Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 09 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury

The Indiana Fever battle the Phoenix Mercury, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Thursday, July 9.

Our betting prediction is to confidently back the Fever on the Moneyline. You can get -105 that the road team get the better of the Mercury when all is said and done.

Indiana Fever suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 106-92 scoreline occurred on the road at Crypto.com Arena against Los Angeles Sparks.

Phoenix Mercury were defeated last time out. They were beaten at home to Chicago Sky by a 77-66 scoreline.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was the Mercury who came out on top when they last played the Fever. At Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 111-109 win was recorded. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Fever win seven times.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
7  Fever	12	9	1961	1884	77	8-4	4-5	1L
12  Mercury	8	14	1835	1880	-45	3-7	5-7	1L

View Full Standings

Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Game Prediction

The pick is that Fever will outscore their opponents, with odds of -105 currently available that the road team win this WNBA contest. That looks a price worth taking on this value selection.

Our basketball predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into up-to-date WNBA stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key Fever vs Mercury stats:

• Fever have won 6 of their last 10 games.
• Fever have won 12 of their last 20 games.
• Mercury have lost 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Mercury have lost 13 of their last 20 games.
• Mercury have lost 7 of their last 10 games against Fever.

Fever Moneyline Probability

The best sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 51.3% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our cappers have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

The Fever can be backed in different ways and you might find the odds more attractive when you check out the Point Spread or the Result & Both Teams to Score lines.

Make your next bet count. Discover the best betting offers, including generous welcome bonuses and free bets.

Our Game Prediction

Fever Moneyline @ -105 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 9, 04:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Valeriane Ayayi Under 4.5 Rebounds -100

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) can be backed to have Under 4.5 rebounds at -100. We’re pretty confident that this Player Rebounds wager will end up falling short of the line.

Latest Valeriane Ayayi Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 10.5

-120

Under 10.5

-110

Rebounds

Over 4.5

-135

Under 4.5

-100

---

Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 Points -118

Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) can be wagered to total Over 23.5 points at -118. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Kelsey Mitchell Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 23.5

-118

Under 23.5

-114

Assists

Over 2.5

-156

Under 2.5

+114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Fever 91 - 86 Mercury

We’re going for the Fever to achieve a 91-86 win and the good news is that there are massive odds for this outcome. A small stake can return a potentially large amount.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

You can back Phoenix Mercury at -115 to win against Indiana Fever, with the latter trading at -105. From a percentage point-of-view, the leading WNBA sportsbooks give the visiting team a 51% chance of success.

The spread currently stands at 1.5 and the total points line is 173.5. Having a bet on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball wagers. If you’re going for Over 173.5, then the odds are -112.

You can find a wide range of team props and game lines for every women's hoops matchup, with the top basketball sportsbooks creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Fever

-105

Mercury

-115

Point Spread

Fever +1.5

-118

Mercury -1.5

-104

Total Points

Under 173.5

-108

Over 173.5

-112

Kelsey Mitchell is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -118 to score Over 23.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -114.

Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)

Over 23.5

-118

Under 23.5

-114

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 19.5

-120

Under 19.5

-110

Aliyah Boston (Fever)

Over 17.5

-108

Under 17.5

-123

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-120

Under 14.5

-110

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-120

Under 10.5

-110

Lexie Hull (Fever)

Over 9.5

-101

Under 9.5

-132

Monique Billings (Fever)

Over 8.5

-116

Under 8.5

-114

Lexi Held (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-108

Under 8.5

-122

Tyasha Harris (Fever)

Over 7.5

-123

Under 7.5

-108

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+101

Under 8.5

-137

Tyasha Harris (Fever)

Over 4.5

+127

Under 4.5

-175

Aliyah Boston (Fever)

Over 3.5

-128

Under 3.5

-106

Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)

Over 2.5

-156

Under 2.5

+114

Aliyah Boston (Fever)

Over 8.5

-147

Under 8.5

+108

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

+109

Under 7.5

-147

Monique Billings (Fever)

Over 6.5

-128

Under 6.5

-105

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 4.5

-135

Under 4.5

-100

Lexie Hull (Fever)

Over 4.5

-116

Under 4.5

-118

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-109

Under 3.5

-123

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Indiana Fever Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 193.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 176.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 173.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 173.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 99.10 pts and allowed 94.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 86.70 pts and allowed 89.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 171.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 174.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 173.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 173.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.50 pts and allowed 86.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.70 pts and allowed 89.10 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	16	6	1980	1776	204	6-4	10-2	1W
2  Aces	15	6	1889	1815	74	6-4	9-2	1L
3  Valkyries	16	7	1888	1764	124	10-3	6-4	6W
4  Wings	14	8	1943	1863	80	6-3	8-5	3W
5  Liberty	13	9	1932	1844	88	7-5	6-4	1L
6  Dream	12	9	1837	1762	75	6-3	6-6	5L
7  Fever	12	9	1961	1884	77	8-4	4-5	1L
8  Mystics	10	10	1622	1690	-68	4-5	6-5	1L
9  Sparks	9	11	1768	1871	-103	4-7	5-4	1W
10  Fire	9	12	1770	1918	-148	6-5	3-7	1W
11  Tempo	9	12	1876	1918	-42	5-6	4-6	3L
12  Mercury	8	14	1835	1880	-45	3-7	5-7	1L
13  Sky	7	14	1809	1865	-56	3-7	4-7	1W
14  Storm	6	17	1843	1955	-112	4-8	2-9	1W
15  Sun	5	17	1759	1907	-148	3-9	2-8	1L

Where to Bet on Basketball Games

Top Basketball Pages