Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Saturday

NBA Playoffs Betting Preview: Wolves vs Nuggets

The No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33, 23-18 away) face the No. 3 Denver Nuggets (54-28, 28-13 at home) in Game 1 of this first-round NBA Playoffs series.

Place a wager on the Nuggets with a -6.5 spread when they host the Timberwolves. Denver are in red-hot form right now and we’re confident they can cover this line at odds of -110.

The Minnesota Timberwolves head into this series on a two-game winning streak, most recently beating the New Orleans Pelicans 132-126 at Target Center. Terrence Shannon Jr. finished with 26 points, while Joan Beringer added 24 and Zyon Pullin chipped in with 19.

The Denver Nuggets won their last outing, beating the San Antonio Spurs 128-118 on the road at Frost Bank Center for their 12th straight win. Julian Strawther finished with 25 points, Nikola Jokić added 23, and Jonas Valančiūnas had 16 points and 11 rebounds.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Wolves beat the Nuggets 117-108 in their last meeting at Ball Arena. However, Denver has won seven of the last 10 matchups.

NBA Reg. Season	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	54	28	0.659	122.1	116.9	5.2	28-13	26-15	11-5	36-16	10-0	12W
Timberwolves	49	33	0.598	118	114.6	3.4	26-15	23-18	9-7	31-21	5-5	2W

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

It’s time to go for Nuggets against the spread, especially with an attractive -6.5 line at -110. Our pick is that the favorites can secure a comfortable win in Game 1.

The formbook is always a smart starting point when making basketball picks. Up-to-date NBA team news is just as important, while the stats we provide often reveal valuable insights.

Key Timberwolves vs Nuggets stats:

• The -6.5 line has been covered by Nuggets in 3 consecutive games.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Nuggets in 6 of their last 10 games.

Nuggets -6.5 Probability

The top NBA sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 52.4% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

There are many alternatives to the spread and we particularly like the Winning Margin lines. It’s great whether you’re expecting things to be close or comprehensive.

Don’t miss the chance to claim free bets using our exclusive betting promo codes —check our bonus guide before placing your bets.

Our Game Prediction

Nuggets -6.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 17, 20:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cameron Johnson Over 11.5 Points -130

Cameron Johnson (Nuggets) has racked up Over 11.5 points in 4 straight games. It makes sense to bet on him to cover the line and there are odds of -130 available for this Player Points wager.

Latest Cameron Johnson Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 11.5

-130

Under 11.5

-104

Assists

Over 2.5

+124

Under 2.5

-161

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-115

Under 3.5

-118

---

Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists -102

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) has totaled Over 2.5 assists in 3 straight games. On the basis of this stat, we can shoot for him to once again cover the Player Assists line and this is on offer at -102.

Latest Aaron Gordon Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-130

Under 14.5

-105

Assists

Over 2.5

-102

Under 2.5

-127

Rebounds

Over 5.5

-127

Under 5.5

-108

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Timberwolves 115 - 124 Nuggets

There’s the chance to bet on the Nuggets in a variety of ways, including predicting the correct final score. We’ll go for a 124-115 win in their favor.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 73% chance of securing victory, the Denver Nuggets are favorites for this first-round game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -270. For those wanting to back the Minnesota Timberwolves, you will find +220 about the underdogs.

6.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 231.5 right now. Basketball bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you’re wanting to back Over 231.5, the odds are -106.

You can find hundreds of game lines and team props for every contest, with the top betting sites creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Timberwolves

+220

Nuggets

-270

Point Spread

Timberwolves +6.5

-110

Nuggets -6.5

-110

Total Points

Under 231.5

-114

Over 231.5

-106

Nikola Jokic is favorite when it comes to hitting the most buckets. You can get -114 that he goes Over 28.5 points and -120 when it comes to Under.

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-120

Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)

Over 26.5

-114

Under 26.5

-120

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 24.5

-106

Under 24.5

-128

Julius Randle (Timberwolves)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-120

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 14.5

-130

Under 14.5

-105

Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves)

Over 14.5

-130

Under 14.5

-105

Naz Reid (Timberwolves)

Over 12.5

-127

Under 12.5

-108

Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)

Over 11.5

-130

Under 11.5

-104

Tim Hardaway Jr (Nuggets)

Over 11.5

-112

Under 11.5

-122

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 11.5

-110

Under 11.5

-122

Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves)

Over 11.5

-100

Under 11.5

-133

Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves)

Over 10.5

-105

Under 10.5

-130

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 9.5

-103

Under 9.5

-133

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-143

Under 5.5

+107

Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-149

Julius Randle (Timberwolves)

Over 4.5

-130

Under 4.5

-105

Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves)

Over 3.5

-104

Under 3.5

-132

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

-102

Under 2.5

-127

Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-105

Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

+124

Under 2.5

-161

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

+126

Under 2.5

-164

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

+102

Under 13.5

-139

Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves)

Over 10.5

-130

Under 10.5

-105

Julius Randle (Timberwolves)

Over 6.5

+104

Under 6.5

-141

Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)

Over 5.5

+105

Under 5.5

-143

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-127

Under 5.5

-108

Naz Reid (Timberwolves)

Over 5.5

-159

Under 5.5

+118

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

-112

Under 4.5

-122

Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves)

Over 4.5

+106

Under 4.5

-143

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

-115

Under 4.5

-118

Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-115

Under 3.5

-118

Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves)

Over 3.5

-125

Under 3.5

-109

The Nuggets are 10-0 in their last 10 home games, putting up 130.20 points on average and giving up 117.20.

The Wolves own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 road games, putting up 117.50 points on average and giving up 116.80.

The Wolves beat the Nuggets 117-108 when they last met at Ball Arena. In the last 10 head-to-head games at Ball Arena, the Wolves have notched seven victories, with the Nuggets posting three.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O231.5	U231.5
Denver Nuggets Home Stats		10-0	247.40	130.20	117.20	8	2
Minnesota Timberwolves Away Stats		5-5	234.30	117.50	116.80	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O231.5 = Games Over 231.5 Points
• U231.5 = Games Under 231.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Minnesota Timberwolves Stats

Denver Nuggets Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 230.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 234.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 231.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 231.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 115.20 pts and allowed 115.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 117.50 pts and allowed 116.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 251.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 247.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 231.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
• Over 231.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 131.20 pts and allowed 120.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 130.20 pts and allowed 117.20 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 28.70 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 13.70 (35%)
• Free Throws Made: 16.70 (75.57%)
• Rebounds: Total 40.4, Offensive 10.40, Defensive 30.00
• Assists: 25.30
• Blocks: 6.90
• Steals: 8.90
• Turnovers : 13.40
• Personal Fouls: 21.20

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.50 (56%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.10 (40%)
• Free Throws Made: 16.20 (79.41%)
• Rebounds: Total 40.6, Offensive 8.80, Defensive 31.80
• Assists: 25.10
• Blocks: 5.40
• Steals: 8.00
• Turnovers : 15.00
• Personal Fouls: 20.90

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 31.50 (58%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 16.30 (42%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.30 (81.78%)
• Rebounds: Total 48.6, Offensive 11.50, Defensive 37.10
• Assists: 32.60
• Blocks: 4.30
• Steals: 6.30
• Turnovers : 11.20
• Personal Fouls: 20.10

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.40 (59%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 17.10 (43%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.10 (81.53%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.8, Offensive 9.30, Defensive 36.50
• Assists: 32.90
• Blocks: 3.90
• Steals: 6.40
• Turnovers : 11.40
• Personal Fouls: 19.50

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of tip-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

NBA Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	56	26	0.683	114.9	107.2	7.7	30-11	26-15	10-6	36-16	8-2	2W
Knicks	53	29	0.646	116.5	110.1	6.4	30-10	23-19	14-3	35-17	6-4	1L
Raptors	46	36	0.561	114.6	111.8	2.8	24-17	22-19	5-12	33-19	6-4	1W
76ers	45	37	0.549	115.9	116.1	-0.2	23-18	22-19	9-7	27-25	6-4	2W
Nets	20	62	0.244	105.9	115.9	-10	12-29	8-33	3-13	14-37	3-7	3L

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	60	22	0.732	117.8	109.6	8.2	32-9	28-13	12-4	39-13	8-2	3W
Cavaliers	52	30	0.634	119.5	115.4	4.1	27-14	25-16	11-5	33-19	7-3	1W
Bucks	32	50	0.39	110.6	116.8	-6.2	19-22	13-28	9-7	21-31	3-7	1L
Bulls	31	51	0.378	116.3	121.5	-5.2	18-23	13-28	4-12	19-32	2-8	2L
Pacers	19	63	0.232	112.4	120.4	-8	11-30	8-33	4-12	15-37	3-7	2L

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	46	36	0.561	118.5	116	2.5	24-17	22-19	9-7	27-25	6-4	1L
Magic	45	37	0.549	115.7	115.1	0.6	26-16	19-21	9-8	26-26	7-3	1L
Hornets	44	38	0.537	116	111.2	4.8	21-20	23-18	11-5	26-26	6-4	1W
Heat	43	39	0.524	120.9	118.5	2.4	26-15	17-24	10-7	27-25	5-5	2W
Wizards	17	65	0.207	112.9	124.9	-12	11-30	6-35	2-14	11-41	0-10	10L

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	64	18	0.78	119	107.9	11.1	34-8	30-10	12-4	41-11	7-3	2L
Nuggets	54	28	0.659	122.1	116.9	5.2	28-13	26-15	11-5	36-16	10-0	12W
Timberwolves	49	33	0.598	118	114.6	3.4	26-15	23-18	9-7	31-21	5-5	2W
Trail Blazers	42	40	0.512	115.5	115.8	-0.3	24-17	18-23	7-9	29-23	7-3	2W
Jazz	22	60	0.268	117.6	126	-8.4	14-27	8-33	1-15	12-40	1-9	1L

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Lakers	53	29	0.646	116.3	114.6	1.7	28-13	25-16	10-7	33-19	7-3	3W
Suns	45	37	0.549	112.6	111.1	1.5	25-16	20-21	10-7	29-23	5-5	1W
Clippers	42	40	0.512	113.8	112.6	1.2	23-18	19-22	10-6	25-27	6-4	1W
Warriors	37	45	0.451	114.6	115.2	-0.6	22-19	15-26	7-9	24-28	3-7	3L
Kings	22	60	0.268	111	121	-10	15-26	7-34	4-12	14-38	3-7	1L

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Spurs	62	20	0.756	119.8	111.5	8.3	32-8	30-12	13-3	36-16	8-2	1L
Rockets	52	30	0.634	115.2	110	5.2	30-11	22-19	10-6	29-23	9-1	1W
Pelicans	26	56	0.317	115.5	120	-4.5	17-24	9-32	7-9	17-34	1-9	2L
Mavericks	26	56	0.317	114.1	119.6	-5.5	16-25	10-31	4-12	14-37	3-7	1W
Grizzlies	25	57	0.305	114.7	120.7	-6	14-27	11-30	6-10	19-33	1-9	8L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	60	22	0.732	117.8	109.6	8.2	32-9	28-13	12-4	39-13	8-2	3W
Celtics	56	26	0.683	114.9	107.2	7.7	30-11	26-15	10-6	36-16	8-2	2W
Knicks	53	29	0.646	116.5	110.1	6.4	30-10	23-19	14-3	35-17	6-4	1L
Cavaliers	52	30	0.634	119.5	115.4	4.1	27-14	25-16	11-5	33-19	7-3	1W
Raptors	46	36	0.561	114.6	111.8	2.8	24-17	22-19	5-12	33-19	6-4	1W
Hawks	46	36	0.561	118.5	116	2.5	24-17	22-19	9-7	27-25	6-4	1L
76ers	45	37	0.549	115.9	116.1	-0.2	23-18	22-19	9-7	27-25	6-4	2W
Magic	45	37	0.549	115.7	115.1	0.6	26-16	19-21	9-8	26-26	7-3	1L
Hornets	44	38	0.537	116	111.2	4.8	21-20	23-18	11-5	26-26	6-4	1W
Heat	43	39	0.524	120.9	118.5	2.4	26-15	17-24	10-7	27-25	5-5	2W
Bucks	32	50	0.39	110.6	116.8	-6.2	19-22	13-28	9-7	21-31	3-7	1L
Bulls	31	51	0.378	116.3	121.5	-5.2	18-23	13-28	4-12	19-32	2-8	2L
Nets	20	62	0.244	105.9	115.9	-10	12-29	8-33	3-13	14-37	3-7	3L
Pacers	19	63	0.232	112.4	120.4	-8	11-30	8-33	4-12	15-37	3-7	2L
Wizards	17	65	0.207	112.9	124.9	-12	11-30	6-35	2-14	11-41	0-10	10L

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	64	18	0.78	119	107.9	11.1	34-8	30-10	12-4	41-11	7-3	2L
Spurs	62	20	0.756	119.8	111.5	8.3	32-8	30-12	13-3	36-16	8-2	1L
Nuggets	54	28	0.659	122.1	116.9	5.2	28-13	26-15	11-5	36-16	10-0	12W
Lakers	53	29	0.646	116.3	114.6	1.7	28-13	25-16	10-7	33-19	7-3	3W
Rockets	52	30	0.634	115.2	110	5.2	30-11	22-19	10-6	29-23	9-1	1W
Timberwolves	49	33	0.598	118	114.6	3.4	26-15	23-18	9-7	31-21	5-5	2W
Suns	45	37	0.549	112.6	111.1	1.5	25-16	20-21	10-7	29-23	5-5	1W
Trail Blazers	42	40	0.512	115.5	115.8	-0.3	24-17	18-23	7-9	29-23	7-3	2W
Clippers	42	40	0.512	113.8	112.6	1.2	23-18	19-22	10-6	25-27	6-4	1W
Warriors	37	45	0.451	114.6	115.2	-0.6	22-19	15-26	7-9	24-28	3-7	3L
Pelicans	26	56	0.317	115.5	120	-4.5	17-24	9-32	7-9	17-34	1-9	2L
Mavericks	26	56	0.317	114.1	119.6	-5.5	16-25	10-31	4-12	14-37	3-7	1W
Grizzlies	25	57	0.305	114.7	120.7	-6	14-27	11-30	6-10	19-33	1-9	8L
Kings	22	60	0.268	111	121	-10	15-26	7-34	4-12	14-38	3-7	1L
Jazz	22	60	0.268	117.6	126	-8.4	14-27	8-33	1-15	12-40	1-9	1L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	64	18	0.78	119	107.9	11.1	34-8	30-10	12-4	41-11	7-3	2L
Spurs	62	20	0.756	119.8	111.5	8.3	32-8	30-12	13-3	36-16	8-2	1L
Pistons	60	22	0.732	117.8	109.6	8.2	32-9	28-13	12-4	39-13	8-2	3W
Celtics	56	26	0.683	114.9	107.2	7.7	30-11	26-15	10-6	36-16	8-2	2W
Nuggets	54	28	0.659	122.1	116.9	5.2	28-13	26-15	11-5	36-16	10-0	12W
Lakers	53	29	0.646	116.3	114.6	1.7	28-13	25-16	10-7	33-19	7-3	3W
Knicks	53	29	0.646	116.5	110.1	6.4	30-10	23-19	14-3	35-17	6-4	1L
Cavaliers	52	30	0.634	119.5	115.4	4.1	27-14	25-16	11-5	33-19	7-3	1W
Rockets	52	30	0.634	115.2	110	5.2	30-11	22-19	10-6	29-23	9-1	1W
Timberwolves	49	33	0.598	118	114.6	3.4	26-15	23-18	9-7	31-21	5-5	2W
Hawks	46	36	0.561	118.5	116	2.5	24-17	22-19	9-7	27-25	6-4	1L
Raptors	46	36	0.561	114.6	111.8	2.8	24-17	22-19	5-12	33-19	6-4	1W
Magic	45	37	0.549	115.7	115.1	0.6	26-16	19-21	9-8	26-26	7-3	1L
76ers	45	37	0.549	115.9	116.1	-0.2	23-18	22-19	9-7	27-25	6-4	2W
Suns	45	37	0.549	112.6	111.1	1.5	25-16	20-21	10-7	29-23	5-5	1W
Hornets	44	38	0.537	116	111.2	4.8	21-20	23-18	11-5	26-26	6-4	1W
Heat	43	39	0.524	120.9	118.5	2.4	26-15	17-24	10-7	27-25	5-5	2W
Clippers	42	40	0.512	113.8	112.6	1.2	23-18	19-22	10-6	25-27	6-4	1W
Trail Blazers	42	40	0.512	115.5	115.8	-0.3	24-17	18-23	7-9	29-23	7-3	2W
Warriors	37	45	0.451	114.6	115.2	-0.6	22-19	15-26	7-9	24-28	3-7	3L
Bucks	32	50	0.39	110.6	116.8	-6.2	19-22	13-28	9-7	21-31	3-7	1L
Bulls	31	51	0.378	116.3	121.5	-5.2	18-23	13-28	4-12	19-32	2-8	2L
Mavericks	26	56	0.317	114.1	119.6	-5.5	16-25	10-31	4-12	14-37	3-7	1W
Pelicans	26	56	0.317	115.5	120	-4.5	17-24	9-32	7-9	17-34	1-9	2L
Grizzlies	25	57	0.305	114.7	120.7	-6	14-27	11-30	6-10	19-33	1-9	8L
Kings	22	60	0.268	111	121	-10	15-26	7-34	4-12	14-38	3-7	1L
Jazz	22	60	0.268	117.6	126	-8.4	14-27	8-33	1-15	12-40	1-9	1L
Nets	20	62	0.244	105.9	115.9	-10	12-29	8-33	3-13	14-37	3-7	3L
Pacers	19	63	0.232	112.4	120.4	-8	11-30	8-33	4-12	15-37	3-7	2L
Wizards	17	65	0.207	112.9	124.9	-12	11-30	6-35	2-14	11-41	0-10	10L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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