Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury

The Connecticut Sun face the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Friday, July 17.

The best betting angle could be the Mercury against the spread. You can land -115 that the market leaders are able to cover the -4.5 line and they are more than capable in their meeting with the Sun.

Connecticut Sun previous game saw them claim a 90-87 home win over Portland Fire at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Phoenix Mercury were defeated in their last game. On the road, they suffered a 104-100 reverse against Minnesota Lynx at Target Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 87-84 in favor of the Sun when they last played the Mercury, with the matchup taking place at Mohegan Sun Arena. The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in six Sun victories.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
10  Mercury	16	28	3712	3854	-142	7-15	9-13	1L
14  Sun	11	33	3470	3875	-405	8-14	3-19	1W

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Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Our Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury tips include the main match prediction, a correct score forecast, bet builder advice and top player prop picks. Each section below offers expert insight into the key betting angles.

Game Prediction

Mercury should secure a comfortable win and a bet on the spread could be the best way forward in this WNBA showdown. Back our pick off -4.5 to cover the line at -115.

To deliver the best possible basketball predictions, we start by locking in the team news and taking time to review the latest form. There’s also no shortage of data to crunch from the most up-to-date WNBA stats available.

Key Sun vs Mercury stats:

• The +4.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sun in 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +4.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sun in 12 of their last 20 games on the road.

Merc -4.5 Probability

According to the top basketball betting sites, there’s a 53.5% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this WNBA bet.

There are options to buy and sell different amounts of points and effectively choose the line which makes the most appeal. It all comes down to how safe or risky you want to play things.

Before your next wager, read our guide featuring today’s top betting offers, free bet deals, and sign-up bonuses.

Our Game Prediction

Mercury -4.5 @ -115 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 17, 02:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 7.5 Rebounds -141

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) is available at -141 to total Under 7.5 rebounds. We think that she will fail to cover this total and this Player Rebounds bet can be taken with confidence.

Latest Olivia Nelson-Ododa Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 11.5

-118

Under 11.5

-112

Assists

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-179

Rebounds

Over 7.5

+104

Under 7.5

-141

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DeWanna Bonner Over 12.5 Points -128

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) is available at -128 to register Over 12.5 points. We are going to choose a Player Points prop bet which will hopefully see her cover the line.

Latest DeWanna Bonner Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 12.5

-128

Under 12.5

-104

Rebounds

Over 6.5

-143

Under 6.5

+105

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Sun 80 - 89 Mercury

There are stacks of correct score lines available and we’re looking at the Mercury to achieve a winning scoreline of 89-80 where a huge potential return is on the cards.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Phoenix Mercury are -179 favorites and that means a 64% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. Connecticut Sun are the underdogs at +146 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The spread currently stands at 4.5 and the total points line is 163.5. The Totals offers basketball bettors an alternative way of getting involved. If you're keen on Over 163.5, this selection is available at -108.

The best betting sites offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to women's basketball matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Sun

+146

Mercury

-179

Point Spread

Sun +4.5

-112

Mercury -4.5

-108

Total Points

Under 163.5

-112

Over 163.5

-108

Kahleah Copper is favorite when it comes to hitting the most buckets. You can get -109 that she goes Over 21.5 points and -122 when it comes to Under.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 21.5

-109

Under 21.5

-122

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-118

Under 14.5

-112

Brittney Griner (Sun)

Over 13.5

-128

Under 13.5

-103

Leïla Lacan (Sun)

Over 12.5

-132

Under 12.5

-102

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 12.5

-128

Under 12.5

-104

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun)

Over 11.5

-118

Under 11.5

-112

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-123

Under 10.5

-108

Diamond Miller (Sun)

Over 8.5

-118

Under 8.5

-114

Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun)

Over 8.5

-102

Under 8.5

-128

Noemie Brochant (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-122

Under 5.5

-109

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+106

Under 8.5

-145

Leïla Lacan (Sun)

Over 4.5

-135

Under 4.5

-101

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-114

Under 3.5

-120

Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun)

Over 3.5

+105

Under 3.5

-143

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-185

Brittney Griner (Sun)

Over 2.5

+137

Under 2.5

-189

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-179

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun)

Over 7.5

+104

Under 7.5

-141

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-108

Under 6.5

-127

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-143

Under 6.5

+105

Brittney Griner (Sun)

Over 5.5

-156

Under 5.5

+114

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-154

Under 3.5

+113

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+119

Under 3.5

-161

Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun)

Over 3.5

+127

Under 3.5

-172

Diamond Miller (Sun)

Over 2.5

+116

Under 2.5

-159

An increasing number of basketball bettors are now enjoying micro betting and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Connecticut Sun Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 166.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 165.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 164.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 164.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.10 pts and allowed 81.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.50 pts and allowed 86.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 174.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 176.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 164.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 164.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.60 pts and allowed 89.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.40 pts and allowed 90.80 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	33	11	3997	3681	316	15-7	18-4	1W
2  Valkyries	32	12	3615	3305	310	17-5	15-7	1W
3  Aces	31	13	4025	3776	249	15-7	16-6	7W
4  Dream	30	14	4019	3717	302	15-7	15-7	5W
5  Mystics	28	16	3696	3640	56	15-7	13-9	4W
6  Fever	28	16	4222	3979	243	15-7	13-9	1L
7  Wings	27	17	3933	3751	182	16-6	11-11	1W
8  Liberty	26	18	3941	3802	139	14-8	12-10	2L
9  Fire	17	27	3794	4005	-211	9-13	8-14	1W
10  Mercury	16	28	3712	3854	-142	7-15	9-13	1L
11  Sky	16	28	3818	3989	-171	11-11	5-17	1L
12  Sparks	16	28	3830	4018	-188	8-14	8-14	2L
13  Tempo	11	33	3769	4152	-383	7-15	4-18	8L
14  Sun	11	33	3470	3875	-405	8-14	3-19	1W
15  Storm	8	36	3616	3913	-297	6-16	2-20	5L

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