Miami Heat
Basketball NBA Ball Arena Wed 5 Nov 21:00
Denver Nuggets
  1. Prediction
  2. SGP Picks
  3. Odds
  4. Team Stats
  5. Player Stats
  6. Player Props
  7. Team News
  8. Lineups
  9. Injuries
  10. Rosters
  11. Standings

NBA Betting Preview: Heat vs Nuggets

The Miami Heat face the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 21:00 on Wednesday, November 5. Our betting preview features expert NBA predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and the official starting lineups.

Few Points Expected

Betting on the totals provides plenty of value at -110. The line is set at 242.5 and we’d be surprised if the Heat and the Nuggets’ combined points total exceeds that amount.

Thinking it’ll be a low-scoring matchup? Snag the latest BetMGM promo code and give our in-depth site review a read before you place your bet.

9 Nuggets Victories in Previous 10 H2H Matchups

Miami Heat won their previous game by a 120-119 scoreline. It was on the road against LA Clippers at Intuit Dome. Bam Adebayo poured in 25 points, with Norman Powell contributing 21 and Andrew Wiggins adding 17.

Denver Nuggets have enjoyed three consecutive home wins at Ball Arena. Last time out, Sacramento Kings were beaten 130-124. Nikola Jokic had 34 points and 14 assists, while Christian Braun registered 21 points and Aaron Gordon 20.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was the Nuggets who came out on top when they last played the Heat. At Kaseya Center, a 133-113 win was recorded. The Nuggets have beaten the Heat in the past seven matchups. They’ve also claimed 9 wins in the past 10 head-to-head meetings.

NBA W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Celtics Nuggets 7 2 0.778 124.2 111 13.2 6-0 1-2 1-1 5-2 7-2 4W
Celtics Heat 6 4 0.6 124.1 118 6.1 4-0 2-4 2-1 3-1 6-4 2W
View Full Standings
Miami Heat – Last 10 Games

The Heat have 4 wins and 6 losses in the past 10 games. They are averaging 114.9 points, 43.9 rebounds, 27.1 assists, 7.5 steals and 2.7 blocks while shooting 47.5% from the field and 75.3% from the free-throw line. The opposition have an average of 120.2 points and 44.9 rebounds per contest.

Bam Adebayo is averaging 19.4 points and 10.2 rebounds, Davion Mitchell 7.1 assists and Simone Fontecchio 2.0 (51.3%) 3-pointers.

Denver Nuggets – Last 10 Games

The Nuggets have won 5 and lost 5 of their previous 10 contests. Averaging 115.4 points, 47.1 rebounds, 26.3 assists, 8.1 steals and 3.9 blocks per game while shooting 47.1% from the field and 83.0% from the free-throw line. Their opponents average 111.9 points and 42.2 rebounds.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 25.6 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.1 assists, while Aaron Gordon has an average of 2.1 (42.0%) 3-pointers made.

Confirmed Starting Lineups

Miami Heat lineup: Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell.

Denver Nuggets lineup: Christian Braun, Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets, including a key match prediction, our best correct score selection, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

242.5 points looks too big a number on the total line and we are happy to play the -110 about Under when it comes to this exciting NBA matchup.

The formbook is always a smart starting point when making basketball picks. Up-to-date NBA team news is just as important, while the stats we provide often reveal valuable insights.

Key Heat vs Nuggets stats:

  • The 242.5 line hasn’t been covered in 16 of the last 20 Heat games on the road.
  • The 242.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Heat games.
  • The 242.5 line hasn’t been covered in 15 of the last 20 Nuggets games.
  • The 242.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Nuggets games.

Under 242.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

Looking for Bigger Odds?

If you’re wanting to go Under a certain points total but fancy bigger odds, the Match Result & Total lines could be a good option. You need the two combinations to work in your favor.

Don’t place another bet without seeing the best betting offers available—free bets and welcome promos included.

Best Bet

Under 242.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now BetMGM logo
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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.
Published 01:06, 05 November 2025

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Christian Braun Over 2.5 Assists +132 BetMGM logo

Christian Braun (Nuggets) has covered the 2.5 assists total in 4 straight games at home. We’re sweet on him covering the Player Assists line once again, with odds of +132 on offer that this happens.

Latest Christian Braun Player Prop Odds

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Andrew Wiggins Under 2.5 Assists -145 BetMGM logo

Andrew Wiggins (Heat) has finished with Under 2.5 assists in 8 of the past 10 games. We can therefore feel confident that he might fall short on the Player Assists front and there is -145 available for this prop bet.

Latest Andrew Wiggins Player Prop Odds

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Same Game Parlay Picks

Totals Under 241.5
Spread Nuggets -9.5
Player Assists Christian Braun Over 2.5

Get in the game with a same game parlay. Our picks are Under 241.5 on the total, Nuggets to cover the -9.5 spread and Christian Braun (Nuggets) to get Over 2.5 assists.

A same game parlay is a fantastic way of cheering on different selections within the same basketball game. You can predict a number of outcomes and get bigger odds than a single bet. The odds can combine to great effect.

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Correct Score Prediction

Heat Heat logo 111 - 125 Nuggets logo Nuggets

There’s the chance to bet on the Nuggets in lots of different ways and this includes predicting the correct winning score. We’ll go for a 125-111 victory in their favor.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Nuggets Heavy Favorites to Win

Denver Nuggets have the shortest price to win this NBA game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 81% probability due to their -417 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +330 about Miami Heat.

The spread is 9.5 and the total points line is currently 241.5. Basketball bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you fancy Under 241.5, then the odds are -110.

The best basketball betting sites offer a huge selection of team props and game lines when it comes to most NBA contests. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Betting Lines & Odds

Nikola Jokic Favorite to Score the Most Baskets

Nikola Jokic is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can get -120 that he scores Over 24.5 points or -112 that he goes Under.

Player Points
Player Assists
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
Over 9.5
-141
Under 9.5
+106
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Davion Mitchell (Heat)
Over 6.5
-112
Under 6.5
-120
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Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
Over 5.5
-130
Under 5.5
-103
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Player Rebounds
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
Over 12.5
-114
Under 12.5
-118
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Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)
Over 5.5
+115
Under 5.5
-154
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Jaime Jaquez Jr (Heat)
Over 5.5
-108
Under 5.5
-123
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Micro Betting

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Best Betting Offers
Ball Arena
Ball Arena

Nuggets Rolling at Home

The Nuggets have secured four straight wins at Ball Arena. They are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, scoring 116.90 points per contest and conceding 105.70.

The Heat have gone 5-5 across their last 10 games games on the road, scoring 120.50 points per contest and conceding 114.50.

The last time these teams met at Ball Arena, the Nuggets came out on top 135-122 against the Heat. From their last 10 head-to-head matchups at Ball Arena, the Nuggets have collected nine wins and the Heat one.

Last 10 Games W-L P PF PA O242.5 U242.5
Denver Nuggets logo Denver Nuggets Home Stats 8-2 222.60 116.90 105.70 3 7
Miami Heat logo Miami Heat Away Stats 5-5 235.00 120.50 114.50 4 6
  • W-L = Wins-Losses
  • P = Avg. Points
  • PF = Avg. Points For
  • PA = Avg. Points Against
  • O242.5 = Games Over 242.5 Points
  • U242.5 = Games Under 242.5 Points
Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Miami Heat logo Miami Heat Stats
Denver Nuggets logo Denver Nuggets Stats
Moneyline
  • 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
Moneyline
  • 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games
Point Spread
Point Spread
Total Points
Total Points
Team Stats - Avg/Game
Team Stats - Avg/Game

Team News

Miami Heat Player Stats & Roster

Player GP MIN TP TA PTS AST 3P REB BLK STL
Bam Adebayo 7 33.56 157 23 22.4 3.3 2.3 9.1 0.3 1.1
Andrew Wiggins 7 31.51 114 13 16.3 1.9 1.6 5.0 0.9 1.3
Norman Powell 4 30.28 93 10 23.3 2.5 2.8 6.0 0.3 1.8

Denver Nuggets Player Stats & Roster

Player GP MIN TP TA PTS AST 3P REB BLK STL
Nikola Jokic 6 34.93 136 68 22.7 11.3 1.5 13.2 1.0 2.2
Jamal Murray 6 33.45 145 34 24.2 5.7 2.2 5.0 0.2 1.0
Christian Braun 6 30.97 76 15 12.7 2.5 0.5 3.8 0.3 0.7

Injuries & Suspensions

Miami Heat Injury Table

Type
Name
Info
Tyler Herro
Injured
Terry Rozier
Suspended

Denver Nuggets Injury Table

Type
Name
Info

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets logo Denver Nuggets Confirmed Lineup
0 Christian Braun
15 Nikola Jokic
23 Cameron Johnson
27 Jamal Murray
32 Aaron Gordon
Miami Heat logo Miami Heat Confirmed Lineup
9 Pelle Larsson
13 Bam Adebayo
22 Andrew Wiggins
24 Norman Powell
45 Davion Mitchell

Previous Miami Heat Lineups

03 Nov NBA
Heat 120-119 Clippers
02 Nov NBA
Heat 120-130 Lakers
30 Oct NBA
Heat 101-107 Spurs
28 Oct NBA
Hornets 117-144 Heat
26 Oct NBA
Knicks 107-115 Heat
24 Oct NBA
Heat 146-114 Grizzlies
22 Oct NBA
Heat 121-125 Magic
28 Apr NBA Playoffs
Cavaliers 138-83 Heat
26 Apr NBA Playoffs
Cavaliers 124-87 Heat
23 Apr NBA Playoffs
Heat 112-121 Cavaliers

Previous Denver Nuggets Lineups

03 Nov NBA
Kings 124-130 Nuggets
31 Oct NBA
Nuggets 107-109 Trail Blazers
29 Oct NBA
Pelicans 88-122 Nuggets
27 Oct NBA
Nuggets 127-114 Timberwolves
25 Oct NBA
Suns 111-133 Nuggets
23 Oct NBA
Nuggets 131-137 Warriors
18 May NBA Playoffs
Nuggets 93-125 Thunder
15 May NBA Playoffs
Thunder 107-119 Nuggets
13 May NBA Playoffs
Nuggets 105-112 Thunder
11 May NBA Playoffs
Thunder 92-87 Nuggets

NBA Table Select Season

East Atlantic W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Knicks 6 3 0.667 120.6 111.9 8.7 6-0 0-3 2-0 5-3 6-3 4W
76ers 6 4 0.6 122.4 118.5 3.9 3-2 3-2 3-1 6-4 6-4 1L
Raptors 5 5 0.5 119.3 117.1 2.2 2-2 3-3 0-1 4-2 5-5 1L
Celtics 5 6 0.455 112.8 110.4 2.4 2-3 3-3 1-2 4-4 5-5 1W
Nets 1 9 0.1 110 125.5 -15.5 0-5 1-4 0-2 1-6 1-9 2L
East Central W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Pistons 8 2 0.8 116.1 110.5 5.6 4-1 4-1 0-2 4-2 8-2 6W
Cavaliers 7 3 0.7 120.7 115.4 5.3 4-1 3-2 3-0 7-3 7-3 4W
Bulls 6 3 0.667 119.4 118.1 1.3 5-0 1-3 1-2 5-3 6-3 2L
Bucks 6 4 0.6 120 118.5 1.5 4-2 2-2 2-1 5-2 6-4 1L
Pacers 1 9 0.1 107.6 118.7 -11.1 1-4 0-5 0-1 0-3 1-9 4L
East Southeast W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Heat 6 4 0.6 124.1 118 6.1 4-0 2-4 2-1 3-1 6-4 2W
Hawks 5 5 0.5 115.2 115 0.2 2-3 3-2 2-0 4-4 5-5 1W
Magic 4 6 0.4 116 116.2 -0.2 2-3 2-3 3-2 4-6 4-6 1L
Hornets 3 6 0.333 119 121 -2 2-2 1-4 1-3 2-4 3-6 2L
Wizards 1 9 0.1 111.4 128.4 -17 0-5 1-4 0-2 0-7 1-9 8L
West Northwest W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Thunder 10 1 0.909 122.4 108.8 13.6 4-0 6-1 0-1 7-1 9-1 2W
Nuggets 7 2 0.778 124.2 111 13.2 6-0 1-2 1-1 5-2 7-2 4W
Timberwolves 6 4 0.6 121.3 116 5.3 2-2 4-2 2-1 3-3 6-4 2W
Trail Blazers 5 4 0.556 121.6 119.8 1.8 3-2 2-2 3-1 5-3 5-4 1L
Jazz 3 6 0.333 112.1 120.1 -8 2-1 1-5 0-2 2-4 3-6 2L
West Pacific W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Lakers 7 3 0.7 117.8 117.1 0.7 3-2 4-1 1-1 6-2 7-3 1L
Warriors 6 5 0.545 115.9 113.6 2.3 5-0 1-5 3-1 5-3 5-5 1W
Suns 5 5 0.5 116.4 116.7 -0.3 4-1 1-4 3-2 5-5 5-5 2W
Kings 3 7 0.3 115.3 123.9 -8.6 2-3 1-4 1-2 2-6 3-7 2L
Clippers 3 6 0.333 109.7 115 -5.3 3-3 0-3 1-3 3-5 3-6 4L
West Southwest W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Spurs 7 2 0.778 119.1 110.7 8.4 5-0 2-2 4-0 4-2 7-2 2W
Rockets 6 3 0.667 122.8 113.1 9.7 2-1 4-2 2-1 2-2 6-3 1W
Grizzlies 4 7 0.364 113.7 118.6 -4.9 3-5 1-2 2-1 3-4 3-7 1L
Mavericks 3 7 0.3 106.5 113.3 -6.8 2-4 1-3 0-4 0-5 3-7 1W
Pelicans 2 7 0.222 109.1 121.3 -12.2 1-2 1-5 1-3 1-6 2-7 1L
Eastern Conference W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Pistons 8 2 0.8 116.1 110.5 5.6 4-1 4-1 0-2 4-2 8-2 6W
Cavaliers 7 3 0.7 120.7 115.4 5.3 4-1 3-2 3-0 7-3 7-3 4W
Knicks 6 3 0.667 120.6 111.9 8.7 6-0 0-3 2-0 5-3 6-3 4W
76ers 6 4 0.6 122.4 118.5 3.9 3-2 3-2 3-1 6-4 6-4 1L
Bulls 6 3 0.667 119.4 118.1 1.3 5-0 1-3 1-2 5-3 6-3 2L
Bucks 6 4 0.6 120 118.5 1.5 4-2 2-2 2-1 5-2 6-4 1L
Heat 6 4 0.6 124.1 118 6.1 4-0 2-4 2-1 3-1 6-4 2W
Raptors 5 5 0.5 119.3 117.1 2.2 2-2 3-3 0-1 4-2 5-5 1L
Hawks 5 5 0.5 115.2 115 0.2 2-3 3-2 2-0 4-4 5-5 1W
Celtics 5 6 0.455 112.8 110.4 2.4 2-3 3-3 1-2 4-4 5-5 1W
Magic 4 6 0.4 116 116.2 -0.2 2-3 2-3 3-2 4-6 4-6 1L
Hornets 3 6 0.333 119 121 -2 2-2 1-4 1-3 2-4 3-6 2L
Nets 1 9 0.1 110 125.5 -15.5 0-5 1-4 0-2 1-6 1-9 2L
Pacers 1 9 0.1 107.6 118.7 -11.1 1-4 0-5 0-1 0-3 1-9 4L
Wizards 1 9 0.1 111.4 128.4 -17 0-5 1-4 0-2 0-7 1-9 8L
Western Conference W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Thunder 10 1 0.909 122.4 108.8 13.6 4-0 6-1 0-1 7-1 9-1 2W
Spurs 7 2 0.778 119.1 110.7 8.4 5-0 2-2 4-0 4-2 7-2 2W
Nuggets 7 2 0.778 124.2 111 13.2 6-0 1-2 1-1 5-2 7-2 4W
Lakers 7 3 0.7 117.8 117.1 0.7 3-2 4-1 1-1 6-2 7-3 1L
Rockets 6 3 0.667 122.8 113.1 9.7 2-1 4-2 2-1 2-2 6-3 1W
Timberwolves 6 4 0.6 121.3 116 5.3 2-2 4-2 2-1 3-3 6-4 2W
Trail Blazers 5 4 0.556 121.6 119.8 1.8 3-2 2-2 3-1 5-3 5-4 1L
Warriors 6 5 0.545 115.9 113.6 2.3 5-0 1-5 3-1 5-3 5-5 1W
Suns 5 5 0.5 116.4 116.7 -0.3 4-1 1-4 3-2 5-5 5-5 2W
Grizzlies 4 7 0.364 113.7 118.6 -4.9 3-5 1-2 2-1 3-4 3-7 1L
Kings 3 7 0.3 115.3 123.9 -8.6 2-3 1-4 1-2 2-6 3-7 2L
Jazz 3 6 0.333 112.1 120.1 -8 2-1 1-5 0-2 2-4 3-6 2L
Clippers 3 6 0.333 109.7 115 -5.3 3-3 0-3 1-3 3-5 3-6 4L
Mavericks 3 7 0.3 106.5 113.3 -6.8 2-4 1-3 0-4 0-5 3-7 1W
Pelicans 2 7 0.222 109.1 121.3 -12.2 1-2 1-5 1-3 1-6 2-7 1L
NBA W L PCT PPG OPP PPG DIFF Home Road Div Conf Last 10 Strk
Thunder 10 1 0.909 122.4 108.8 13.6 4-0 6-1 0-1 7-1 9-1 2W
Pistons 8 2 0.8 116.1 110.5 5.6 4-1 4-1 0-2 4-2 8-2 6W
Nuggets 7 2 0.778 124.2 111 13.2 6-0 1-2 1-1 5-2 7-2 4W
Spurs 7 2 0.778 119.1 110.7 8.4 5-0 2-2 4-0 4-2 7-2 2W
Cavaliers 7 3 0.7 120.7 115.4 5.3 4-1 3-2 3-0 7-3 7-3 4W
Lakers 7 3 0.7 117.8 117.1 0.7 3-2 4-1 1-1 6-2 7-3 1L
Bulls 6 3 0.667 119.4 118.1 1.3 5-0 1-3 1-2 5-3 6-3 2L
Rockets 6 3 0.667 122.8 113.1 9.7 2-1 4-2 2-1 2-2 6-3 1W
Knicks 6 3 0.667 120.6 111.9 8.7 6-0 0-3 2-0 5-3 6-3 4W
Heat 6 4 0.6 124.1 118 6.1 4-0 2-4 2-1 3-1 6-4 2W
Bucks 6 4 0.6 120 118.5 1.5 4-2 2-2 2-1 5-2 6-4 1L
Timberwolves 6 4 0.6 121.3 116 5.3 2-2 4-2 2-1 3-3 6-4 2W
76ers 6 4 0.6 122.4 118.5 3.9 3-2 3-2 3-1 6-4 6-4 1L
Trail Blazers 5 4 0.556 121.6 119.8 1.8 3-2 2-2 3-1 5-3 5-4 1L
Warriors 6 5 0.545 115.9 113.6 2.3 5-0 1-5 3-1 5-3 5-5 1W
Hawks 5 5 0.5 115.2 115 0.2 2-3 3-2 2-0 4-4 5-5 1W
Suns 5 5 0.5 116.4 116.7 -0.3 4-1 1-4 3-2 5-5 5-5 2W
Raptors 5 5 0.5 119.3 117.1 2.2 2-2 3-3 0-1 4-2 5-5 1L
Celtics 5 6 0.455 112.8 110.4 2.4 2-3 3-3 1-2 4-4 5-5 1W
Magic 4 6 0.4 116 116.2 -0.2 2-3 2-3 3-2 4-6 4-6 1L
Grizzlies 4 7 0.364 113.7 118.6 -4.9 3-5 1-2 2-1 3-4 3-7 1L
Hornets 3 6 0.333 119 121 -2 2-2 1-4 1-3 2-4 3-6 2L
Clippers 3 6 0.333 109.7 115 -5.3 3-3 0-3 1-3 3-5 3-6 4L
Jazz 3 6 0.333 112.1 120.1 -8 2-1 1-5 0-2 2-4 3-6 2L
Mavericks 3 7 0.3 106.5 113.3 -6.8 2-4 1-3 0-4 0-5 3-7 1W
Kings 3 7 0.3 115.3 123.9 -8.6 2-3 1-4 1-2 2-6 3-7 2L
Pelicans 2 7 0.222 109.1 121.3 -12.2 1-2 1-5 1-3 1-6 2-7 1L
Nets 1 9 0.1 110 125.5 -15.5 0-5 1-4 0-2 1-6 1-9 2L
Pacers 1 9 0.1 107.6 118.7 -11.1 1-4 0-5 0-1 0-3 1-9 4L
Wizards 1 9 0.1 111.4 128.4 -17 0-5 1-4 0-2 0-7 1-9 8L
  • W = Wins
  • L = Losses
  • PCT = Winning Percentage
  • PPG = Points Per Game
  • OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
  • DIFF = Average Point Differential
  • Home = Home Record
  • Road = Away Record
  • Div = Division Record
  • Conf = Conference Record
  • Last 10 = Record last 10 games
  • Strk = Current Streak