Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 21 May 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

The Los Angeles Sparks face the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Thursday, May 21.

There is a strong case that the Mercury will end up winning and that means wagering the home team on the Moneyline. You can get a value -149 that they get the better of the Sparks.

Los Angeles Sparks lost their previous game, being beaten at home to Toronto Tempo 106-96 at Crypto.com Arena.

Phoenix Mercury were beaten 98-90 at Mortgage Matchup Center in their last game, being turned over at home to Toronto Tempo.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Sparks triumphed 88-83 when they last played the Mercury. This head-to-head was played at Mortgage Matchup Center. The past 10 clashes between these teams have seen eight Mercury wins.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
11  Mercury	2	3	443	430	13	1-2	1-1	1L
13  Sparks	1	3	351	393	-42	1-3	0-0	1L

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Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Get the edge with our best Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury picks: a key match prediction, correct score recommendation and a ready-made bet builder. Explore each section below for detailed insights.

Game Prediction

We’re heading to the Moneyline and our pick is for Mercury to win this WNBA contest. They have a strong chance of landing a victory and the -149 makes plenty of appeal.

Our expert WNBA handicappers study recent form and take injuries into account when assessing each matchup. Before delivering a verdict, we combine that insight with the latest stats to strengthen our analysis.

Key Sparks vs Mercury stats:

• Mercury have won 11 of their last 20 games at home.
• Sparks have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
• Sparks have lost 6 of their last 10 games.
• Mercury have won 8 of their last 10 games against Sparks.

Mercury Moneyline Probability

According to the top basketball betting sites, there’s a 59.9% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 65-70%. It is the reason why we are recommending this WNBA wager.

If you’re looking for greater odds, the Mercury can be backed at a bigger price on the spread. Also consider the Result & Both Teams to Score and Double Result lines for more juice.

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Our Game Prediction

Mercury Moneyline @ -149 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 21, 02:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Sparks 88 - 93 Mercury

If you want to take a chance on a correct score, then the Mercury to enjoy a 93-88 victory could be along the right lines. There are enormous odds for this particular outcome.

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Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Phoenix Mercury are regarded as likeliest victors for this WNBA game and the -149 about them triumphing means a 60% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. At +122, Los Angeles Sparks are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

3.5 is the spread and 176.5 is the total points line. A wager on the Totals allows basketball bettors to use the latest data to good effect. The Over 176.5 selection is available to back at -110.

The good news is that you can access a huge selection of team props and game lines for most women's basketball matchups. The best betting apps have a massive range of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Sparks

+122

Mercury

-149

Point Spread

Sparks +3.5

-112

Mercury -3.5

-108

Total Points

Under 176.5

-110

Over 176.5

-110

Prop betting is very popular, with bettors looking to wager on player props such as Points, Assists, Rebounds, Steals and Three-Pointers. It’s a great way of betting on individual player performance and the gambling sites will provide lots of options.

There are always opportunities to enjoy micro betting. It’s generally the case that you will find team and player props in-game and basketball bettors can use their insight to wager on outcomes such as if the next shot will be a Two or Three-Pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Los Angeles Sparks Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 178.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 180.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 176.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 176.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.60 pts and allowed 93.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 89.10 pts and allowed 91.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 174.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 169.00 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 176.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 176.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.70 pts and allowed 87.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 84.00 pts and allowed 85.00 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Aces	4	1	455	424	31	0-1	4-0	4W
2  Liberty	3	1	400	348	52	1-0	2-1	1W
3  Dream	2	1	252	247	5	0-1	2-0	1L
4  Valkyries	2	1	249	228	21	1-1	1-0	1L
5  Wings	3	2	456	429	27	1-2	2-0	2W
6  Sky	3	2	425	415	10	0-1	3-1	1L
7  Fever	3	2	472	440	32	2-2	1-0	2W
8  Tempo	3	2	450	426	24	1-1	2-1	2W
9  Mystics	2	2	334	357	-23	0-1	2-1	1L
10  Lynx	2	2	347	347	0	0-2	2-0	1L
11  Mercury	2	3	443	430	13	1-2	1-1	1L
12  Fire	2	3	419	466	-47	2-2	0-1	1L
13  Sparks	1	3	351	393	-42	1-3	0-0	1L
14  Storm	1	4	398	428	-30	0-2	1-2	3L
15  Sun	1	5	482	555	-73	0-3	1-2	1W

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