders go up against the New England Patriots in a Week 5 matchup at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, October 11.

Kirk Cousins has given Las Vegas an efficient passing attack, with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer providing dangerous options at tight end. However, the Raiders' running game ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency. That puts extra pressure on Cousins against Mike Vrabel's Patriots, while Drake Maye faces a Las Vegas pass rush led by Maxx Crosby.

The Las Vegas Raiders enter Week 5 with a 3-1 record after suffering their first defeat of the season, falling 30-27 to the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas generated 437 yards of total offense, including 365 net passing yards and 72 rushing yards. The Raiders recorded 28 first downs and scored two touchdowns, but Kansas City's 20-point fourth quarter proved decisive.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns, connecting with Ian Thomas for a 27-yard score in the first quarter and Brock Bowers for a 20-yard touchdown late in the fourth. Ashton Jeanty contributed 126 yards from scrimmage, while kicker Matt Gay converted four field goals. Despite the strong passing performance, the Raiders couldn't complete their late comeback.

The New England Patriots improved to 2-2 with a 29-26 road victory over the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. New England accumulated 405 yards of total offense, comprising 262 net passing yards and 143 rushing yards. The Patriots recorded 26 first downs and scored four touchdowns, overcoming a five-point deficit in the fourth quarter to secure their second victory of the season.

Drake Maye completed 22 of 37 passes for 269 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, while adding 54 rushing yards on eight carries. Romeo Doubs caught two touchdown passes and Efton Chism III hauled in the decisive 23-yard touchdown reception with 1:50 remaining. Rhamondre Stevenson contributed 47 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, helping New England hand Buffalo its first defeat of the season.

H2H: Raiders Have Won Three Straight Against Pats

The Raiders have won their last three meetings with the Pats, most recently recording a 20-13 road victory at Gillette Stadium in September 2025 after winning 21-17 at Allegiant Stadium in October 2023. Las Vegas has won three of the last four encounters, although New England holds a narrow 20-18-1 lead in the overall series.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins

234.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Drake Maye

226.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

The -104 for Under 44.5 points to be scored by the two teams looks like great value in this NFL showdown. Our pick is that the teams might not collectively reach this total.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 44.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Raiders games.
• The 44.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Raiders games.
• The 44.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Patriots games at home.
• The 44.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Patriots games.
• The 44.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

The NFL handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key stats to help shape our predictions and guide the final call.

Under 44.5 Probability

Based on the odds from the top NFL betting sites, there’s a 51% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 55-60%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

If you’re wanting bigger odds for your Under bet, then there’s a way of changing the line and shooting for a lower points total in the hope of a better return.

Find generous betting offers before placing your next wager. The latest free bets, promos, and welcome bonuses included.

Under 44.5 Points @ -104 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Maye Under 226.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Drake Maye (Pats) to finish with fewer than 226.5 passing yards stand at -114. He’s not guaranteed to cover the QB Passing Yards line and we’re happy to take this bet.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 226.5

-114

Under 226.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

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Rhamondre Stevenson Under 38.5 Rushing Yards -114

The odds for Rhamondre Stevenson (Pats) to record fewer than 38.5 rushing yards are -114. We're confident he’ll fall short of the Player Rushing Yards line, so we're backing the Under.

Latest Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Raiders 17 - 24 Patriots

Should you wish to go for a speculative wager, try the Pats to win 24-17 on the correct score lines. This should be a fun bet which could potentially yield a big return.

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Raiders vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks have New England Patriots at -196 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the market leaders are 66% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. Las Vegas Raiders are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +164.

The spread currently stands at 3.5 and the total points line is 44.5. The Totals offers NFL fans an alternative way of getting involved. If you want to bet Under 44.5, there are odds of -104.

Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on the National Football League, the best betting apps offer a wide range of game lines and team props. The selections are practically endless and it’s great to have so many different options.

Moneyline

Raiders

+164

Patriots

-196

Point Spread

Raiders +3.5

-105

Patriots -3.5

-115

Total Points

Under 44.5

-104

Over 44.5

-118

Receiving Yards

Brock Bowers (Raiders)

Over 73.5

-114

Under 73.5

-114

Romeo Doubs (Patriots)

Over 51.5

-114

Under 51.5

-114

Tre Tucker (Raiders)

Over 39.5

-114

Under 39.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 37.5

-114

Under 37.5

-114

Michael Mayer (Raiders)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 25.5

-114

Under 25.5

-114

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders)

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

Over 23.5

-114

Under 23.5

-114

Cody White (Raiders)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Eli Raridon (Patriots)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders)

Over 59.5

-114

Under 59.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

Mike Washington Jr. (Raiders)

Over 23.5

-114

Under 23.5

-114

Kirk Cousins (Raiders)

Over 0.5

-102

Under 0.5

-128

Passing Yards

Kirk Cousins (Raiders)

Over 234.5

-114

Under 234.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 226.5

-114

Under 226.5

-114

Pats Keep Cashing In at Home

The Patriots have reeled off four consecutive victories at Gillette Stadium. They have a 9-1 record in their last 10 home games, putting up 29.10 points on average and giving up 14.50.

The Raiders have gone 3-7 across their last 10 games games on the road, scoring 15.30 points per contest and conceding 26.10.

In their last matchup at Gillette Stadium, the Raiders came out on top 20-13 against the Pats.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O44.5	U44.5
Patriots Home Stats		9-1	43.60	29.10	14.50	6	4
Raiders Away Stats		3-7	41.40	15.30	26.10	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O44.5 = Games Over 44.5 Points
• U44.5 = Games Under 44.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Las Vegas Raiders Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 43.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 41.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 44.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.10 pts and allowed 23.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 15.30 pts and allowed 26.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 36.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 42.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 44.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.20 pts and allowed 15.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.20 pts and allowed 16.10 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 258.20 Yds. Allowed 321.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 81.50 Yds. Allowed 138.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 176.70 Yds. Allowed 182.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.00. Allowed 19.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.90. Committed by opponents 6.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 37.00 Yds. Gained 44.50 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 338.90 Yds. Allowed 262.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 134.00 Yds. Allowed 99.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 204.90 Yds. Allowed 162.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.90. Allowed 16.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.30. Committed by opponents 5.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 36.90 Yds. Gained 43.10 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 251.30 Yds. Allowed 339.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 74.60 Yds. Allowed 132.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 176.70 Yds. Allowed 207.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 3.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.30 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 14.20. Allowed 20.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.70. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 57.60 Yds. Gained 48.90 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 361.30 Yds. Allowed 253.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 142.60 Yds. Allowed 98.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 218.70 Yds. Allowed 154.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.00 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.60. Allowed 16.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.50. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 3.90. Committed by opponents 4.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 37.50 Yds. Gained 36.50 Yds

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