Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Jul 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

The Phoenix Mercury battle the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 18:00 on Saturday, July 11.

We’ve lined up a prediction which requires the Mercury to keep close to the Aces. We think that the betting line of +9.5 can be covered and you can secure -110.

Phoenix Mercury lost their previous game, being beaten at home to Indiana Fever 92-89.

Las Vegas Aces triumphed in their last game. It was on the road where Portland Fire were beaten 88-80 at Moda Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last matchup between the Aces and the Mercury saw the former win. It was a 86-76 scoreline. The Aces have won eight of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
3  Aces	31	13	4025	3776	249	15-7	16-6	7W
10  Mercury	16	28	3712	3854	-142	7-15	9-13	1L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Game Prediction

If you agree that Mercury can go fairly close in this WNBA showdown, then bet the underdogs against the spread here. The +9.5 makes plenty of appeal at odds of -110.

The WNBA experts at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any basketball predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.

Key Mercury vs Aces stats:

• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 8 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +9.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 3 consecutive games on the road.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 5 consecutive games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 13 of their last 20 games.
• The -9.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 6 of their last 10 games against Mercury.

Merc +9.5 Probability

If you go by the top basketball sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.4% chance of delivering a return. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

There are bigger odds available to bettors who are prepared to move the line. By taking on more risk, you are able to get more juice from your selections as a result.

Get the most from your next wager. Check our expert guide filled with the best free bets and top bonus offers.

Our Game Prediction

Mercury +9.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jul 10, 22:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points -112

A'ja Wilson (Aces) can be backed to score Over 24.5 points at -112. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest A'ja Wilson Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 24.5

-130

Under 24.5

-100

Assists

Over 3.5

+132

Under 3.5

-172

Rebounds

Over 9.5

-110

Under 9.5

-118

---

Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 Points -123

Chelsea Gray (Aces) can be wagered to record Under 12.5 points at -123. According to our experts, the Players Points total looks too high and we think she will fall short.

Latest Chelsea Gray Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 12.5

+104

Under 12.5

-135

Assists

Over 7.5

+115

Under 7.5

-149

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+105

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 85 - 92 Aces

Rather than betting on the Aces to win, there’s the alternative to try your luck when it comes to the correct score lines. Take a chance on a 92-85 victory in their favor.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks are taking no chances with their Moneyline odds of -323 about Las Vegas Aces which reflects they have a 76% chance of winning this WNBA game. Phoenix Mercury are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +245.

The spread is currently 7.5, with the total points line at 168.5. Having a bet on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball wagers. If you want to wager Over 168.5, there are odds of -110.

Women's hoops bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Mercury

+245

Aces

-323

Point Spread

Mercury +7.5

-106

Aces -7.5

-114

Total Points

Under 168.5

-110

Over 168.5

-110

A'ja Wilson is the favorite to hit the most buckets. You can back -130 that she gets Over 24.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -100.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 24.5

-130

Under 24.5

-100

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 20.5

-109

Under 20.5

-119

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 16.5

-127

Under 16.5

-102

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

+103

Under 14.5

-133

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 12.5

+104

Under 12.5

-135

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 11.5

-105

Under 11.5

-123

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 10.5

-115

Under 10.5

-112

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-128

Under 9.5

-101

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 8.5

-149

Under 8.5

+115

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-101

Under 8.5

-128

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 7.5

+115

Under 7.5

-149

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 6.5

-143

Under 6.5

+110

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 3.5

+132

Under 3.5

-172

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

+134

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 9.5

-110

Under 9.5

-118

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-128

Under 6.5

-101

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 6.5

+118

Under 6.5

-154

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 6.5

+117

Under 6.5

-152

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 4.5

-110

Under 4.5

-118

Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury)

Over 4.5

+104

Under 4.5

-135

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-147

Under 3.5

+113

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+105

An increasing number of basketball bettors are now enjoying micro betting and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +9.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -9.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 162.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 172.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 172.5 on the Road: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.30 pts and allowed 86.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 80.00 pts and allowed 82.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 176.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 172.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 172.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.50 pts and allowed 86.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 87.90 pts and allowed 88.50 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	33	11	3997	3681	316	15-7	18-4	1W
2  Valkyries	32	12	3615	3305	310	17-5	15-7	1W
3  Aces	31	13	4025	3776	249	15-7	16-6	7W
4  Dream	30	14	4019	3717	302	15-7	15-7	5W
5  Mystics	28	16	3696	3640	56	15-7	13-9	4W
6  Fever	28	16	4222	3979	243	15-7	13-9	1L
7  Wings	27	17	3933	3751	182	16-6	11-11	1W
8  Liberty	26	18	3941	3802	139	14-8	12-10	2L
9  Fire	17	27	3794	4005	-211	9-13	8-14	1W
10  Mercury	16	28	3712	3854	-142	7-15	9-13	1L
11  Sky	16	28	3818	3989	-171	11-11	5-17	1L
12  Sparks	16	28	3830	4018	-188	8-14	8-14	2L
13  Tempo	11	33	3769	4152	-383	7-15	4-18	8L
14  Sun	11	33	3470	3875	-405	8-14	3-19	1W
15  Storm	8	36	3616	3913	-297	6-16	2-20	5L

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