Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 May 2026

WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty

The Phoenix Mercury go up against the New York Liberty at Barclays Center, with tip-off scheduled for 19:00 on Wednesday, May 27.

The best wager could involve backing the Mercury against the spread. There’s an attractive +5.5 available at -112 that they cover the line against the Liberty and that has to be our prediction.

Phoenix Mercury were beaten in their previous game and this was on the road at Gateway Center Arena. Atlanta Dream claimed a 82-80 win.

New York Liberty lost their last game, being beaten at home to Portland Fire 81-74 at Barclays Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury have won the last two meetings against the Liberty. They triumphed 86-60 at Barclays Center and then 79-73 at Mortgage Matchup Center. It’s been six Mercury wins in the past 10 games between these teams.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
7  Liberty	19	13	2883	2801	82	10-5	9-8	3W
11  Mercury	12	20	2694	2803	-109	5-10	7-10	1L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks

Explore our top Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty betting tips, including a match prediction, correct score forecast, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

With Mercury capable of remaining close to the favorites, backing them on the spread could be the best way forward. -112 is available that the +5.5 is covered in this WNBA contest.

We closely track recent form and look for patterns that may impact the outcome. The same goes for injuries to key players. When combined with the most relevant WNBA stats, this gives us a strong foundation for accurate basketball predictions.

Key Mercury vs Liberty stats:

• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 12 of their last 20 games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Liberty in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Liberty in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Liberty in 3 consecutive games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Liberty in 2 consecutive games against Mercury.

Mercury +5.5 Probability

If you go by the top basketball sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.9% chance of delivering a return. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

Looking for more juice from your selection? By moving the betting line, you are able to get bigger odds although you will need to take a riskier wager.

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Our Game Prediction

Mercury +5.5 @ -112 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 26, 23:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Rebounds -108

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be wagered to secure Over 8.5 rebounds at -108. In our opinion, there is value when it comes to her covering a generous Player Rebounds line.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

-119

Under 16.5

-112

Assists

Over 7.5

-143

Under 7.5

+104

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-103

Under 8.5

-132

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Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 Assists -127

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) is available at -127 to record Over 5.5 assists. With some confidence, we can shoot for her to cover the generous Player Assists total.

Latest Sabrina Ionescu Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

-116

Under 16.5

-114

Assists

Over 5.5

-145

Under 5.5

+106

Rebounds

Over 4.5

+107

Under 4.5

-145

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 82 - 84 Liberty

There’s every chance that this is going to be a close contest and we’ll have a play on the Liberty enjoying a 84-82 winning scoreline. Hopefully this can go close.

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Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

New York Liberty have the shortest price to win this WNBA game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 65% probability due to their -189 Moneyline betting odds. The market suggests that Phoenix Mercury are least likely to win at +152.

The current spread is 4.5 and total points is 169.5. Having a bet on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball wagers. Those who wager Under 169.5 can get -110.

Whether you are wagering in-game or pre-game, the best basketball sportsbooks let you feast on a wide range of game lines and team props. The selections are practically endless, and it’s great to have lots of options.

Moneyline

Mercury

+152

Liberty

-189

Point Spread

Mercury +4.5

-108

Liberty -4.5

-112

Total Points

Under 169.5

-110

Over 169.5

-110

Breanna Stewart is the favorite to hit the most buckets. You can back -105 that she gets Over 19.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -127.

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 19.5

-105

Under 19.5

-127

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 19.5

-104

Under 19.5

-128

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-119

Under 16.5

-112

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 16.5

-116

Under 16.5

-114

Satou Sabally (Liberty)

Over 13.5

-104

Under 13.5

-127

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 12.5

-120

Under 12.5

-109

Jovana Nogic (Mercury)

Over 11.5

-120

Under 11.5

-111

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-127

Under 8.5

-104

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-143

Under 7.5

+104

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 5.5

-145

Under 5.5

+106

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 2.5

-115

Under 2.5

-118

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+133

Under 2.5

-182

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 2.5

+116

Under 2.5

-159

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 8.5

-106

Under 8.5

-128

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-103

Under 8.5

-132

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 8.5

+107

Under 8.5

-147

Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-147

Under 7.5

+108

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 4.5

+107

Under 4.5

-145

Satou Sabally (Liberty)

Over 4.5

-159

Under 4.5

+116

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-132

Under 2.5

-104

Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on basketball. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen. Next Field Goal, where you select if the shot will be a two or three-pointer are among the options.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

New York Liberty Stats

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 173.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 164.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 169.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 169.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.90 pts and allowed 88.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 81.60 pts and allowed 82.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 168.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 159.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 169.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 169.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 83.70 pts and allowed 84.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 80.00 pts and allowed 79.30 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	25	6	2874	2584	290	12-4	13-2	10W
2  Aces	21	9	2760	2598	162	9-5	12-4	1W
3  Valkyries	21	9	2488	2313	175	13-4	8-5	2W
4  Dream	19	11	2686	2578	108	11-5	8-6	1W
5  Fever	19	11	2895	2720	175	11-5	8-6	1L
6  Wings	19	12	2767	2649	118	9-5	10-7	1L
7  Liberty	19	13	2883	2801	82	10-5	9-8	3W
8  Mystics	17	12	2369	2412	-43	9-6	8-6	5W
9  Sky	12	19	2737	2788	-51	8-8	4-11	1W
10  Sparks	11	18	2598	2736	-138	5-9	6-9	1L
11  Mercury	12	20	2694	2803	-109	5-10	7-10	1L
12  Fire	11	19	2586	2762	-176	6-9	5-10	5L
13  Tempo	10	20	2626	2808	-182	6-11	4-9	7L
14  Sun	7	23	2395	2620	-225	4-10	3-13	5L
15  Storm	6	27	2728	2914	-186	4-11	2-16	10L

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