São Paulo vs Ceará Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 29 Sep 2025

Série A Betting Preview: São Paulo vs Ceará

São Paulo host Ceará in this Brazilian Série A game, with kick-off set for 19:00 on Monday 29 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Expect a Close Encounter

We’ll go for the underdogs Ceará at +0.75 for their clash against São Paulo. Taking the Asian Handicap odds of +105 means that the stake is divided between +0.5 and +1 which looks like the best play.

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1-1 Draw in Most Recent H2H

São Paulo have claimed five consecutive home wins. Their last game was a 1-0 road defeat against Santos. Hernan Crespo's men had one shot on target and enjoyed 56% possession.

On Thursday night, São Paulo were beaten 1-0 at home to LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores.

Ceará played Bahia at home in their previous game. It was a 1-1 draw. The Fortaleza team had just 38% possession and totalled three shots on goal, with Lourenco on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

São Paulo are unbeaten in the past ten matches against Ceará, with the last encounter ending in a 1-1 draw. The previous 10 H2H games have featured eight draws and two São Paulo victories.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
8	São Paulo	32	12	9	11	37	35	2	37:35	45
13	Ceará	32	10	9	13	30	30	0	30:30	39

View Full Table

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.5 goals from 4.3 shots on goal and 9.1 attempts. São Paulo have had 55.0% possession and 6.1 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 0.6 goals from 2.7 shots on goal and 6.8 attempts, while being awarded 3.7 corners.

Luciano Neves is the top scorer with 3 goals, while Gonzalo Tapia, Damian Bobadilla and Robert Arboleda each have 2. Nahuel Ferraresi is the top assists maker on 3.

Ceará have 2 victories, 4 defeats and 4 draws, with an average of 4.7 shots on goal, 9.7 attempts and 0.8 goals. Big Grandpa average 42.2% possession, 4.1 corners taken and 5.5 corners against them, while 1.1 goals have been conceded from 9.7 attempts and 4.0 shots on goal.

Antonio Galeano has landed 3 goals, Lourenco 2, with Pedro Henrique and two others scoring 1. Antonio Galeano is the top assists provider in the last 10 games with 2.

Confirmed Lineups

São Paulo confirmed lineup (3-5-2): Rafael (GK), Rafael Toloi, Robert Arboleda, Alan Franco, Cedric Soares, Alisson, Damian Bobadilla, Rodriguinho, Enzo Hernan Diaz, Luciano Neves, Ferreira.

Ceará confirmed lineup (4-3-3): Bruno (GK), Fabiano Silva, Marcos Victor, Willian Machado, Matheus Bahia, Richardson, Dieguinho, Lourenco, Antonio Galeano, Pedro Raul, Paulo Baya.

São Paulo vs Ceará Prediction & Betting Tips

Our São Paulo vs Ceará betting outlook has it all, including a trusted match forecast, our predicted score, best corners advice, top player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.

Match Prediction

Ceará +0.75 could be the best way forward at odds of +105 in this Série A encounter. We feel optimistic that the underdogs can punch above their weight and be tough to beat.

The team at Sportsgambler.com are right across the latest Série A injury news and the form guide also informs our football predictions. This data is combined with the latest stats.

Key São Paulo vs Ceará league stats:

• The +0.75 line has been covered by Ceará in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.75 line has been covered by Ceará in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.75 line has been covered by Ceará in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.75 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.75 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 11 of their last 20 games.
• The -0.75 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 8 of their last 10 games against Ceará.

Ceará +0.75 Probability

According to the top bookies, our pick has a 48.8% chance of landing a return. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

You have the choice to buy or sell goals depending on which direction you want to move the line. Decide whether or not you want to play it safer or take a riskier option.

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Our Match Prediction

Ceará Asian Hcp +0.75 @ +105 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

São Paulo 1 - 1 Ceará

When it comes to the correct score, we’re going to take a chance on a 1-1 outcome. We’ll go for the +550 that this happens and hopefully we’ll get a good run for our money.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Pedro Raul Garay da Silva Over 0.5 Shots On Target -127

Pedro Raul Garay da Silva (Ceará) can be wagered at -127 to have at least one shot on goal. Those wanting to back him should certainly look at the Shots on Target betting odds available.

Latest Pedro Raul Garay da Silva Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+410

First

+850

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-133

Shots

Over 2.5

+114

Under 2.5

-

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Antonio Galeano to Score +750

Antonio Galeano (Ceará) has registered three goals in his past five Série A away matches. When it comes to him finding the net, we believe the +750 available is appealing when backing him on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Antonio Galeano Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+1400

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Shots

Over 1.5

+115

Under 1.5

-

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Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -128

It has now been six consecutive Ceará games where the 9.5 Total Corners line has not been covered, while the same outcome has happened in four straight São Paulo home matches. We advise betting on the -128 that the sides won’t cover the line, with this Total Corners bet hopefully providing a return.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

São Paulo

Total

9.80 6.10 3.70

Home

9.60 5.30 4.30

Away

9.90 4.60 5.30

Ceará

Total

9.60 4.10 5.50

Home

9.80 4.90 4.90

Away

8.20 3.10 5.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-125

São Paulo Corners

Over 5.5

-128

Under 5.5

-108

Ceará Corners

Over 3.5

-108

Under 3.5

-128

Most Corners

1

-263

X

+750

2

+275

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São Paulo vs Ceará Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Bookies Think São Paulo Most Likely to Win

The latest São Paulo odds are -152 which leads to them being favourites in this Série A clash. It’s also implied by the bookmakers that they have a 60% prospect of securing a victory. The market implies that Ceará are the most unlikely to win at +475.

There’s a Half-Time Result market should you wish to predict the outcome at the break. Ceará are +475 here and the draw is +107, with São Paulo on offer at +132.

For those anticipating a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader for the Total Goals market. Providing that at least one side fails to score, then the No pick on the Both Teams to Score market will be a winner at -189.

For those wagering on Série A games, it’s all about heading to the top football betting sites where hundreds of markets await you. Pre-match and In-Play options are plentiful.

Full-Time Result

1

-152

X

+250

2

+475

Half-Time Result

1

+132

X

+107

2

+475

Double Chance

1X

-769

12

-370

X2

+108

Draw No Bet

1

-435

2

+280

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-114

2 Hcp +0.75

-110

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-189

Over 2.5

+143

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+132

No

-189

Luciano da Rocha is the First Goalscorer Favourite

Luciano da Rocha is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +400 and if you’re keen to back him to simply find the net, then the price is +210.

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+210

Anytime

+400

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+250

Anytime

+475

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

First

+275

Anytime

+500

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+280

Anytime

+525

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

First

+350

Anytime

+700

Oscar (São Paulo)

First

+350

Anytime

+700

Pedro Raul Garay da Silva (Ceará)

First

+410

Anytime

+850

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

First

+575

Anytime

+1150

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+600

Anytime

+1300

Lucca Sampaio Tavares (Ceará)

First

+650

Anytime

+1300

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

First

+650

Anytime

+1400

Antonio Galeano (Ceará)

First

+750

Anytime

+1400

Paulo Baya (Ceará)

First

+750

Anytime

+1400

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1600

Cédric Soares (São Paulo)

First

+950

Anytime

+1900

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

First

+950

Anytime

+1900

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Alisson Castro (São Paulo)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2000

João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço (Ceará)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

+120

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

+110

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

+105

Pedro Raul Garay da Silva (Ceará)

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-133

Oscar (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-141

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-147

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-222

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+148

Under 0.5

-238

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-263

Antonio Galeano (Ceará)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Paulo Baya (Ceará)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-313

Lucca Sampaio Tavares (Ceará)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-357

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-455

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço (Ceará)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-588

Cédric Soares (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Alisson Castro (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-625

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

-109

Under 3.5

-

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-122

Under 2.5

-

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-109

Under 2.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-120

Under 2.5

-

Pedro Raul Garay da Silva (Ceará)

Over 2.5

+114

Under 2.5

-

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-152

Under 1.5

-

Oscar (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-161

Under 1.5

-

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-122

Under 1.5

-

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-

Lucca Sampaio Tavares (Ceará)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Antonio Galeano (Ceará)

Over 1.5

+115

Under 1.5

-

Paulo Baya (Ceará)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

-

João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço (Ceará)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

-

São Paulo vs Ceará Lineups & Team News

Stay ahead of the game by checking the São Paulo vs Ceará team news before betting. We’ll share the predicted and confirmed lineups for Série A together with updated injury news.

São Paulo Team Page Ceará Team Page