Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Sunday

NBA Betting Preview: Heat vs Pacers

The Miami Heat take the court against the Indiana Pacers in this NBA clash. Our betting preview features expert NBA predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and confirmed starting lineups.

We’re delighted to see the Pacers have been given a headstart on the spread. Take the +9 at -110 when they go up against the Heat.

Miami Heat were beaten in their previous game and this was on the road at Rocket Arena. Cleveland Cavaliers claimed a 149-128 win. Jaime Jaquez Jr. poured in 20 points, with Norman Powell contributing 15 and Kel'el Ware adding 14.

Indiana Pacers have lost their last eleven home games, most recently suffering a 114-113 defeat to LA Clippers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Aaron Nesmith scored 26 points, with Obadiah Toppin adding 20 and Micah Potter 13.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Pacers beat the Heat in their last head-to-head matchup. It was a 123-99 scoreline at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. In the previous 10 games between the teams, they have won five apiece.

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pacers	1	0	1	123	120	3	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Heat	0	1	0	106	131	-25	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L

View Full Standings

The Heat have 4 wins and 6 losses in the past 10 games. They are averaging 121.3 points, 43.0 rebounds, 28.6 assists, 8.3 steals and 3.8 blocks while shooting 46.2% from the field and 83.2% from the free-throw line. The opposition have an average of 124.6 points and 44.6 rebounds per matchup.

Bam Adebayo is averaging 25.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.2 (26.5%) 3-pointers made, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 4.9 assists.

The Pacers have won 1 and lost 9 of their last 10 contests. Averaging 115.1 points, 38.5 rebounds, 31.0 assists, 6.4 steals and 4.1 blocks per game while shooting 49.0% from the field and 83.2% from the free-throw line. Their opponents have averaged 124.6 points and 45.6 rebounds.

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 16.6 points and 2.7 (47.4%) 3-pointers made. Jarace Walker has an average of 6.0 rebounds and Andrew Nembhard 5.9 assists.

Confirmed Starting Lineups

Miami Heat lineup: Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell.

Indiana Pacers lineup: Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Pascal Siakam, Ethan Thompson.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction & Picks

Approach Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely score outcome, standout player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

Pacers are more than capable of staying close to the favorites so there’s a strong case for betting them against the spread in this NBA contest. Take the -110 for the +9 that is available.

We put solid research behind every basketball prediction, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key NBA stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.

Key Heat vs Pacers stats:

• The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 4 consecutive games at home.
• The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 14 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -9 line hasn’t been covered by Heat in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -9 line hasn’t been covered by Heat in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 7 of their last 10 games against Heat.

Pacers +9 Probability

The top NBA sportsbooks suggest there’s a 52.4% chance of our pick landing a return. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this wager.

If the initial odds don’t grab your fancy, there’s the option to shoot for more juice by moving the line when it comes to your points spread pick. It all comes down to how confident you feel.

Maximize your first bet with the latest betting promotions. Our guide covers all the top welcome bonuses out there.

Our Game Prediction

Pacers +9 @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 28, 20:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aaron Nesmith Over 13.5 Points -100

Aaron Nesmith (Pacers) has scored an average of 18.44 points in the past 9 games. He looks like a solid bet to cover the Player Points line and you’re able to back this pick at odds of -100.

Latest Aaron Nesmith Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 13.5

-105

Under 13.5

-130

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-110

Under 3.5

-123

---

Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 Rebounds -118

Bam Adebayo (Heat) has recorded an average of 14.75 rebounds in the past 4 games on the road. In our opinion, there is value when it comes to him covering the line, with odds of -118 now available.

Latest Bam Adebayo Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 22.5

-120

Under 22.5

-114

Assists

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-141

Rebounds

Over 10.5

-130

Under 10.5

-105

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Heat 121 - 115 Pacers

There’s a big payout on the cards should you correctly predict the correct score. We’re siding with the Heat to claim a 121-115 victory which will hopefully go close.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The Miami Heat odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -417 betting favorites to land victory in this NBA game which means a 81% chance of winning. Indiana Pacers are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +330.

9.5 is the spread and 246.5 is the total points line. Basketball bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you fancy Under 246.5, then the odds are -112.

There are a wide range of team props and game lines when it comes to wagering on this exciting league and we recommend visiting the best basketball sportsbooks to find the wager that matches your view on the contest.

Moneyline

Heat

-417

Pacers

+330

Point Spread

Heat -9.5

-110

Pacers +9.5

-110

Total Points

Under 246.5

-112

Over 246.5

-108

Bam Adebayo is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can back -120 that he gets Over 22.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -114.

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 22.5

-120

Under 22.5

-114

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Over 22.5

-115

Under 22.5

-118

Pascal Siakam (Pacers)

Over 22.5

-108

Under 22.5

-127

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 18.5

-128

Under 18.5

-105

Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-120

Jarace Walker (Pacers)

Over 13.5

-130

Under 13.5

-105

Aaron Nesmith (Pacers)

Over 13.5

-105

Under 13.5

-130

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 12.5

-133

Under 12.5

-103

Kel'el Ware (Heat)

Over 9.5

-112

Under 9.5

-120

Jay Huff (Pacers)

Over 9.5

-104

Under 9.5

-132

Davion Mitchell (Heat)

Over 9.5

-103

Under 9.5

-133

Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)

Over 8.5

-110

Under 8.5

-123

Davion Mitchell (Heat)

Over 5.5

-139

Under 5.5

+102

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Over 4.5

+107

Under 4.5

-147

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-141

Pascal Siakam (Pacers)

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-135

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 2.5

+112

Under 2.5

-152

Jarace Walker (Pacers)

Over 2.5

-147

Under 2.5

+107

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-164

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 10.5

-130

Under 10.5

-105

Kel'el Ware (Heat)

Over 8.5

+112

Under 8.5

-152

Pascal Siakam (Pacers)

Over 6.5

+108

Under 6.5

-147

Jarace Walker (Pacers)

Over 6.5

+108

Under 6.5

-147

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Over 5.5

+117

Under 5.5

-161

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 4.5

-115

Under 4.5

-118

Jay Huff (Pacers)

Over 4.5

+104

Under 4.5

-139

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 3.5

-127

Under 3.5

-108

Aaron Nesmith (Pacers)

Over 3.5

-110

Under 3.5

-123

Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)

Over 2.5

-139

Under 2.5

+104

Davion Mitchell (Heat)

Over 2.5

-185

Under 2.5

+135

There are some exciting basketball micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are Next Field Goal, where you select if the shot will be a two or three-pointer. The long-ball option pays better, and in today’s game, you can never discount the three-pointer.

The Pacers are 0-10 in their last 10 home games, putting up 114.30 points on average and giving up 126.00.

The Heat own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 122.10 points scored and 119.20 points allowed.

The Pacers beat the Heat 123-99 when they last met at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, both teams have notched five wins.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O243.5	U243.5
Indiana Pacers Home Stats		0-10	240.30	114.30	126.00	5	5
Miami Heat Away Stats		5-5	241.30	122.10	119.20	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O243.5 = Games Over 243.5 Points
• U243.5 = Games Under 243.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Miami Heat Stats

Indiana Pacers Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games
• 0 wins and 10 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -9 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -9 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +9 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +9 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 245.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 241.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 243.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 243.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 121.30 pts and allowed 124.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 122.10 pts and allowed 119.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 239.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 240.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 243.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 243.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 115.10 pts and allowed 124.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 114.30 pts and allowed 126.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 28.30 (58%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 13.50 (33%)
• Free Throws Made: 24.20 (83.16%)
• Rebounds: Total 43, Offensive 10.80, Defensive 32.20
• Assists: 28.60
• Blocks: 3.80
• Steals: 8.30
• Turnovers : 12.00
• Personal Fouls: 20.50

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 27.80 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 15.50 (37%)
• Free Throws Made: 20.00 (80%)
• Rebounds: Total 48.3, Offensive 12.40, Defensive 35.90
• Assists: 29.10
• Blocks: 4.00
• Steals: 8.30
• Turnovers : 11.70
• Personal Fouls: 18.10

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 27.30 (56%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.90 (40%)
• Free Throws Made: 15.80 (83.16%)
• Rebounds: Total 38.5, Offensive 8.00, Defensive 30.50
• Assists: 31.00
• Blocks: 4.10
• Steals: 6.40
• Turnovers : 14.10
• Personal Fouls: 20.10

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 28.30 (57%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 13.90 (37%)
• Free Throws Made: 16.00 (78.82%)
• Rebounds: Total 38.6, Offensive 9.10, Defensive 29.50
• Assists: 30.00
• Blocks: 4.10
• Steals: 6.90
• Turnovers : 15.10
• Personal Fouls: 20.10

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Indiana Pacers Confirmed Lineup

2 Andrew Nembhard

18 Jalen Slawson

29 Quenton Jackson

43 Pascal Siakam

55 Ethan Thompson

Miami Heat Confirmed Lineup

9 Pelle Larsson

13 Bam Adebayo

14 Tyler Herro

22 Andrew Wiggins

45 Davion Mitchell

NBA Table Select Season 2026/20272025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
76ers	2	0	1	110	103	7	1-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2W
Raptors	1	0	1	135	92	43	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Knicks	0	1	0	100	106	-6	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Nets	0	1	0	103	110	-7	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Celtics	0	1	0	113	121	-8	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	1	0	1	121	113	8	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Pacers	1	0	1	123	120	3	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Cavaliers	0	1	0	106	114	-8	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Bucks	0	2	0	120.5	130	-9.5	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-2	0-2	2L
Bulls	1	1	0.5	112	130	-18	0-0	1-1	1-0	1-1	1-1	1W

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	1	0	1	132	125	7	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Wizards	1	0	1	128	116	12	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Hornets	1	0	1	110	103	7	0-0	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Magic	0	1	0	125	132	-7	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Heat	0	1	0	106	131	-25	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	2	0	1	106	94	12	1-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2W
Trail Blazers	1	0	1	124	83	41	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Timberwolves	1	0	1	131	106	25	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Nuggets	0	1	0	84	96	-12	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Jazz	0	1	0	103	123	-20	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Clippers	1	0	1	121	96	25	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Lakers	1	0	1	127	105	22	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Warriors	0	1	0	105	127	-22	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Kings	0	1	0	96	121	-25	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Suns	0	1	0	83	124	-41	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Rockets	1	0	1	128	110	18	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Grizzlies	1	0	1	123	103	20	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Mavericks	0	1	0	110	128	-18	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Spurs	0	1	0	104	116	-12	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Pelicans	0	1	0	120	123	-3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
76ers	2	0	1	110	103	7	1-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2W
Pistons	1	0	1	121	113	8	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Hawks	1	0	1	132	125	7	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Raptors	1	0	1	135	92	43	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Wizards	1	0	1	128	116	12	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Hornets	1	0	1	110	103	7	0-0	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Pacers	1	0	1	123	120	3	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Knicks	0	1	0	100	106	-6	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Nets	0	1	0	103	110	-7	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Magic	0	1	0	125	132	-7	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Celtics	0	1	0	113	121	-8	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Cavaliers	0	1	0	106	114	-8	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Bucks	0	2	0	120.5	130	-9.5	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-2	0-2	2L
Bulls	1	1	0.5	112	130	-18	0-0	1-1	1-0	1-1	1-1	1W
Heat	0	1	0	106	131	-25	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	2	0	1	106	94	12	1-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2W
Clippers	1	0	1	121	96	25	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Rockets	1	0	1	128	110	18	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Trail Blazers	1	0	1	124	83	41	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Lakers	1	0	1	127	105	22	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Grizzlies	1	0	1	123	103	20	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Timberwolves	1	0	1	131	106	25	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Nuggets	0	1	0	84	96	-12	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Spurs	0	1	0	104	116	-12	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Mavericks	0	1	0	110	128	-18	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Jazz	0	1	0	103	123	-20	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Warriors	0	1	0	105	127	-22	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Kings	0	1	0	96	121	-25	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Suns	0	1	0	83	124	-41	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Pelicans	0	1	0	120	123	-3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	1	0	1	132	125	7	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Hornets	1	0	1	110	103	7	0-0	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Pistons	1	0	1	121	113	8	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Rockets	1	0	1	128	110	18	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Pacers	1	0	1	123	120	3	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Clippers	1	0	1	121	96	25	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Lakers	1	0	1	127	105	22	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Grizzlies	1	0	1	123	103	20	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Timberwolves	1	0	1	131	106	25	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1W
Thunder	2	0	1	106	94	12	1-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2W
76ers	2	0	1	110	103	7	1-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2W
Trail Blazers	1	0	1	124	83	41	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Raptors	1	0	1	135	92	43	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Wizards	1	0	1	128	116	12	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	1W
Bulls	1	1	0.5	112	130	-18	0-0	1-1	1-0	1-1	1-1	1W
Celtics	0	1	0	113	121	-8	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Nets	0	1	0	103	110	-7	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Cavaliers	0	1	0	106	114	-8	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Mavericks	0	1	0	110	128	-18	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Nuggets	0	1	0	84	96	-12	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Warriors	0	1	0	105	127	-22	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Heat	0	1	0	106	131	-25	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L
Bucks	0	2	0	120.5	130	-9.5	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-2	0-2	2L
Pelicans	0	1	0	120	123	-3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1L
Knicks	0	1	0	100	106	-6	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Magic	0	1	0	125	132	-7	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Suns	0	1	0	83	124	-41	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Kings	0	1	0	96	121	-25	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-1	1L
Spurs	0	1	0	104	116	-12	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L
Jazz	0	1	0	103	123	-20	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-1	1L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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