New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 01 Aug 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury

The New York Liberty square off against the Phoenix Mercury, with tip-off scheduled for 15:00 on Saturday, August 1.

The Mercury and the Liberty are capable of scoring more than 174.5 points. Therefore, we’re going Over the total line and expect a payout at -110.

New York Liberty were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 104-99 reverse against Las Vegas Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Phoenix Mercury won their last game, beating Golden State Valkyries at home. It was a 91-89 win.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Liberty have claimed consecutive wins over the Mercury. Both victories were achieved at Barclays Center, with a 84-74 followed by a 75-68 scoreline. Both teams have won five games when it comes to the previous 10 H2H meetings.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
7  Liberty	25	16	3686	3555	131	14-6	11-10	2W
11  Mercury	15	27	3543	3668	-125	6-14	9-13	1L

View Full Standings

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Step into New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury with confidence as we bring you our expert match prediction, projected scoreline, best player prop picks and a custom-built bet builder.

Game Prediction

The teams are certainly capable of exceeding the set points total line which leads us to predict Over 174.5 as a value pick at -110 for this WNBA contest.

The WNBA experts at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any basketball predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.

Key Liberty vs Mercury stats:

• The 174.5 line has been covered in the last 7 Liberty games.
• The 174.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 Liberty games.
• The 174.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Liberty games on the road.
• The 174.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Mercury games.

Over 174.5 Probability

The top basketball sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 52.4% likelihood of this pick winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this WNBA wager.

There are ways to increase the odds if you’re wanting to wager on Overs and one of them is betting on the Match Result & Total lines where you also predict a franchise to win.

Thinking of placing a bet? Make sure to check our guide first — it’s full of the latest offers and welcome bonuses worth claiming.

Our Game Prediction

Over 174.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 31, 19:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists -109

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) is available at -109 to rack up Over 8.5 assists. We’re tempted to back her to cover the Player Assists line, with plenty of juice on offer.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-116

Under 14.5

-111

Assists

Over 8.5

-109

Under 8.5

-119

Rebounds

Over 7.5

-109

Under 7.5

-119

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Kahleah Copper Over 21.5 Points -109

Kahleah Copper (Mercury) can be wagered to rack up Over 21.5 points at -109. She looks like a solid bet to cover the Player Points line and we’re confident with this wager.

Latest Kahleah Copper Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 21.5

-109

Under 21.5

-119

Assists

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+104

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Liberty 90 - 92 Mercury

We’re expecting this to be a close contest and we’ll take the Mercury to win 92-90. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

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New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have New York Liberty as -149 favorites for this WNBA game, implying that they are 60% likely to win. Phoenix Mercury are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +122.

The spread is currently 2.5, with the total points line at 176.5. A wager on the Totals allows basketball bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you’re going for Over 176.5, then the odds are -105.

The best betting sites offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to women's basketball matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Liberty

-149

Mercury

+122

Point Spread

Liberty -2.5

-115

Mercury +2.5

-105

Total Points

Under 176.5

-115

Over 176.5

-105

The favorite to score most points is Breanna Stewart. You can get -102 that she scores Over 22.5 points or -127 that she goes Under.

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 22.5

-102

Under 22.5

-127

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 21.5

-109

Under 21.5

-119

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 19.5

-116

Under 19.5

-111

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-116

Under 14.5

-111

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 13.5

-112

Under 13.5

-115

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-125

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-109

Under 8.5

-119

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 5.5

-123

Under 5.5

-105

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 3.5

-103

Under 3.5

-125

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 2.5

+113

Under 2.5

-147

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 8.5

-102

Under 8.5

-127

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 8.5

-130

Under 8.5

+101

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-109

Under 7.5

-119

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-135

Under 5.5

+105

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 4.5

+126

Under 4.5

-164

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+104

Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on basketball. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen. Next Field Goal, where you select if the shot will be a two or three-pointer are among the options.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New York Liberty Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 189.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 186.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 174.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 93.90 pts and allowed 95.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 91.40 pts and allowed 95.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 168.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 170.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 174.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.40 pts and allowed 85.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 83.90 pts and allowed 86.50 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	31	10	3733	3430	303	14-7	17-3	3L
2  Valkyries	31	11	3457	3140	317	17-5	14-6	6W
3  Aces	28	13	3738	3538	200	13-7	15-6	4W
4  Dream	28	14	3841	3568	273	15-7	13-7	3W
5  Fever	27	14	3983	3723	260	14-6	13-8	3W
6  Wings	26	16	3744	3573	171	16-6	10-10	6W
7  Liberty	25	16	3686	3555	131	14-6	11-10	2W
8  Mystics	25	16	3423	3401	22	13-7	12-9	1W
9  Fire	16	26	3620	3818	-198	8-13	8-13	3L
10  Sparks	15	26	3571	3769	-198	7-13	8-13	1L
11  Mercury	15	27	3543	3668	-125	6-14	9-13	1L
12  Sky	15	27	3628	3803	-175	10-11	5-16	5L
13  Tempo	11	30	3534	3854	-320	7-14	4-16	5L
14  Sun	10	31	3217	3614	-397	7-13	3-18	4L
15  Storm	8	34	3448	3712	-264	6-15	2-19	3L

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