Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 12 May 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

The Minnesota Lynx battle the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Tuesday, May 12.

The -114 about Under 171.5 points makes plenty of appeal and represents value in our eyes. We’re not sure if the Lynx and the Mercury can combine to reach that total.

Minnesota Lynx were defeated in their previous game. They were beaten at home to Atlanta Dream by a 91-90 scoreline at Target Center.

Phoenix Mercury were defeated in their last game. On the road, they suffered a 95-79 reverse against Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury beat the Lynx when the teams last met. It was a 86-81 scoreline at Mortgage Matchup Center. The Mercury have beaten the Lynx on three consecutive occasions. Going back over 10 meetings, they have lost 6 of the past 10 head-to-head matchups.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	22	6	2562	2319	243	10-4	12-2	7W
12  Mercury	10	18	2323	2423	-100	4-9	6-9	2W

View Full Standings

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Our expert Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury tips include betting advice on all fronts — from a main match prediction and player prop guidance to a correct score selection and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

Under 171.5 points looks like an attractive total bet. The teams might not be able to reach this combined amount and we can profit with this WNBA pick at -114.

The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key WNBA stats to help shape our basketball predictions and guide the final call.

Key Lynx vs Mercury stats:

• The 171.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Lynx games on the road.
• The 171.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Lynx games on the road.
• The 171.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Lynx games on the road.
• The 171.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Mercury games at home.
• The 171.5 line hasn’t been covered in 16 of the last 20 Mercury games at home.
• The 171.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 171.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 53.2% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability close to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

There’s the chance to boost your odds about an Under pick. The Match Result & Total lines provide a prime opportunity to squeeze more juice by predicting the winner too.

Before placing your bet, tap into the latest welcome bonuses. Our detailed guide shows you where to get the best value.

Our Game Prediction

Under 171.5 Points @ -114 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 12, 02:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Kahleah Copper Under 3.5 Rebounds -172

Kahleah Copper (Mercury) can be backed to total Under 3.5 rebounds at -172. We’re pretty confident that this Player Rebounds wager will end up falling short of the line.

Latest Kahleah Copper Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 18.5

-116

Under 18.5

-111

Assists

Over 2.5

+139

Under 2.5

-182

Rebounds

Over 3.5

+128

Under 3.5

-167

---

Olivia Miles Under 6.5 Assists +112

Olivia Miles (Lynx) can be wagered to total Under 6.5 assists at +112. There is a strong case for siding with her to fall short of the required total on the Player Assists line.

Latest Olivia Miles Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-101

Under 14.5

-128

Assists

Over 6.5

-147

Under 6.5

+114

Rebounds

Over 4.5

-101

Under 4.5

-128

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Lynx 82 - 83 Mercury

We’ll roll the dice and go for the Mercury to enjoy a 83-82 victory. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams and we’re happy to take the huge odds.

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Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Phoenix Mercury are -222 favorites and that means a 69% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. Minnesota Lynx are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +176.

5.5 is the spread and 168.5 is the total points line. The Totals offers basketball bettors an alternative way of getting involved. Those that want to back Under 168.5 can find odds of -110 available.

Fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every women's basketball matchup on the coupon. Head to the top betting apps and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

Lynx

+176

Mercury

-222

Point Spread

Lynx +5.5

-118

Mercury -5.5

-104

Total Points

Under 168.5

-110

Over 168.5

-110

Kahleah Copper is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can get -116 that she scores Over 18.5 points or -111 that she goes Under.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 18.5

-116

Under 18.5

-111

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 16.5

-123

Under 16.5

-105

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 14.5

-119

Under 14.5

-109

Olivia Miles (Lynx)

Over 14.5

-101

Under 14.5

-128

Natasha Howard (Lynx)

Over 11.5

-125

Under 11.5

-103

Jovana Nogic (Mercury)

Over 11.5

-120

Under 11.5

-108

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Nia Coffey (Lynx)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-130

Under 9.5

-100

Olivia Miles (Lynx)

Over 6.5

-147

Under 6.5

+114

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 4.5

-149

Under 4.5

+115

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+139

Under 2.5

-182

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 2.5

-149

Under 2.5

+115

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

+110

Nia Coffey (Lynx)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-154

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+107

Under 9.5

-139

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-143

Under 7.5

+110

Natasha Howard (Lynx)

Over 6.5

-149

Under 6.5

+115

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

+101

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 4.5

-161

Under 4.5

+123

Olivia Miles (Lynx)

Over 4.5

-101

Under 4.5

-128

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+128

Under 3.5

-167

Nia Coffey (Lynx)

Over 3.5

-137

Under 3.5

+106

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 2.5

+117

Under 2.5

-152

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 166.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 161.00 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 167.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.40 pts and allowed 80.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 81.10 pts and allowed 79.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 170.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 170.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 167.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 83.90 pts and allowed 86.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 84.50 pts and allowed 85.90 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	22	6	2562	2319	243	10-4	12-2	7W
2  Valkyries	19	8	2211	2062	149	11-4	8-4	1L
3  Aces	18	8	2366	2245	121	7-5	11-3	1L
4  Wings	18	9	2436	2327	109	8-4	10-5	1W
5  Fever	17	10	2578	2419	159	11-5	6-5	3W
6  Dream	16	10	2323	2217	106	9-4	7-6	3W
7  Liberty	15	12	2390	2327	63	8-5	7-7	2W
8  Mystics	14	12	2100	2161	-61	6-6	8-6	2W
9  Fire	11	16	2304	2446	-142	6-7	5-9	2L
10  Tempo	10	16	2301	2416	-115	6-10	4-6	3L
11  Sparks	10	16	2295	2427	-132	5-8	5-8	5L
12  Mercury	10	18	2323	2423	-100	4-9	6-9	2W
13  Sky	9	18	2363	2423	-60	5-7	4-11	2L
14  Sun	7	20	2160	2351	-191	4-10	3-10	2L
15  Storm	6	23	2375	2524	-149	4-10	2-13	6L

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