Chargers vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Chargers vs Bills

The Los Angeles Chargers go up against the Buffalo Bills in this Week 3 matchup at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 27.

Under 50.5 could be on the money for this Bills vs Chargers clash. Our prediction is based on a low-scoring game and the odds of -115 looks like a value bet.

Justin Herbert and Josh Allen give this AFC matchup immediate star appeal, with Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers facing a demanding road test in Buffalo. Both franchises have significant postseason expectations, and the meeting offers an early opportunity to see how two talented conference contenders measure up against another high-level opponent.

Los Angeles Chargers have lost in back-to-back outings. In a recent home game at SoFi Stadium, they were turned over 26-14 by Las Vegas Raiders. The Chargers moved the ball for 310 yards, split between 183 passing and 127 rushing yards. The offense moved the chains 17 times and reached the end zone twice.

Buffalo Bills made it back-to-back wins in their last game. Landing a 41-31 home victory against Detroit Lions at Highmark Stadium. The Bills recorded 446 yards, breaking down to 243 passing and 203 rushing yards. The offense generated 34 first downs and produced 6 touchdowns.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Bills won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 24-22 triumph when facing the Chargers at SoFi Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert

224.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Josh Allen

238.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Chargers vs Bills Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Chargers vs Bills, including a key match prediction, our best correct score selection, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

Play the Unders at -115 when these NFL teams take to the field. The 50.5 points line looks plenty big enough and we’re not sure the pair will combine to get this total.

We track all injuries that could impact each franchise before making our NFL predictions. The form guide and latest stats also help the Sportsgambler.com team crunch the numbers ahead of the action.

Key Chargers vs Bills stats:

• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Chargers games.
• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in 9 of the last 10 Chargers games.
• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in 17 of the last 20 Chargers games.
• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Bills games.

Under 50.5 Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 53.5% chance of winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

More juice from your Unders wager can be found by combining this pick on the Result & Total lines. Choose the price which match your prediction.

Getting ready to place a wager? Check our updated guide for the latest betting offers, including free bets and the newest promos codes.

Our Game Prediction

Under 50.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 25, 19:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Justin Herbert Under 224.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Justin Herbert (Chargers) at -114 to record fewer than 224.5 passing yards. He may fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, making this prop bet a strong pick.

Latest Justin Herbert Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+490

First

+2700

Passing Yards

Over 224.5

-114

Under 224.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

---

Khalil Shakir Under 43.5 Receiving Yards -114

Khalil Shakir (Chargers) is available at -114 to end with fewer than 43.5 receiving yards. He’s not guaranteed to cover the Player Receiving Yards line and we’re happy to take this bet.

Latest Khalil Shakir Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+210

First

+1300

Receiving Yards

Over 43.5

-114

Under 43.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Chargers 14 - 28 Bills

There are some big returns lying in wait if you can get the correct score right. With this in mind, we’ll have a play on the Bills to enjoy a 28-14 winning scoreline.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Chargers vs Bills Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Buffalo Bills are -370 favorites to win and that means a 79% chance of landing a victory. Los Angeles Chargers are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +300.

7.5 is the spread and 50.5 is the total points line. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular NFL bets. If you want to bet Under 50.5, there are odds of -115.

If you’re planning to place a bet on a National Football League matchup, visit the top sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of available game lines and team props. Find the betting lines and odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Chargers

+300

Bills

-370

Point Spread

Chargers +7.5

-122

Bills -7.5

-100

Total Points

Under 50.5

-115

Over 50.5

-105

James Cook is favorite to be First Touchdown Scorer at +390. If you want to back him to score the last TD, you can get similar odds.

Touchdown

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+390

Anytime TD

-179

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-135

Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

-125

DJ Moore (Bills)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+180

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+185

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+210

Ladd McConkey (Chargers)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+220

Oronde Gadsden II (Chargers)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+270

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+380

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+380

Quentin Johnston (Chargers)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+300

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+450

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+490

Tre Harris (Chargers)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+410

Keaton Mitchell (Chargers)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+600

Skyler Bell (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+950

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+950

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chargers)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1100

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1000

Kimani Vidal (Chargers)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1200

Hayden Rucci (Chargers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Greg Dortch (Bills)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1800

Brenen Thompson (Chargers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1300

Patrick Herbert (Chargers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Alec Ingold (Chargers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Derius Davis (Chargers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1800

Keleki Latu (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey (Chargers)

Over 58.5

-114

Under 58.5

-114

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 57.5

-114

Under 57.5

-114

DJ Moore (Bills)

Over 49.5

-114

Under 49.5

-114

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 43.5

-114

Under 43.5

-114

Quentin Johnston (Chargers)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Oronde Gadsden II (Chargers)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Tre Harris (Chargers)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

James Cook (Bills)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 79.5

-114

Under 79.5

-114

Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

Over 58.5

-114

Under 58.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Keaton Mitchell (Chargers)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Passing Yards

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 238.5

-114

Under 238.5

-114

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Over 224.5

-114

Under 224.5

-114

There are always opportunities to enjoy NFL micro betting. It’s generally the case that you will find team and player props in-game and bettors can use their insight to wager on outcomes such as the Next Punt, Turnover or Score Play.

Bills Standing on Eight Wins From Last Ten Home Matches

The Bills have eight wins and two losses in the last 10 home games, averaging 32.20 points scored and 24.20 points allowed.

The Chargers are 5-5 in their last 10 road games, averaging 16.80 points on offense and surrendering 20.90 on defense.

The last time the teams met at Highmark Stadium, the Bills defeated the Chargers 27-17.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O50.5	U50.5
Bills Home Stats		8-2	56.40	32.20	24.20	5	5
Chargers Away Stats		5-5	37.70	16.80	20.90	2	8

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O50.5 = Games Over 50.5 Points
• U50.5 = Games Under 50.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Los Angeles Chargers Stats

Buffalo Bills Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 36.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 37.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 50.5: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games
• Over 50.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 15.90 pts and allowed 20.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 16.80 pts and allowed 20.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 53.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 56.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 50.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 50.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.40 pts and allowed 23.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 32.20 pts and allowed 24.20 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 277.50 Yds. Allowed 312.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 113.10 Yds. Allowed 105.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 164.40 Yds. Allowed 207.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.80. Allowed 18.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.50. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.20. Committed by opponents 5.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 41.60 Yds. Gained 47.50 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 384.10 Yds. Allowed 293.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 164.60 Yds. Allowed 109.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 219.50 Yds. Allowed 184.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.90 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 23.80. Allowed 18.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.50. Committed by opponents 5.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 46.90 Yds. Gained 46.30 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 296.80 Yds. Allowed 298.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 104.20 Yds. Allowed 121.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 192.60 Yds. Allowed 177.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.40 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.80. Allowed 18.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.50. Committed by opponents 5.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 41.50 Yds. Gained 43.00 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 405.70 Yds. Allowed 302.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 150.30 Yds. Allowed 118.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 255.40 Yds. Allowed 183.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 4.30 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 24.50. Allowed 18.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.00. Committed by opponents 5.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.50 Yds. Gained 44.80 Yds

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