New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 01 Aug 2026
WNBA Betting Preview: New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
The New York Liberty square off against the Phoenix Mercury, with tip-off scheduled for 15:00 on Saturday, August 1.
The Mercury and the Liberty are capable of scoring more than 174.5 points. Therefore, we’re going Over the total line and expect a payout at -110.
New York Liberty were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 104-99 reverse against Las Vegas Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena.
Phoenix Mercury won their last game, beating Golden State Valkyries at home. It was a 91-89 win.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The Liberty have claimed consecutive wins over the Mercury. Both victories were achieved at Barclays Center, with a 84-74 followed by a 75-68 scoreline. Both teams have won five games when it comes to the previous 10 H2H meetings.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8
Liberty
|
16 | 13 | 2602 | 2540 | 62 | 8-5 | 8-8 | 1L |
10
Mercury
|
11 | 18 | 2414 | 2512 | -98 | 5-9 | 6-9 | 3W |
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
Step into New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury with confidence as we bring you our expert match prediction, projected scoreline, best player prop picks and a custom-built bet builder.
Game Prediction
The teams are certainly capable of exceeding the set points total line which leads us to predict Over 174.5 as a value pick at -110 for this WNBA contest.
The WNBA experts at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any basketball predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.
Key Liberty vs Mercury stats:
Over 174.5 Probability
The top basketball sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 52.4% likelihood of this pick winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this WNBA wager.
There are ways to increase the odds if you’re wanting to wager on Overs and one of them is betting on the Match Result & Total lines where you also predict a franchise to win.
Thinking of placing a bet? Make sure to check our guide first — it’s full of the latest offers and welcome bonuses worth claiming.
Player Prop Picks
Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) is available at -109 to rack up Over 8.5 assists. We’re tempted to back her to cover the Player Assists line, with plenty of juice on offer.
Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds
Kahleah Copper (Mercury) can be wagered to rack up Over 21.5 points at -109. She looks like a solid bet to cover the Player Points line and we’re confident with this wager.
Latest Kahleah Copper Player Prop Odds
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
We’ve got a same game parlay with three options: Over 174.5, Mercury +2.5 and Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) to have Over 8.5 assists.
The same game parlay option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same basketball game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored wager on the contest which interests them most.
Correct Score Prediction
90
-
92
Mercury
We’re expecting this to be a close contest and we’ll take the Mercury to win 92-90. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
The sportsbooks’ betting odds have New York Liberty as -143 favorites for this WNBA game, implying that they are 59% likely to win. Phoenix Mercury are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +116.
The spread is currently 2.5, with the total points line at 174.5. A wager on the Totals allows basketball bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you’re going for Over 174.5, then the odds are -110.
The best betting sites offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to women's basketball matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.
The favorite to score most points is Breanna Stewart. You can get -102 that she scores Over 22.5 points or -127 that she goes Under.
- WNBA: 30/05 2026 Mercury 68 Liberty 75
- WNBA: 28/05 2026 Mercury 74 Liberty 84
- WNBA: 20/09 2025 Liberty 73 Mercury 79
- WNBA: 18/09 2025 Mercury 86 Liberty 60
- WNBA: 14/09 2025 Liberty 76 Mercury 69
- WNBA: 31/08 2025 Liberty 63 Mercury 80
- WNBA: 26/07 2025 Mercury 76 Liberty 89
- WNBA: 28/06 2025 Liberty 91 Mercury 106
- WNBA: 20/06 2025 Mercury 89 Liberty 81
- WNBA: 27/08 2024 Liberty 84 Mercury 70
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
New York Liberty Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
- 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
- -2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games on the road
- +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- +2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 189.40 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 186.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 174.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
- Over 174.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 93.90 pts and allowed 95.50 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 91.40 pts and allowed 95.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 168.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 170.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 174.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 174.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.40 pts and allowed 85.60 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 83.90 pts and allowed 86.50 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
24 | 6 | 2766 | 2484 | 282 | 11-4 | 13-2 | 9W |
2
Aces
|
20 | 8 | 2568 | 2427 | 141 | 9-5 | 11-3 | 2W |
3
Valkyries
|
19 | 9 | 2300 | 2153 | 147 | 11-4 | 8-5 | 2L |
4
Wings
|
18 | 10 | 2517 | 2409 | 108 | 8-5 | 10-5 | 1L |
5
Fever
|
18 | 10 | 2683 | 2514 | 169 | 11-5 | 7-5 | 4W |
6
Dream
|
17 | 10 | 2405 | 2298 | 107 | 9-4 | 8-6 | 4W |
7
Mystics
|
15 | 12 | 2192 | 2245 | -53 | 7-6 | 8-6 | 3W |
|
8
Liberty
|
16 | 13 | 2602 | 2540 | 62 | 8-5 | 8-8 | 1L |
9
Fire
|
11 | 17 | 2387 | 2544 | -157 | 6-7 | 5-10 | 3L |
|
10
Mercury
|
11 | 18 | 2414 | 2512 | -98 | 5-9 | 6-9 | 3W |
11
Sparks
|
10 | 17 | 2404 | 2540 | -136 | 5-9 | 5-8 | 6L |
12
Tempo
|
10 | 18 | 2466 | 2620 | -154 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 5L |
13
Sky
|
10 | 18 | 2457 | 2511 | -54 | 6-7 | 4-11 | 1W |
14
Sun
|
7 | 22 | 2332 | 2537 | -205 | 4-10 | 3-12 | 4L |
15
Storm
|
6 | 24 | 2470 | 2629 | -159 | 4-11 | 2-13 | 7L |
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