Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 21 May 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

The Los Angeles Sparks face the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Thursday, May 21.

There is a strong case that the Mercury will end up winning and that means wagering the home team on the Moneyline. You can get a value -149 that they get the better of the Sparks.

Los Angeles Sparks lost their previous game, being beaten at home to Toronto Tempo 106-96 at Crypto.com Arena.

Phoenix Mercury were beaten 98-90 at Mortgage Matchup Center in their last game, being turned over at home to Toronto Tempo.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Sparks triumphed 88-83 when they last played the Mercury. This head-to-head was played at Mortgage Matchup Center. The past 10 clashes between these teams have seen eight Mercury wins.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
11  Sparks	10	16	2295	2427	-132	5-8	5-8	5L
12  Mercury	10	18	2323	2423	-100	4-9	6-9	2W

View Full Standings

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Our Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury betting outlook has it all, including a trusted match forecast, our predicted score, top player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’re heading to the Moneyline and our pick is for Mercury to win this WNBA contest. They have a strong chance of landing a victory and the -149 makes plenty of appeal.

Our expert WNBA handicappers study recent form and take injuries into account when assessing each matchup. Before delivering a verdict, we combine that insight with the latest stats to strengthen our analysis.

Key Sparks vs Mercury stats:

• Mercury have won 11 of their last 20 games at home.
• Sparks have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
• Sparks have lost 6 of their last 10 games.
• Mercury have won 8 of their last 10 games against Sparks.

Mercury Moneyline Probability

According to the top basketball betting sites, there’s a 59.9% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 65-70%. It is the reason why we are recommending this WNBA wager.

If you’re looking for greater odds, the Mercury can be backed at a bigger price on the spread. Also consider the Result & Both Teams to Score and Double Result lines for more juice.

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Our Game Prediction

Mercury Moneyline @ -149 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 21, 02:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Dearica Hamby Under 16.5 Points -101

Dearica Hamby (Sparks) is available at -101 to register Under 16.5 points. When it comes to her Player Points outcome, we are fairly confident she will total below the line.

Latest Dearica Hamby Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

-128

Under 16.5

-101

Assists

Over 2.5

-108

Under 2.5

-120

Rebounds

Over 7.5

-111

Under 7.5

-116

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DeWanna Bonner Under 6.5 Rebounds -116

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) can be wagered to register Under 6.5 rebounds at -116. The total looks reasonably high and we anticipate she will fall short of the line when it comes to the Player Rebounds.

Latest DeWanna Bonner Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 10.5

-137

Under 10.5

+106

Rebounds

Over 6.5

-111

Under 6.5

-116

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Sparks 88 - 93 Mercury

If you want to take a chance on a correct score, then the Mercury to enjoy a 93-88 victory could be along the right lines. There are enormous odds for this particular outcome.

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Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Phoenix Mercury are regarded as likeliest victors for this WNBA game and the -147 about them triumphing means a 60% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. At +120, Los Angeles Sparks are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

2.5 is the spread and 178.5 is the total points line. A wager on the Totals allows basketball bettors to use the latest data to good effect. The Over 178.5 selection is available to back at -106.

The good news is that you can access a huge selection of team props and game lines for most women's basketball matchups. The best betting apps have a massive range of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Sparks

+120

Mercury

-147

Point Spread

Sparks +2.5

-105

Mercury -2.5

-115

Total Points

Under 178.5

-114

Over 178.5

-106

The favorite to hit the most buckets is Kelsey Plum. Odds of -112 can be found for her scoring Over 20.5 points and there is -115 for her to go Under.

Kelsey Plum (Sparks)

Over 20.5

-112

Under 20.5

-115

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 18.5

-118

Under 18.5

-110

Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks)

Over 16.5

-130

Under 16.5

+101

Dearica Hamby (Sparks)

Over 16.5

-128

Under 16.5

-101

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-108

Under 16.5

-120

Jovana Nogic (Mercury)

Over 13.5

-137

Under 13.5

+106

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-137

Under 10.5

+106

Ariel Atkins (Sparks)

Over 10.5

+102

Under 10.5

-132

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-137

Under 8.5

+106

Kelsey Plum (Sparks)

Over 5.5

+112

Under 5.5

-145

Dearica Hamby (Sparks)

Over 2.5

-108

Under 2.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+103

Under 8.5

-133

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-108

Under 8.5

-120

Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks)

Over 7.5

+103

Under 7.5

-133

Dearica Hamby (Sparks)

Over 7.5

-111

Under 7.5

-116

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-111

Under 6.5

-116

Ariel Atkins (Sparks)

Over 3.5

-114

Under 3.5

-114

There are always opportunities to enjoy micro betting. It’s generally the case that you will find team and player props in-game and basketball bettors can use their insight to wager on outcomes such as if the next shot will be a Two or Three-Pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Los Angeles Sparks Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 180.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 177.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 175.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 175.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 90.80 pts and allowed 89.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 88.40 pts and allowed 89.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 163.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 174.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 175.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 175.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 77.80 pts and allowed 85.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.30 pts and allowed 89.40 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	22	6	2562	2319	243	10-4	12-2	7W
2  Valkyries	19	8	2211	2062	149	11-4	8-4	1L
3  Aces	18	8	2366	2245	121	7-5	11-3	1L
4  Wings	18	9	2436	2327	109	8-4	10-5	1W
5  Fever	17	10	2578	2419	159	11-5	6-5	3W
6  Dream	16	10	2323	2217	106	9-4	7-6	3W
7  Liberty	15	12	2390	2327	63	8-5	7-7	2W
8  Mystics	14	12	2100	2161	-61	6-6	8-6	2W
9  Fire	11	16	2304	2446	-142	6-7	5-9	2L
10  Tempo	10	16	2301	2416	-115	6-10	4-6	3L
11  Sparks	10	16	2295	2427	-132	5-8	5-8	5L
12  Mercury	10	18	2323	2423	-100	4-9	6-9	2W
13  Sky	9	18	2363	2423	-60	5-7	4-11	2L
14  Sun	7	20	2160	2351	-191	4-10	3-10	2L
15  Storm	6	23	2375	2524	-149	4-10	2-13	6L

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