Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 24 Sep 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

The Las Vegas Aces go up against the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Thursday, September 24.

We’ve lined up a prediction which requires the Mercury to keep close to the Aces. We think that the line of +9.5 can be covered and you can secure -104.

Las Vegas Aces won their previous game which was at home. It was a 89-79 triumph at Michelob Ultra Arena against Los Angeles Sparks.

Phoenix Mercury last game saw them claim a 87-86 home win over Dallas Wings at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Aces have beaten the Merc in the last two matchups. They won 86-76 at Mortgage Matchup Center and triumphed 106-58 at Michelob Ultra Arena. The past 10 clashes between these teams have seen nine Aces wins.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
3  Aces	30	13	3925	3694	231	15-7	15-6	6W
10  Mercury	16	27	3630	3754	-124	7-14	9-13	1W

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Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Our Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury tips include the main match prediction, a correct score forecast and bet builder picks. Each section below offers expert insight into the key betting angles.

Game Prediction

We’re confident that Mercury can produce a strong performance in this WNBA showdown. Our pick is that they’ll cover the spread of +9.5 and you can currently get -104.

Getting the lowdown on injuries and analyzing the form guide are key steps before making basketball picks. We also put strong emphasis on WNBA stats, where a data-led approach often leads to smarter predictions.

Key Aces vs Mercury stats:

• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 5 consecutive games.
• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 12 of their last 20 games on the road.

Merc +9.5 Probability

Based on the odds from the top betting apps, our pick has a 51% prospect of winning. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If the price on display doesn’t appeal, you can make the choice to secure bigger odds by moving the line for your selection. It’s a case of taking a view which you are happy with.

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Our Game Prediction

Mercury +9.5 @ -104 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 24, 04:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Aces 88 - 82 Mercury

If you want to take a chance on a correct score, then the Aces to enjoy a 88-82 victory could be along the right lines. There are enormous odds for this particular outcome.

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Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The latest Moneyline betting odds give Las Vegas Aces a 83% chance of winning this WNBA game which means they’re overwhelming -476 favorites with the sportsbooks. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +340 about Phoenix Mercury.

9.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 174.5 right now. Basketball bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you want to bet Under 174.5, there are odds of -114.

If you’re planning to place a bet on women's basketball, visit the best betting sites and check out the hundreds of available team props and game lines. Find the lines which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Aces

-476

Mercury

+340

Point Spread

Aces -9.5

-118

Mercury +9.5

-104

Total Points

Under 174.5

-114

Over 174.5

-106

You shouldn’t overlook the player props when it comes to betting on individual games. Many gambling sites will give you the chance to get with or bet against a specific player when it comes to number of Points, Assists, Steals and Blocks.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with basketball fans essentially being able to wager in-game when it comes to score, team and player props. Check out the two-way lines where you can bet whether the next shot will be a Two-pointer or a Three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• -9.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +9.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 181.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 174.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 92.10 pts and allowed 80.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 93.40 pts and allowed 88.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 174.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 171.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 174.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.40 pts and allowed 87.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.70 pts and allowed 85.80 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	32	11	3911	3615	296	14-7	18-4	1L
2  Valkyries	31	12	3539	3230	309	17-5	14-7	1L
3  Aces	30	13	3925	3694	231	15-7	15-6	6W
4  Dream	29	14	3936	3652	284	15-7	14-7	4W
5  Fever	28	15	4156	3893	263	15-7	13-8	1W
6  Mystics	27	16	3595	3547	48	14-7	13-9	3W
7  Wings	26	17	3830	3660	170	16-6	10-11	1L
8  Liberty	26	17	3876	3719	157	14-7	12-10	1L
9  Fire	17	27	3794	4005	-211	9-13	8-14	1W
10  Mercury	16	27	3630	3754	-124	7-14	9-13	1W
11  Sky	16	27	3725	3888	-163	11-11	5-16	1W
12  Sparks	16	27	3755	3942	-187	8-13	8-14	1L
13  Tempo	11	32	3688	4057	-369	7-15	4-17	7L
14  Sun	10	33	3375	3794	-419	7-14	3-19	6L
15  Storm	8	35	3525	3810	-285	6-15	2-20	4L

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