Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Jul 2026
WNBA Betting Preview: Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
The Connecticut Sun face the Phoenix Mercury, with tip-off scheduled for 19:00 on Sunday, July 19.
We’re heading to the totals after finding that the line is set at a generous 164.5 points. Expect the Sun and the Mercury to surpass this number at -110.
Sun Have Won 7 of Previous 10 H2H Matchups
Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut Sun met two nights ago, with Sun claiming a 96-83 win. The past 10 H2H games have seen the Sun land seven wins.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13
Mercury
|
8 | 18 | 2165 | 2278 | -113 | 3-9 | 5-9 | 5L |
14
Sun
|
7 | 18 | 2009 | 2156 | -147 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 2W |
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
We’ve broken down Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury from every angle, offering our expert match prediction, expected final score, best player prop recommendations and a well-constructed bet builder.
Game Prediction
The teams are certainly capable of exceeding the set points total line which leads us to predict Over 164.5 as a value pick at -110 for this WNBA contest.
We closely track recent form and look for patterns that may impact the outcome. The same goes for injuries to key players. When combined with the most relevant WNBA stats, this gives us a strong foundation for accurate basketball predictions.
Key Sun vs Mercury stats:
Over 164.5 Probability
The best sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 52.4% likelihood of this pick winning. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. This WNBA bet can therefore be backed with confidence.
Want more juice from your Over wager on the Totals? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier bet. You can choose from a range of options.
Before placing your wager, explore the best betting offers. Our in-depth bonus guide features a wide range of promotions to choose from.
Player Prop Picks
Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury) can be backed to have Over 2.5 assists at -164. We can place a Player Assists bet with confidence, with our pick expected to cover the total.
Latest Monique Akoa Makani Player Prop Odds
Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be wagered to rack up Over 13.5 points at -123. We think this is the pick of the prop bets that are on offer when it comes to backing her on Player Points.
Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Take a same game parlay that incorporates Over 164.5 followed by Sun to cover the +4.5 spread. Add in Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury) to get Over 2.5 assists.
A same game parlay allows basketball bettors to place a multiple wager on the same game. You can go through the available betting lines and choose the outcomes that you think will happen. The odds for each selection are then combined together.
Correct Score Prediction
84
-
86
Mercury
A close game could be on the cards. We’ll wager the Mercury to secure a 86-84 win at massive odds and this correct score pick should hopefully be a fun one.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Phoenix Mercury are -161 favorites and that means a 62% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. Connecticut Sun are the underdogs at +130 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.
The current spread is 3.5 and the total points line is 165.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you want to wager Over 165.5, there are odds of -112.
The good news is that you can access a wide range of team props and game lines for most matchups. The best basketball sportsbooks offer a great selection of pre-game and in-game wagering options.
Kahleah Copper is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can back -125 that she gets Over 20.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -103.
- WNBA: 18/07 2026 Sun 96 Mercury 83
- WNBA: 06/09 2025 Mercury 84 Sun 87
- WNBA: 06/08 2025 Sun 66 Mercury 82
- WNBA: 19/06 2025 Mercury 83 Sun 75
- WNBA: 14/09 2024 Sun 88 Mercury 69
- WNBA: 14/07 2024 Mercury 69 Sun 96
- WNBA: 02/07 2024 Sun 83 Mercury 72
- WNBA: 29/05 2024 Mercury 47 Sun 70
- WNBA: 01/09 2023 Mercury 74 Sun 84
- WNBA: 11/08 2023 Sun 84 Mercury 90
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Connecticut Sun Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
- 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
- -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 166.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 165.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 164.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
- Over 164.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.10 pts and allowed 81.90 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.50 pts and allowed 86.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 174.60 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 176.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 164.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 164.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.60 pts and allowed 89.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.40 pts and allowed 90.80 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
20 | 6 | 2371 | 2141 | 230 | 10-4 | 10-2 | 5W |
2
Valkyries
|
19 | 7 | 2129 | 1972 | 157 | 11-3 | 8-4 | 9W |
3
Aces
|
17 | 7 | 2158 | 2062 | 96 | 7-5 | 10-2 | 1L |
4
Wings
|
16 | 8 | 2147 | 2049 | 98 | 7-3 | 9-5 | 5W |
5
Fever
|
16 | 10 | 2455 | 2331 | 124 | 10-5 | 6-5 | 2W |
6
Dream
|
15 | 10 | 2230 | 2126 | 104 | 8-4 | 7-6 | 2W |
7
Liberty
|
13 | 12 | 2196 | 2135 | 61 | 7-5 | 6-7 | 4L |
8
Mystics
|
12 | 12 | 1910 | 1980 | -70 | 5-6 | 7-6 | 2L |
9
Fire
|
11 | 15 | 2207 | 2345 | -138 | 6-6 | 5-9 | 1L |
10
Sparks
|
10 | 14 | 2131 | 2251 | -120 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 3L |
11
Tempo
|
10 | 15 | 2218 | 2307 | -89 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 2L |
12
Sky
|
9 | 16 | 2178 | 2235 | -57 | 5-7 | 4-9 | 2W |
|
13
Mercury
|
8 | 18 | 2165 | 2278 | -113 | 3-9 | 5-9 | 5L |
|
14
Sun
|
7 | 18 | 2009 | 2156 | -147 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 2W |
15
Storm
|
6 | 21 | 2197 | 2333 | -136 | 4-8 | 2-13 | 4L |
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