Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 29 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury

The Golden State Valkyries go up against the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Wednesday, July 29.

The Valkyries should be taken against the spread at -5.5 with our prediction being for them to achieve a comfortable margin of victory over the Mercury. Back the favorites at the -106 that's available.

Golden State Valkyries were defeated in their previous game. They were beaten at home to Washington Mystics by a 90-82 scoreline at Chase Center.

Phoenix Mercury triumphed in their last game. It was on the road where Los Angeles Sparks were beaten 86-82 at Crypto.com Arena.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Valkyries have beaten the Mercury in their last two meetings, winning by 95-79 and 87-81 scorelines. Both matchups were played at Chase Center. The Mercury have won four of the past 6 games that these teams have played.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
2  Valkyries	31	11	3457	3140	317	17-5	14-6	6W
11  Mercury	15	27	3543	3668	-125	6-14	9-13	1L

View Full Standings

Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Join us as we dissect the top Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury betting picks — from the main match prediction and scoreline forecast to standout player props and a value-focused bet builder.

Game Prediction

We are confident that Valkyries will cover the spread in this WNBA showdown. -5.5 seems a more than generous line and you can get -106 that they will win by a bigger margin.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our WNBA handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Key Valkyries vs Mercury stats:

• The -5.5 line has been covered by Valkyries in 4 consecutive games on the road.
• The -5.5 line has been covered by Valkyries in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The +5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Mercury in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Mercury in 2 consecutive games against Valkyries.

Valkyries -5.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks make it a 51.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability close to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

If you are looking for bigger odds, then you are able to move the line. Choose from a range of options and get rewarded if your point spread pick exceeds expectations.

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Our Game Prediction

Valkyries -5.5 @ -106 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 29, 02:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 Points -130

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be wagered to record Under 14.5 points at -130. Should you agree with our verdict that she doesn’t reach this total, you can go under the line.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-100

Under 14.5

-130

Assists

Over 8.5

-141

Under 8.5

+108

Rebounds

Over 7.5

-125

Under 7.5

-103

---

Gabby Williams Over 14.5 Points -109

Gabby Williams (Valkyries) can be backed to score Over 14.5 points at -109. We are happy to back Overs when it comes to her Player Points, with the line making plenty of appeal.

Latest Gabby Williams Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-109

Under 14.5

-119

Assists

Over 2.5

+152

Under 2.5

-200

Rebounds

Over 2.5

-145

Under 2.5

+111

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Valkyries 85 - 77 Mercury

There’s a big payout on the cards should you correctly predict the correct score. We’re siding with the Valkyries to claim a 85-77 victory which will hopefully go close.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Golden State Valkyries are regarded as likeliest victors for this WNBA game and the -149 about them triumphing means a 60% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. At +122, Phoenix Mercury are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The spread is calculated to be 2.5, while total points comes in at 157.5. Having a bet on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball wagers. If you fancy Over 157.5, this outcome can be backed at -106.

Women's hoops fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the huge selection of team props and game lines which are available for every matchup on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

Valkyries

-149

Mercury

+122

Point Spread

Valkyries -2.5

-118

Mercury +2.5

-104

Total Points

Under 157.5

-114

Over 157.5

-106

Kahleah Copper is favorite when it comes to getting the most points. You can get -100 that she goes Over 19.5 points and -130 when it comes to Under.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 19.5

-100

Under 19.5

-130

Gabby Williams (Valkyries)

Over 14.5

-109

Under 14.5

-119

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-100

Under 14.5

-130

Veronica Burton (Valkyries)

Over 11.5

-115

Under 11.5

-112

Janelle Salaun (Valkyries)

Over 10.5

-125

Under 10.5

-103

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-109

Under 9.5

-119

Kayla Thornton (Valkyries)

Over 9.5

-109

Under 9.5

-119

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-103

Under 9.5

-125

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-141

Under 8.5

+108

Veronica Burton (Valkyries)

Over 6.5

+106

Under 6.5

-137

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+124

Under 2.5

-161

Gabby Williams (Valkyries)

Over 2.5

+152

Under 2.5

-200

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-125

Under 7.5

-103

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-139

Under 5.5

+107

Kayla Thornton (Valkyries)

Over 4.5

-139

Under 4.5

+107

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-114

Under 3.5

-114

Veronica Burton (Valkyries)

Over 3.5

-101

Under 3.5

-128

Janelle Salaun (Valkyries)

Over 3.5

-105

Under 3.5

-123

Gabby Williams (Valkyries)

Over 2.5

-145

Under 2.5

+111

It’s good to consider all wagering options when it comes to basketball and micro betting can be an exciting way to get involved in the action. When everything goes in-game, consider whether the next shot will be a Two or a Three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Golden State Valkyries Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -5.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +5.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 150.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 156.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 155.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 155.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 78.70 pts and allowed 71.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.40 pts and allowed 77.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 170.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 155.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 155.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.40 pts and allowed 87.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 83.60 pts and allowed 87.30 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	31	10	3733	3430	303	14-7	17-3	3L
2  Valkyries	31	11	3457	3140	317	17-5	14-6	6W
3  Aces	28	13	3738	3538	200	13-7	15-6	4W
4  Dream	28	14	3841	3568	273	15-7	13-7	3W
5  Fever	27	14	3983	3723	260	14-6	13-8	3W
6  Wings	26	16	3744	3573	171	16-6	10-10	6W
7  Liberty	25	16	3686	3555	131	14-6	11-10	2W
8  Mystics	25	16	3423	3401	22	13-7	12-9	1W
9  Fire	16	26	3620	3818	-198	8-13	8-13	3L
10  Sparks	15	26	3571	3769	-198	7-13	8-13	1L
11  Mercury	15	27	3543	3668	-125	6-14	9-13	1L
12  Sky	15	27	3628	3803	-175	10-11	5-16	5L
13  Tempo	11	30	3534	3854	-320	7-14	4-16	5L
14  Sun	10	31	3217	3614	-397	7-13	3-18	4L
15  Storm	8	34	3448	3712	-264	6-15	2-19	3L

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