Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

The Phoenix Mercury battle the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 18:00 on Saturday, July 11.

We’ve lined up a prediction which requires the Mercury to keep close to the Aces. We think that the betting line of +9.5 can be covered and you can secure -110.

Phoenix Mercury lost their previous game, being beaten at home to Indiana Fever 92-89.

Las Vegas Aces triumphed in their last game. It was on the road where Portland Fire were beaten 88-80 at Moda Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last matchup between the Aces and the Mercury saw the former win. It was a 86-76 scoreline. The Aces have won eight of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Aces	16	6	1977	1895	82	6-4	10-2	1W
12  Mercury	8	15	1924	1972	-48	3-8	5-7	2L

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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Game Prediction

If you agree that Mercury can go fairly close in this WNBA showdown, then bet the underdogs against the spread here. The +9.5 makes plenty of appeal at odds of -110.

The WNBA experts at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any basketball predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.

Key Mercury vs Aces stats:

• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 8 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 3 consecutive games on the road.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 5 consecutive games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 13 of their last 20 games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 6 of their last 10 games against Mercury.

Mercury +9.5 Probability

If you go by the top basketball sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.4% chance of delivering a return. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

There are bigger odds available to bettors who are prepared to move the line. By taking on more risk, you are able to get more juice from your selections as a result.

Get the most from your next wager. Check our expert guide filled with the best free bets and top bonus offers.

Our Game Prediction

Mercury +9.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 10, 22:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points -112

A'ja Wilson (Aces) can be backed to score Over 24.5 points at -112. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest A'ja Wilson Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-115

Assists

Over 2.5

-159

Under 2.5

+122

Rebounds

Over 9.5

-108

Under 9.5

-120

---

Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 Points -123

Chelsea Gray (Aces) can be wagered to record Under 12.5 points at -123. According to our experts, the Players Points total looks too high and we think she will fall short.

Latest Chelsea Gray Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 12.5

-105

Under 12.5

-123

Assists

Over 7.5

-105

Under 7.5

-123

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-130

Under 3.5

+101

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 85 - 92 Aces

Rather than betting on the Aces to win, there’s the alternative to try your luck when it comes to the correct score lines. Take a chance on a 92-85 victory in their favor.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks are taking no chances with their Moneyline odds of -476 about Las Vegas Aces which reflects they have a 83% chance of winning this WNBA game. Phoenix Mercury are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +350.

The spread is currently 9.5, with the total points line at 172.5. Having a bet on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball wagers. If you want to wager Over 172.5, there are odds of -108.

Women's hoops bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Mercury

+350

Aces

-476

Point Spread

Mercury +9.5

-110

Aces -9.5

-110

Total Points

Under 172.5

-112

Over 172.5

-108

A'ja Wilson is the favorite to hit the most buckets. You can back -112 that she gets Over 24.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -115.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-115

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 20.5

-108

Under 20.5

-120

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 17.5

-103

Under 17.5

-125

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-102

Under 14.5

-127

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 12.5

-105

Under 12.5

-123

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 11.5

-112

Under 11.5

-115

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

+102

Under 8.5

-132

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 7.5

-105

Under 7.5

-123

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 6.5

-127

Under 6.5

-102

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 2.5

-159

Under 2.5

+122

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+171

Under 2.5

-227

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 9.5

-108

Under 9.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-119

Under 6.5

-109

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 6.5

+122

Under 6.5

-159

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 4.5

-109

Under 4.5

-119

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-133

Under 3.5

+103

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

-130

Under 3.5

+101

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +9.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -9.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 162.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 172.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 172.5 on the Road: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.30 pts and allowed 86.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 80.00 pts and allowed 82.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 176.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 172.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 172.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.50 pts and allowed 86.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 87.90 pts and allowed 88.50 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Aces	16	6	1977	1895	82	6-4	10-2	1W
2  Lynx	16	6	1980	1776	204	6-4	10-2	1W
3  Valkyries	17	7	1967	1828	139	10-3	7-4	7W
4  Wings	15	8	2051	1958	93	6-3	9-5	4W
5  Liberty	13	9	1932	1844	88	7-5	6-4	1L
6  Dream	13	9	1926	1840	86	7-3	6-6	1W
7  Fever	13	9	2053	1973	80	8-4	5-5	1W
8  Mystics	10	10	1622	1690	-68	4-5	6-5	1L
9  Sparks	9	11	1768	1871	-103	4-7	5-4	1W
10  Fire	9	13	1850	2006	-156	6-6	3-7	1L
11  Tempo	9	13	1971	2026	-55	5-7	4-6	4L
12  Mercury	8	15	1924	1972	-48	3-8	5-7	2L
13  Sky	7	14	1809	1865	-56	3-7	4-7	1W
14  Storm	6	18	1921	2044	-123	4-8	2-10	1L
15  Sun	5	18	1823	1986	-163	3-10	2-8	2L

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