Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 07 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury

The Chicago Sky square off against the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Tuesday, July 7.

We expect the Mercury to cover the -3.5 line on the spread. This is a good number and that’s why we’re playing them at -114 to overcome the Sky.

Chicago Sky were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 98-90 (OT) reverse against Las Vegas Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Phoenix Mercury won their last game which was at home. It was a 90-67 triumph against Seattle Storm.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 91-83 in favor of the Mercury when they last played the Sky, with the matchup taking place at Mortgage Matchup Center. The Mercury have triumphed in their previous eight meetings against the Sky. On the head-to-head front, it has been 9 wins out of 10.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
12  Mercury	8	13	1769	1803	-34	3-6	5-7	3W
13  Sky	6	14	1732	1799	-67	3-7	3-7	2L

View Full Standings

Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Explore our best Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury picks, including our main match prediction, correct score forecast, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

We’re confident of backing Mercury to cover the -3.5 spread in this WNBA matchup. This is a more than generous line and the favorites look a value pick at -114.

Getting the lowdown on injuries and analyzing the form guide are key steps before making basketball picks. We also put strong emphasis on WNBA stats, where a data-led approach often leads to smarter predictions.

Key Sky vs Mercury stats:

• The -3.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The -3.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 2 consecutive games.
• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sky in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sky in 15 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sky in 2 consecutive games.
• The -3.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 8 consecutive games against Sky.

Mercury -3.5 Probability

Based on the odds from the top betting apps, our pick has a 53.2% prospect of winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

If you want to land a big potential return from a small stake, then a Bet Builder could be a good way to go. Back the Mercury against the spread in a combination with other selections.

Unlock top value before betting. Our guide lists the latest offers and welcome bonuses you won’t want to miss.

Our Game Prediction

Mercury -3.5 @ -114 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 7, 02:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Valeriane Ayayi Over 12.5 Points -120

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) can be wagered to register Over 12.5 points at -120. We’ll place a bet that she is able to cover an appealing total for this Player Points wager.

Latest Valeriane Ayayi Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 12.5

-120

Under 12.5

-110

Rebounds

Over 5.5

+101

Under 5.5

-137

---

Azura Stevens Under 11.5 Points -110

Azura Stevens (Sky) is available at -110 to record Under 11.5 points. It’s anticipated that her Player Points are going to fall below the total, with this bet offering plenty of appeal.

Latest Azura Stevens Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 11.5

-116

Under 11.5

-111

Assists

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Rebounds

Over 6.5

-122

Under 6.5

-106

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Sky 88 - 94 Mercury

For those wanting a big return from a small stake, consider the correct score lines. For example, the Mercury can be backed to win 94-88 at massive betting odds.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Phoenix Mercury are -179 favorites and that means a 64% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. The market suggests that Chicago Sky are least likely to win at +144.

The spread currently stands at 4.5 and the total points line is 175.5. A Total bet relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 175.5 at -106.

No matter if you're betting before the tip-off or during the live women's hoops action, the top basketball sportsbooks have you covered with countless game lines and team props. It’s a major advantage to have such a deep pool of options at your fingertips.

Moneyline

Sky

+144

Mercury

-179

Point Spread

Sky +4.5

-114

Mercury -4.5

-106

Total Points

Under 175.5

-114

Over 175.5

-106

Kahleah Copper is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -102 to score Over 20.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -127.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 20.5

-102

Under 20.5

-127

Kamilla Cardoso (Sky)

Over 15.5

-123

Under 15.5

-105

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-100

Under 15.5

-130

Sydney Taylor (Sky)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 12.5

-120

Under 12.5

-110

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 11.5

-119

Under 11.5

-109

Azura Stevens (Sky)

Over 11.5

-116

Under 11.5

-111

Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Lexi Held (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-127

Under 8.5

-102

Courtney Vandersloot (Sky)

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-104

Noemie Brochant (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-130

Under 7.5

-100

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+102

Under 8.5

-132

Courtney Vandersloot (Sky)

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

-100

Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky)

Over 3.5

-149

Under 3.5

+115

Kamilla Cardoso (Sky)

Over 2.5

+141

Under 2.5

-185

Azura Stevens (Sky)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Kamilla Cardoso (Sky)

Over 8.5

+104

Under 8.5

-135

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

+107

Under 7.5

-139

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-133

Under 6.5

+103

Azura Stevens (Sky)

Over 6.5

-122

Under 6.5

-106

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 5.5

+101

Under 5.5

-137

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-133

Under 3.5

+103

Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-169

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Chicago Sky Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 185.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 171.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 174.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 91.30 pts and allowed 93.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 82.70 pts and allowed 88.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 178.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 174.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.70 pts and allowed 85.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 87.70 pts and allowed 91.10 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Aces	15	6	1889	1815	74	6-4	9-2	1L
2  Lynx	15	6	1894	1696	198	6-4	9-2	2L
3  Valkyries	15	7	1805	1689	116	10-3	5-4	5W
4  Wings	13	8	1855	1786	69	6-3	7-5	2W
5  Liberty	13	8	1855	1756	99	7-4	6-4	1W
6  Fever	12	8	1869	1778	91	8-4	4-4	2W
7  Dream	12	9	1837	1762	75	6-3	6-6	5L
8  Mystics	10	10	1622	1690	-68	4-5	6-5	1L
9  Tempo	9	11	1801	1835	-34	5-5	4-6	2L
10  Fire	9	12	1770	1918	-148	6-5	3-7	1W
11  Sparks	8	11	1662	1779	-117	3-7	5-4	3L
12  Mercury	8	13	1769	1803	-34	3-6	5-7	3W
13  Sky	6	14	1732	1799	-67	3-7	3-7	2L
14  Storm	6	17	1843	1955	-112	4-8	2-9	1W
15  Sun	5	16	1679	1821	-142	3-8	2-8	1W

Where to Bet on Basketball Games

Top Basketball Pages