Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Jul 2026
WNBA Betting Preview: Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
The Connecticut Sun face the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Friday, July 17.
The best betting angle could be the Mercury against the spread. You can land -115 that the market leaders are able to cover the -4.5 line and they are more than capable in their meeting with the Sun.
Connecticut Sun previous game saw them claim a 90-87 home win over Portland Fire at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Phoenix Mercury were defeated in their last game. On the road, they suffered a 104-100 reverse against Minnesota Lynx at Target Center.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The scoreline was 87-84 in favor of the Sun when they last played the Mercury, with the matchup taking place at Mohegan Sun Arena. The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in six Sun victories.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13
Mercury
|
8 | 17 | 2082 | 2182 | -100 | 3-8 | 5-9 | 4L |
14
Sun
|
6 | 18 | 1913 | 2073 | -160 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 1W |
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
Our Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury tips include the main match prediction, a correct score forecast, bet builder advice and top player prop picks. Each section below offers expert insight into the key betting angles.
Game Prediction
Mercury should secure a comfortable win and a bet on the spread could be the best way forward in this WNBA showdown. Back our pick off -4.5 to cover the line at -115.
To deliver the best possible basketball predictions, we start by locking in the team news and taking time to review the latest form. There’s also no shortage of data to crunch from the most up-to-date WNBA stats available.
Key Sun vs Mercury stats:
Mercury -4.5 Probability
According to the top basketball betting sites, there’s a 53.5% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this WNBA bet.
There are options to buy and sell different amounts of points and effectively choose the line which makes the most appeal. It all comes down to how safe or risky you want to play things.
Before your next wager, read our guide featuring today’s top betting offers, free bet deals, and sign-up bonuses.
Player Prop Picks
Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) is available at -141 to total Under 7.5 rebounds. We think that she will fail to cover this total and this Player Rebounds bet can be taken with confidence.
Latest Olivia Nelson-Ododa Player Prop Odds
DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) is available at -128 to register Over 12.5 points. We are going to choose a Player Points prop bet which will hopefully see her cover the line.
Latest DeWanna Bonner Player Prop Odds
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Our same game parlay pick is Mercury -4.5 on the spread, Over 163.5 and Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) to record Under 7.5 rebounds.
The same game parlay option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same basketball game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored wager on the contest which interests them most.
Correct Score Prediction
80
-
89
Mercury
There are stacks of correct score lines available and we’re looking at the Mercury to achieve a winning scoreline of 89-80 where a huge potential return is on the cards.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Phoenix Mercury are -192 favorites and that means a 66% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. Connecticut Sun are the underdogs at +156 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.
The spread currently stands at 4.5 and the total points line is 163.5. The Totals offers basketball bettors an alternative way of getting involved. If you're keen on Over 163.5, this selection is available at -106.
The best betting sites offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to women's basketball matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.
Kahleah Copper is favorite when it comes to hitting the most buckets. You can get -109 that she goes Over 21.5 points and -122 when it comes to Under.
- WNBA: 06/09 2025 Mercury 84 Sun 87
- WNBA: 06/08 2025 Sun 66 Mercury 82
- WNBA: 19/06 2025 Mercury 83 Sun 75
- WNBA: 14/09 2024 Sun 88 Mercury 69
- WNBA: 14/07 2024 Mercury 69 Sun 96
- WNBA: 02/07 2024 Sun 83 Mercury 72
- WNBA: 29/05 2024 Mercury 47 Sun 70
- WNBA: 01/09 2023 Mercury 74 Sun 84
- WNBA: 11/08 2023 Sun 84 Mercury 90
- WNBA: 19/07 2023 Sun 66 Mercury 72
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Connecticut Sun Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
- 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road
- -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
- -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 164.10 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 165.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 163.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.00 pts and allowed 82.10 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 77.40 pts and allowed 88.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 172.90 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 175.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 163.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.90 pts and allowed 88.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 86.20 pts and allowed 89.50 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
19 | 6 | 2270 | 2048 | 222 | 9-4 | 10-2 | 4W |
2
Valkyries
|
18 | 7 | 2055 | 1903 | 152 | 10-3 | 8-4 | 8W |
3
Aces
|
17 | 7 | 2158 | 2062 | 96 | 7-5 | 10-2 | 1L |
4
Wings
|
16 | 8 | 2147 | 2049 | 98 | 7-3 | 9-5 | 5W |
5
Dream
|
14 | 10 | 2119 | 2034 | 85 | 8-4 | 6-6 | 1W |
6
Fever
|
14 | 10 | 2237 | 2136 | 101 | 8-5 | 6-5 | 1L |
7
Liberty
|
13 | 11 | 2108 | 2027 | 81 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 3L |
8
Mystics
|
12 | 11 | 1841 | 1906 | -65 | 5-6 | 7-5 | 1L |
9
Fire
|
11 | 14 | 2114 | 2244 | -130 | 6-6 | 5-8 | 1W |
10
Sparks
|
10 | 13 | 2049 | 2155 | -106 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 2L |
11
Tempo
|
10 | 14 | 2126 | 2196 | -70 | 6-8 | 4-6 | 1L |
12
Sky
|
8 | 16 | 2082 | 2153 | -71 | 4-7 | 4-9 | 1W |
|
13
Mercury
|
8 | 17 | 2082 | 2182 | -100 | 3-8 | 5-9 | 4L |
|
14
Sun
|
6 | 18 | 1913 | 2073 | -160 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 1W |
15
Storm
|
6 | 20 | 2090 | 2223 | -133 | 4-8 | 2-12 | 3L |
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