Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 03 May 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Pachuca

Toluca meet Pachuca at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 21:15 on Sunday 3 May.

If you agree with our verdict that Toluca will have the edge when clashing with Pachuca, then you can back the home team at -141. We’re expecting a return with this Full-Time Result bet.

Deportivo Toluca landed a win when last in action. It was a 4-1 scoreline at home to Club León at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Antonio Mohamed's side had 41% possession and totalled eight shots on target, with Francisco Cordova, Fernando Arce, Jorge Diaz and Nicolas Castro scoring one goal each.

Pachuca have lost in back-to-back Liga MX outings. In a recent home game at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, they were turned over 2-0 by Pumas UNAM. They finished with just 33% possession and had five shots on goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have not lost any of the past seven games against Pachuca, with the last clash seeing a 1-1 draw played out at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. The past 10 H2H meetings have featured four Toluca victories, three draws and three Pachuca wins.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Pachuca	17	9	4	4	25	19	6	25:19	31
5	Toluca	17	8	6	3	28	16	12	28:16	30

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 4 wins, 3 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.9 goals from 5.9 shots on goal and 12.4 attempts. Los Diablos Rojos have averaged 56.9% possession and 5.6 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.4 goals from 4.2 shots on goal, 9.4 attempts and 4.2 corners.

Jorge Diaz, Nicolas Castro, Antonio Briseno, Jesus Angulo and Paulinho are joint-top scorers with 2 goals on the board. Jesus Gallardo has recorded the most assists with 3.

Tuzos have 5 victories, 3 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.6 goals from 4.8 shots on goal and 10.2 attempts. There’s been an average of 47.8% possession, 5.5 corners taken and 4.2 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.4 goals from 4.4 shots on goal and 8.8 attempts.

Victor Guzman has top scored with 5 goals, while Kenedy and Enner Valencia are next on 3 and 2. Brian Garcia has been top assists provider with 4 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Diego Barbosa, Bruno Mendez, Everardo Lopez, Alek Alvarez, Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Francisco Cordova, Jesus Angulo, Pavel Perez, Jorge Diaz.

Pachuca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Carlos Moreno (GK), Carlos Sanchez, Eduardo Bauermann, Sergio Barreto, Alan Bautista, Christian Rivera, Victor Guzman, Kenedy, Elias Montiel, Oussama Idrissi, Enner Valencia.

Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction & Betting Tips

Our expert Toluca vs Pachuca betting tips include a main match prediction, a correct score pick, corners forecast, standout player prop selections and bet builder advice. Explore each section below for detailed insights.

Match Prediction

We’ll back Toluca with a fair degree of confidence for this Liga MX clash. This looks a value pick at -141 which means we can secure a healthy return if they’re able to win.

We’re always aware of the injuries and suspensions for each team before we decide which way to go with our football picks. The form and data also help the Liga MX experts at Sportsgambler.com when it comes to a betting view on the action.

Key Toluca vs Pachuca league stats:

• Toluca have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Toluca have won 13 of their last 20 games at home.
• Pachuca have lost their last 2 games.

According to the odds, there’s a 58.5% likelihood of our pick winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

There’s the chance to secure bigger odds by combining Toluca to win with BTTS No if you think that they’ll not only oblige with a victory but also keep a clean sheet during the ninety minutes.

Before you bet, take a look at our complete guide to the best free bets and new customer bonuses on offer now.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -141 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 2, 03:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 3 - 1 Pachuca

Toluca are available to back at +900 to secure a 3-1 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Castro to Score +270

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has been among the goals in back-to-back Liga MX games. We’re happy to take the +270 for this Anytime Goalscorer bet as there’s value in the odds that he finds the net at least once.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+800

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Toluca Under 5.5 Corners -149

We’ve seen an average of 4.20 corners for Toluca in their past 5 home matches, while Pachuca have let the opposition have an average of 4.20 corners in their previous 10 games. Let’s go along with this betting trend and back Toluca to go under the Team Corners line at odds of -149.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.80 5.60 4.20

Home

8.40 5.10 3.30

Away

9.90 6.10 3.80

Pachuca

Total

9.70 5.50 4.20

Home

8.40 4.50 3.90

Away

8.80 4.50 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-122

Under 9.5

-122

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-108

Under 5.5

-143

Pachuca Corners

Over 3.5

-156

Under 3.5

-100

Most Corners

1

-172

X

+650

2

+170

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Pachuca Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookies have Deportivo Toluca at -128 when it comes to Full-Time Result. This implies that the favourites are 56% likely to win this Liga MX encounter according to the latest betting odds. Pachuca are the underdogs at +310 which implies a lesser percentage prospect of winning.

There are different ways to bet on Toluca including the Asian Handicap -0.5 market. This option is -127, although Pachuca +0.5 is a viable alternative at -102 and you can cheer on the draw with the latter.

The odds suggest that Over 2.5 Goals is a strong probability in this exciting contest. The Yes pick in the Both Teams to Score market is considered to be the most likely result and it’s trading at -179.

The leading football betting sites offer hundreds of markets when it comes to Liga MX matches. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Full-Time Result

1

-128

X

+275

2

+310

Half-Time Result

1

+128

X

+135

2

+310

Double Chance

1X

-476

12

-417

X2

-109

Draw No Bet

1

-303

2

+190

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-127

2 Hcp +0.5

-102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+115

Over 2.5

-161

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-179

No

+120

João Paulo Paulinho is the market leader at +290 to be First Goalscorer but if you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

João Paulo Paulinho (Toluca)

First

-100

Anytime

+290

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+185

Anytime

+525

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+280

Anytime

+800

Enner Valencia (Pachuca)

First

+300

Anytime

+850

Kenedy (Pachuca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+360

Anytime

+950

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+370

Anytime

+1000

Gael Álvarez (Pachuca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+475

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+475

Anytime

+1200

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Oussama Idrissi (Pachuca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Alexei Dominguez (Pachuca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Sebastian Cordova (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1500

Alán Bautista (Pachuca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1600

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1900

Christian Rivera (Pachuca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Stats: Liga MX matches only
Toluca have not tasted defeat at Estadio Nemesio Diez in ten straight matches. Antonio Mohamed's side have recorded seven victories and three draws in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 2.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80.

Pachuca have five defeats, three wins and two draws in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.00 goals per match and conceding 1.30.

Toluca were involved in a 2-2 draw when last meeting Pachuca at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The 8 H2H games most recently played at Estadio Nemesio Diez have included four Pachuca victories, one draw and three triumphs for Toluca.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-3-0	3.20	2.40	0.80	5	5	7	3
Pachuca Away Stats		3-2-5	2.30	1.00	1.30	5	5	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Pachuca Lineups & Team News

Before placing any bets on Toluca vs Tuzos, check the team news first. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups and the latest on injuries.

Toluca Team Page Pachuca Team Page

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