Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 09 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury

The Indiana Fever battle the Phoenix Mercury, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Thursday, July 9.

Our betting prediction is to confidently back the Fever on the Moneyline. You can get -105 that the road team get the better of the Mercury when all is said and done.

Indiana Fever suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 106-92 scoreline occurred on the road at Crypto.com Arena against Los Angeles Sparks.

Phoenix Mercury were defeated last time out. They were beaten at home to Chicago Sky by a 77-66 scoreline.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was the Mercury who came out on top when they last played the Fever. At Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 111-109 win was recorded. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Fever win seven times.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
5  Fever	14	9	2162	2048	114	8-4	6-5	2W
12  Mercury	8	17	2082	2182	-100	3-8	5-9	4L

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Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Game Prediction

The pick is that Fever will outscore their opponents, with odds of -105 currently available that the road team win this WNBA contest. That looks a price worth taking on this value selection.

Our basketball predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into up-to-date WNBA stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key Fever vs Mercury stats:

• Fever have won 6 of their last 10 games.
• Fever have won 12 of their last 20 games.
• Mercury have lost 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Mercury have lost 13 of their last 20 games.
• Mercury have lost 7 of their last 10 games against Fever.

Fever Moneyline Probability

The best sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 51.3% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our cappers have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

The Fever can be backed in different ways and you might find the odds more attractive when you check out the Point Spread or the Result & Both Teams to Score lines.

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Our Game Prediction

Fever Moneyline @ -105 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 9, 04:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Valeriane Ayayi Under 4.5 Rebounds -100

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) can be backed to have Under 4.5 rebounds at -100. We’re pretty confident that this Player Rebounds wager will end up falling short of the line.

Latest Valeriane Ayayi Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 10.5

-127

Under 10.5

-105

Rebounds

Over 4.5

-135

Under 4.5

-100

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Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 Points -118

Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) can be wagered to total Over 23.5 points at -118. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Kelsey Mitchell Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 23.5

-115

Under 23.5

-112

Assists

Over 2.5

-156

Under 2.5

+121

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Fever 91 - 86 Mercury

We’re going for the Fever to achieve a 91-86 win and the good news is that there are massive odds for this outcome. A small stake can return a potentially large amount.

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Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

You can back Phoenix Mercury at -106 to win against Indiana Fever, with the latter trading at -114. From a percentage point-of-view, the leading WNBA sportsbooks give the visiting team a 53% chance of success.

The spread currently stands at 1.5 and the total points line is 171.5. Having a bet on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball wagers. If you’re going for Over 171.5, then the odds are -114.

You can find a wide range of team props and game lines for every women's hoops matchup, with the top basketball sportsbooks creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Fever

-114

Mercury

-106

Point Spread

Fever +1.5

-120

Mercury -1.5

-102

Total Points

Under 171.5

-106

Over 171.5

-114

Kelsey Mitchell is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -115 to score Over 23.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -112.

Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)

Over 23.5

-115

Under 23.5

-112

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 20.5

-101

Under 20.5

-128

Aliyah Boston (Fever)

Over 17.5

-109

Under 17.5

-119

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-111

Under 14.5

-116

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-127

Under 10.5

-105

Lexie Hull (Fever)

Over 9.5

+103

Under 9.5

-133

Monique Billings (Fever)

Over 8.5

-105

Under 8.5

-123

Lexi Held (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+102

Under 8.5

-132

Tyasha Harris (Fever)

Over 7.5

-125

Under 7.5

-103

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+103

Under 8.5

-133

Tyasha Harris (Fever)

Over 4.5

+128

Under 4.5

-167

Aliyah Boston (Fever)

Over 3.5

-103

Under 3.5

-125

Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)

Over 2.5

-156

Under 2.5

+121

Aliyah Boston (Fever)

Over 9.5

+109

Under 9.5

-141

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

+113

Under 7.5

-147

Monique Billings (Fever)

Over 6.5

-127

Under 6.5

-102

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 4.5

-135

Under 4.5

-100

Lexie Hull (Fever)

Over 4.5

+104

Under 4.5

-135

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-105

Under 3.5

-123

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Indiana Fever Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 193.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 176.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 173.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 173.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 99.10 pts and allowed 94.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 86.70 pts and allowed 89.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 171.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 174.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 173.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 173.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.50 pts and allowed 86.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.70 pts and allowed 89.10 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	18	6	2174	1961	213	8-4	10-2	3W
2  Aces	17	7	2158	2062	96	7-5	10-2	1L
3  Valkyries	17	7	1967	1828	139	10-3	7-4	7W
4  Wings	16	8	2147	2049	98	7-3	9-5	5W
5  Fever	14	9	2162	2048	114	8-4	6-5	2W
6  Dream	14	10	2119	2034	85	8-4	6-6	1W
7  Liberty	13	11	2108	2027	81	7-5	6-6	3L
8  Mystics	11	10	1706	1769	-63	5-5	6-5	1W
9  Sparks	10	12	1962	2059	-97	5-7	5-5	1L
10  Tempo	10	13	2064	2117	-53	6-7	4-6	1W
11  Fire	10	14	2039	2188	-149	6-6	4-8	1L
12  Mercury	8	17	2082	2182	-100	3-8	5-9	4L
13  Sky	7	16	1987	2063	-76	3-7	4-9	2L
14  Sun	6	18	1913	2073	-160	4-10	2-8	1W
15  Storm	6	19	2000	2128	-128	4-8	2-11	2L

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