Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks & Odds | 07 Aug 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun

The Phoenix Mercury face the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 19:30 on Friday, August 7.

The Sun are capable of staying close to the Mercury here, so we’ll take a chance and bet them against the spread. There’s an attractive +6.5 available which is priced at -112.

Phoenix Mercury were beaten in their previous game and this was on the road at Gateway Center Arena. Atlanta Dream claimed a 96-82 win.

Connecticut Sun were defeated in their last game. On the road, they suffered a 83-63 reverse against Dallas Wings at College Park Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury beat the Sun in their last head-to-head matchup. It was a 72-63 scoreline. The Sun have won seven of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
12  Mercury	12	20	2694	2803	-109	5-10	7-10	1L
14  Sun	7	23	2395	2620	-225	4-10	3-13	5L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Prediction & Picks

Get ready for Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun with all the betting angles covered, from an expert match prediction and correct score advice to player props and a custom bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’re confident that Sun can push for a victory in this WNBA contest and the +6.5 about them on the spread makes lots of appeal. Take -112 that the underdogs cover the line.

We only publish basketball predictions once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest WNBA form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every pick we make.

Key Mercury vs Sun stats:

• The +6.5 line has been covered by Sun in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• The +6.5 line has been covered by Sun in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -6.5 line hasn’t been covered by Mercury in 5 consecutive games.
• The -6.5 line hasn’t been covered by Mercury in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The -6.5 line hasn’t been covered by Mercury in 18 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The +6.5 line has been covered by Sun in 7 of their last 10 games against Mercury.

Sun +6.5 Probability

The odds at the top basketball sportsbooks suggest our pick has a 52.9% chance of winning. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this WNBA wager.

If you’re searching for bigger odds and feel confident that your selection will perform well, then moving the line can secure an increased potential payout.

Maximize your betting potential with the latest free bets, sign-up and welcome offers — all listed in our expert bonus guide.

Our Game Prediction

Sun +6.5 @ -112 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Aug 7, 00:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Leïla Lacan Over 4.5 Assists -152

Leïla Lacan (Sun) is available at -152 to register Over 4.5 assists. We can place a Player Assists bet with confidence, with our pick expected to cover the total.

Latest Leïla Lacan Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 12.5

-127

Under 12.5

-102

Assists

Over 4.5

-152

Under 4.5

+117

Rebounds

Over 2.5

+152

Under 2.5

-200

---

Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 Points -123

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) is available at -123 to total Under 15.5 points. It’s anticipated that she might fall short of the mark and that leads us to an Unders bet.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-105

Under 15.5

-123

Assists

Over 8.5

-100

Under 8.5

-130

Rebounds

Over 8.5

+113

Under 8.5

-147

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 86 - 84 Sun

We’re expecting a close game so it might be worth going for the Mercury to win by a 86-84 scoreline. You can get a huge price and we should hopefully get a run for our money.

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Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The Phoenix Mercury odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -250 betting favorites to land victory in this WNBA game which means a 71% chance of winning. At +198, Connecticut Sun are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

6.5 is the spread and 174.5 is the total points line. Basketball fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Total wager. Those who wager Under 174.5 can get -112.

Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on women's basketball, the top sportsbooks let you feast on a wide range of game lines and team props. The selections are practically endless, offering an impressive range of options.

Moneyline

Mercury

-250

Sun

+198

Point Spread

Mercury -6.5

-108

Sun +6.5

-112

Total Points

Under 174.5

-112

Over 174.5

-108

Kahleah Copper is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -127 to score Over 20.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -102.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 20.5

-127

Under 20.5

-102

Kelsey Plum (Mercury)

Over 17.5

-120

Under 17.5

-108

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-105

Under 15.5

-123

Leïla Lacan (Sun)

Over 12.5

-127

Under 12.5

-102

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun)

Over 12.5

-123

Under 12.5

-104

Diamond Miller (Sun)

Over 11.5

-108

Under 11.5

-120

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-100

Under 10.5

-130

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-100

Under 8.5

-130

Kelsey Plum (Mercury)

Over 4.5

-105

Under 4.5

-123

Leïla Lacan (Sun)

Over 4.5

-152

Under 4.5

+117

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+152

Under 2.5

-200

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+113

Under 8.5

-147

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun)

Over 8.5

-105

Under 8.5

-123

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 6.5

+104

Under 6.5

-135

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-156

Kelsey Plum (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+171

Under 2.5

-227

Leïla Lacan (Sun)

Over 2.5

+152

Under 2.5

-200

Diamond Miller (Sun)

Over 2.5

-167

Under 2.5

+128

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Connecticut Sun Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 178.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 179.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 174.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.90 pts and allowed 92.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 86.00 pts and allowed 93.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 169.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 163.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 174.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 174.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.60 pts and allowed 88.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 81.00 pts and allowed 82.10 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	25	7	2956	2673	283	12-5	13-2	1L
2  Aces	22	9	2846	2682	164	9-5	13-4	2W
3  Valkyries	21	9	2488	2313	175	13-4	8-5	2W
4  Dream	19	11	2686	2578	108	11-5	8-6	1W
5  Wings	19	12	2767	2649	118	9-5	10-7	1L
6  Fever	19	12	2979	2806	173	11-6	8-6	2L
7  Liberty	19	13	2883	2801	82	10-5	9-8	3W
8  Mystics	17	12	2369	2412	-43	9-6	8-6	5W
9  Sparks	12	18	2687	2818	-131	5-9	7-9	1W
10  Sky	12	19	2737	2788	-51	8-8	4-11	1W
11  Fire	12	19	2683	2845	-162	7-9	5-10	1W
12  Mercury	12	20	2694	2803	-109	5-10	7-10	1L
13  Tempo	10	21	2709	2905	-196	6-11	4-10	8L
14  Sun	7	23	2395	2620	-225	4-10	3-13	5L
15  Storm	6	27	2728	2914	-186	4-11	2-16	10L

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