Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Thursday

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Predictions

Best Bet

Heat +7.5 @ -110

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Our prediction is that the Heat can outperform their odds against the Warriors. It leads us to a bet on the spread lines considering that +7.5 has been chalked up at -110.

We highlight the top Heat vs Warriors predictions with our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Pick. Explore each section for the full analysis behind the plays.

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Preview

The Miami Heat meet the Golden State Warriors in this NBA contest.

Miami Heat triumphed in their previous game. It was on the road where LA Clippers were beaten 117-116 (OT) at Intuit Dome. Bam Adebayo dropped 35 points, as Klay Thompson finished with 30 and Giannis Antetokounmpo 27.

Golden State Warriors have enjoyed five straight wins, most recently beating Phoenix Suns 116-113. It was a home success at Chase Center. Stephen Curry scored 34 points, with Brandin Podziemski putting up 20 and Charles Bassey contributing 19.

H2H: 135-112 Win for Warriors in Pair’s Previous Clash

The Warriors won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 135-112 victory was registered against the Heat at Chase Center. It’s been five wins for each team over the previous 10 H2H meetings.

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Warriors	5	3	0.625	117.5	114.6	2.9	3-1	2-2	3-2	5-3	5-3	5W
Heat	3	5	0.375	118	122.9	-4.9	1-3	2-2	1-1	2-2	3-5	1W

View Full Standings

4 wins and 6 losses in the past 10 games. The Heat are averaging 121.3 points, 43.9 rebounds, 30.2 assists, 8.2 steals and 5.2 blocks while shooting 48.2% from the field and 74.4% from the free-throw line. The opposition have averaged 122.7 points and 46.7 rebounds per matchup.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 22.6 points and 10.0 rebounds, Davion Mitchell 7.3 assists and Klay Thompson 3.1 (42.5%) 3-pointers.

The Warriors have won 6 and lost 4 of their last 10 contests. Averaging 116.2 points, 42.6 rebounds, 26.5 assists, 8.8 steals and 3.4 blocks per game while shooting 46.5% from the field and 80.2% from the free-throw line. Their opponents have an average of 114.9 points and 40.2 rebounds.

Stephen Curry is averaging 23.2 points and 3.7 (43.5%) 3-pointers made. Yaxel Lendeborg has an average of 5.6 rebounds and Draymond Green 5.3 assists.

Best Bet

Our pick is that Heat will be able to cover the spread in this NBA contest, with +7.5 looking favorable for our wager. Take the -110 that is currently available.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The +7.5 line has been covered by Heat in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +7.5 line has been covered by Heat in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Warriors in 17 of their last 20 games.
• The -7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Warriors in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Warriors in 6 of their last 10 games against Heat.

We track all injuries that could impact each franchise before making our basketball predictions. The form guide and latest stats also help the Sportsgambler.com team crunch the numbers ahead of the NBA action.

Heat +7.5 Probability

Based on the latest odds from the top betting apps, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. However, our analysts think that the probability sits between 55-60% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

Want bigger odds when it comes to your wager? Never fear, you are able to head to the sportsbooks and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

Don’t miss your chance to claim the best betting offers, free bets, and bonuses with the help of our smart bonus guide.

Heat +7.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Nov 5, 04:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: De'Anthony Melton Over 3.5 Rebounds +104

De'Anthony Melton (Warriors) has totaled Over 3.5 rebounds in 6 straight games. We think this could be a telling statistic and we’ll wager him to cover the line which is available at odds of +104.

Latest De'Anthony Melton Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-125

Assists

Over 2.5

+124

Under 2.5

-161

Rebounds

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-135

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Bam Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds -143

Bam Adebayo (Heat) has failed to cover the Under 10.5 line in 10 of the past 10 games. Using this stat, we can take odds of -143 that this player prop bet falls short of the Shots on Goal line.

Latest Bam Adebayo Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 21.5

-115

Under 21.5

-112

Assists

Over 3.5

-152

Under 3.5

+116

Rebounds

Over 10.5

+110

Under 10.5

-143

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Heat 114 - 117 Warriors

We’ll roll the dice and go for the Warriors to enjoy a 117-114 victory. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams and we’re happy to take the huge odds.

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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks have Golden State Warriors at -294 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the favorites are 75% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Miami Heat are trading at +235.

7.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 235.5 right now. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you fancy Under 235.5, then the odds are -115.

The best betting sites offer hundreds of game lines and team props when it comes to most basketball contests. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Heat

+235

Warriors

-294

Point Spread

Heat +7.5

-110

Warriors -7.5

-110

Total Points

Under 235.5

-115

Over 235.5

-105

In terms of landing the most baskets, favorite Giannis Antetokounmpo is available at -108 to rack up Over 29.5 points. If you want to go Under, then -120 is available.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat)

Over 29.5

-108

Under 29.5

-120

Stephen Curry (Warriors)

Over 26.5

-119

Under 26.5

-109

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 21.5

-115

Under 21.5

-112

Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors)

Over 19.5

-118

Under 19.5

-110

Brandin Podziemski (Warriors)

Over 15.5

-123

Under 15.5

-105

De'Anthony Melton (Warriors)

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-125

Georges Niang (Warriors)

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-115

Will Richard (Warriors)

Over 6.5

-112

Under 6.5

-115

Draymond Green (Warriors)

Over 5.5

-115

Under 5.5

-112

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat)

Over 6.5

+118

Under 6.5

-154

Stephen Curry (Warriors)

Over 4.5

-152

Under 4.5

+116

Brandin Podziemski (Warriors)

Over 4.5

+132

Under 4.5

-172

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 3.5

-152

Under 3.5

+116

Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors)

Over 3.5

-130

Under 3.5

+101

De'Anthony Melton (Warriors)

Over 2.5

+124

Under 2.5

-161

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat)

Over 11.5

-125

Under 11.5

-103

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 10.5

+110

Under 10.5

-143

Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors)

Over 7.5

+113

Under 7.5

-147

Brandin Podziemski (Warriors)

Over 5.5

+120

Under 5.5

-156

Draymond Green (Warriors)

Over 4.5

-141

Under 4.5

+109

Stephen Curry (Warriors)

Over 3.5

-110

Under 3.5

-118

De'Anthony Melton (Warriors)

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-135

Georges Niang (Warriors)

Over 3.5

+112

Under 3.5

-145

Will Richard (Warriors)

Over 2.5

-152

Under 2.5

+116

The Warriors have run off three consecutive wins at Chase Center. They have gone 5-5 across their last 10 home games, scoring 114.40 points per contest and conceding 114.30.

The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games on the road, putting up 119.40 points on average and giving up 126.30.

In their last matchup at Chase Center, the Warriors came out on top 135-112 against the Heat. In their previous 7 head-to-head matchups at Chase Center, the Warriors have tallied four wins, compared to the Heat with three.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O235.5	U235.5
Golden State Warriors Home Stats		5-5	228.70	114.40	114.30	3	7
Miami Heat Away Stats		3-7	245.70	119.40	126.30	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O235.5 = Games Over 235.5 Points
• U235.5 = Games Under 235.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Miami Heat Stats

Golden State Warriors Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 244.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 245.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 235.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 235.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 121.30 pts and allowed 122.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 119.40 pts and allowed 126.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 231.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 228.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 235.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 235.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 116.20 pts and allowed 114.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 114.40 pts and allowed 114.30 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 31.40 (58%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 13.50 (35%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.00 (74.38%)
• Rebounds: Total 43.9, Offensive 11.10, Defensive 32.80
• Assists: 30.20
• Blocks: 5.20
• Steals: 8.20
• Turnovers : 13.10
• Personal Fouls: 18.90

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.20 (56%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.00 (36%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.00 (79.83%)
• Rebounds: Total 42.6, Offensive 9.70, Defensive 32.90
• Assists: 30.50
• Blocks: 4.60
• Steals: 6.10
• Turnovers : 13.10
• Personal Fouls: 18.90

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 23.90 (53%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 15.90 (39%)
• Free Throws Made: 20.70 (80.23%)
• Rebounds: Total 42.6, Offensive 13.80, Defensive 28.80
• Assists: 26.50
• Blocks: 3.40
• Steals: 8.80
• Turnovers : 16.70
• Personal Fouls: 21.60

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 24.50 (55%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 15.60 (38%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.60 (83.78%)
• Rebounds: Total 40.9, Offensive 11.80, Defensive 29.10
• Assists: 28.00
• Blocks: 3.90
• Steals: 8.20
• Turnovers : 14.50
• Personal Fouls: 18.90

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of tip-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
76ers	8	1	0.889	111	105.2	5.8	4-1	4-0	2-0	8-1	8-1	5W
Celtics	6	2	0.75	114.3	108.3	6	5-0	1-2	2-0	6-1	6-2	1W
Raptors	4	4	0.5	117.9	113.5	4.4	2-1	2-3	0-0	3-1	4-4	1L
Knicks	4	4	0.5	110	105.1	4.9	3-2	1-2	1-3	4-4	4-4	2W
Nets	2	6	0.25	106.6	112.9	-6.3	1-3	1-3	0-2	2-6	2-6	1W

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	6	2	0.75	111.1	101.8	9.3	2-1	4-1	0-0	6-2	6-2	1L
Cavaliers	4	4	0.5	119.3	117.1	2.2	3-1	1-3	1-0	3-2	4-4	2L
Pacers	3	6	0.333	111.2	114.2	-3	0-4	3-2	0-1	1-5	3-6	1W
Bulls	1	7	0.125	111.6	129.6	-18	0-2	1-5	1-0	1-7	1-7	6L
Bucks	1	7	0.125	110	122.3	-12.3	1-3	0-4	1-2	1-5	1-7	4L

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	5	4	0.556	115.8	113	2.8	1-2	4-2	3-1	5-1	5-4	2W
Wizards	4	4	0.5	108.9	109	-0.1	2-2	2-2	2-2	4-4	4-4	1L
Heat	3	5	0.375	118	122.9	-4.9	1-3	2-2	1-1	2-2	3-5	1W
Hornets	3	6	0.333	98.1	109.2	-11.1	2-3	1-3	2-2	3-6	3-6	5L
Magic	2	5	0.286	105.7	114.7	-9	0-4	2-1	0-2	2-4	2-5	2L

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Trail Blazers	6	1	0.857	121.9	110.7	11.2	1-1	5-0	2-0	6-1	6-1	3W
Thunder	6	2	0.75	110	108.8	1.2	4-0	2-2	1-0	4-2	6-2	2W
Timberwolves	6	3	0.667	118.8	107.6	11.2	3-1	3-2	0-0	2-2	6-3	2W
Nuggets	4	3	0.571	115.4	114.7	0.7	2-2	2-1	0-2	3-3	4-3	1W
Jazz	1	7	0.125	107.8	119	-11.2	1-4	0-3	0-1	1-7	1-7	6L

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Lakers	7	2	0.778	121.8	113.9	7.9	4-1	3-1	4-1	5-2	7-2	3W
Warriors	5	3	0.625	117.5	114.6	2.9	3-1	2-2	3-2	5-3	5-3	5W
Suns	1	5	0.167	113.3	124.3	-11	1-2	0-3	1-1	1-5	1-5	4L
Clippers	1	7	0.125	109.1	115.6	-6.5	1-3	0-4	1-3	1-5	1-7	7L
Kings	1	7	0.125	109.3	123.3	-14	0-3	1-4	0-2	1-7	1-7	1L

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Rockets	7	2	0.778	117.9	107.6	10.3	4-1	3-1	2-1	3-2	7-2	1L
Spurs	6	2	0.75	116.9	108.6	8.3	4-2	2-0	2-1	6-2	6-2	6W
Grizzlies	6	2	0.75	120.5	109.8	10.7	2-2	4-0	0-1	6-1	6-2	2L
Pelicans	4	4	0.5	121.6	119.3	2.3	3-2	1-2	1-0	3-3	4-4	4W
Mavericks	4	4	0.5	112.1	112.3	-0.2	2-2	2-2	1-3	2-4	4-4	2L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
76ers	8	1	0.889	111	105.2	5.8	4-1	4-0	2-0	8-1	8-1	5W
Pistons	6	2	0.75	111.1	101.8	9.3	2-1	4-1	0-0	6-2	6-2	1L
Celtics	6	2	0.75	114.3	108.3	6	5-0	1-2	2-0	6-1	6-2	1W
Hawks	5	4	0.556	115.8	113	2.8	1-2	4-2	3-1	5-1	5-4	2W
Raptors	4	4	0.5	117.9	113.5	4.4	2-1	2-3	0-0	3-1	4-4	1L
Cavaliers	4	4	0.5	119.3	117.1	2.2	3-1	1-3	1-0	3-2	4-4	2L
Wizards	4	4	0.5	108.9	109	-0.1	2-2	2-2	2-2	4-4	4-4	1L
Knicks	4	4	0.5	110	105.1	4.9	3-2	1-2	1-3	4-4	4-4	2W
Heat	3	5	0.375	118	122.9	-4.9	1-3	2-2	1-1	2-2	3-5	1W
Hornets	3	6	0.333	98.1	109.2	-11.1	2-3	1-3	2-2	3-6	3-6	5L
Pacers	3	6	0.333	111.2	114.2	-3	0-4	3-2	0-1	1-5	3-6	1W
Magic	2	5	0.286	105.7	114.7	-9	0-4	2-1	0-2	2-4	2-5	2L
Nets	2	6	0.25	106.6	112.9	-6.3	1-3	1-3	0-2	2-6	2-6	1W
Bulls	1	7	0.125	111.6	129.6	-18	0-2	1-5	1-0	1-7	1-7	6L
Bucks	1	7	0.125	110	122.3	-12.3	1-3	0-4	1-2	1-5	1-7	4L

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Trail Blazers	6	1	0.857	121.9	110.7	11.2	1-1	5-0	2-0	6-1	6-1	3W
Lakers	7	2	0.778	121.8	113.9	7.9	4-1	3-1	4-1	5-2	7-2	3W
Rockets	7	2	0.778	117.9	107.6	10.3	4-1	3-1	2-1	3-2	7-2	1L
Thunder	6	2	0.75	110	108.8	1.2	4-0	2-2	1-0	4-2	6-2	2W
Spurs	6	2	0.75	116.9	108.6	8.3	4-2	2-0	2-1	6-2	6-2	6W
Grizzlies	6	2	0.75	120.5	109.8	10.7	2-2	4-0	0-1	6-1	6-2	2L
Timberwolves	6	3	0.667	118.8	107.6	11.2	3-1	3-2	0-0	2-2	6-3	2W
Warriors	5	3	0.625	117.5	114.6	2.9	3-1	2-2	3-2	5-3	5-3	5W
Nuggets	4	3	0.571	115.4	114.7	0.7	2-2	2-1	0-2	3-3	4-3	1W
Pelicans	4	4	0.5	121.6	119.3	2.3	3-2	1-2	1-0	3-3	4-4	4W
Mavericks	4	4	0.5	112.1	112.3	-0.2	2-2	2-2	1-3	2-4	4-4	2L
Suns	1	5	0.167	113.3	124.3	-11	1-2	0-3	1-1	1-5	1-5	4L
Clippers	1	7	0.125	109.1	115.6	-6.5	1-3	0-4	1-3	1-5	1-7	7L
Kings	1	7	0.125	109.3	123.3	-14	0-3	1-4	0-2	1-7	1-7	1L
Jazz	1	7	0.125	107.8	119	-11.2	1-4	0-3	0-1	1-7	1-7	6L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
76ers	8	1	0.889	111	105.2	5.8	4-1	4-0	2-0	8-1	8-1	5W
Trail Blazers	6	1	0.857	121.9	110.7	11.2	1-1	5-0	2-0	6-1	6-1	3W
Rockets	7	2	0.778	117.9	107.6	10.3	4-1	3-1	2-1	3-2	7-2	1L
Lakers	7	2	0.778	121.8	113.9	7.9	4-1	3-1	4-1	5-2	7-2	3W
Celtics	6	2	0.75	114.3	108.3	6	5-0	1-2	2-0	6-1	6-2	1W
Pistons	6	2	0.75	111.1	101.8	9.3	2-1	4-1	0-0	6-2	6-2	1L
Grizzlies	6	2	0.75	120.5	109.8	10.7	2-2	4-0	0-1	6-1	6-2	2L
Thunder	6	2	0.75	110	108.8	1.2	4-0	2-2	1-0	4-2	6-2	2W
Spurs	6	2	0.75	116.9	108.6	8.3	4-2	2-0	2-1	6-2	6-2	6W
Timberwolves	6	3	0.667	118.8	107.6	11.2	3-1	3-2	0-0	2-2	6-3	2W
Warriors	5	3	0.625	117.5	114.6	2.9	3-1	2-2	3-2	5-3	5-3	5W
Nuggets	4	3	0.571	115.4	114.7	0.7	2-2	2-1	0-2	3-3	4-3	1W
Hawks	5	4	0.556	115.8	113	2.8	1-2	4-2	3-1	5-1	5-4	2W
Cavaliers	4	4	0.5	119.3	117.1	2.2	3-1	1-3	1-0	3-2	4-4	2L
Mavericks	4	4	0.5	112.1	112.3	-0.2	2-2	2-2	1-3	2-4	4-4	2L
Pelicans	4	4	0.5	121.6	119.3	2.3	3-2	1-2	1-0	3-3	4-4	4W
Knicks	4	4	0.5	110	105.1	4.9	3-2	1-2	1-3	4-4	4-4	2W
Raptors	4	4	0.5	117.9	113.5	4.4	2-1	2-3	0-0	3-1	4-4	1L
Wizards	4	4	0.5	108.9	109	-0.1	2-2	2-2	2-2	4-4	4-4	1L
Heat	3	5	0.375	118	122.9	-4.9	1-3	2-2	1-1	2-2	3-5	1W
Hornets	3	6	0.333	98.1	109.2	-11.1	2-3	1-3	2-2	3-6	3-6	5L
Pacers	3	6	0.333	111.2	114.2	-3	0-4	3-2	0-1	1-5	3-6	1W
Magic	2	5	0.286	105.7	114.7	-9	0-4	2-1	0-2	2-4	2-5	2L
Nets	2	6	0.25	106.6	112.9	-6.3	1-3	1-3	0-2	2-6	2-6	1W
Suns	1	5	0.167	113.3	124.3	-11	1-2	0-3	1-1	1-5	1-5	4L
Bulls	1	7	0.125	111.6	129.6	-18	0-2	1-5	1-0	1-7	1-7	6L
Clippers	1	7	0.125	109.1	115.6	-6.5	1-3	0-4	1-3	1-5	1-7	7L
Bucks	1	7	0.125	110	122.3	-12.3	1-3	0-4	1-2	1-5	1-7	4L
Kings	1	7	0.125	109.3	123.3	-14	0-3	1-4	0-2	1-7	1-7	1L
Jazz	1	7	0.125	107.8	119	-11.2	1-4	0-3	0-1	1-7	1-7	6L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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