Italy vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 25 Sep 2026

Italy vs Belgium Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ -159

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We’re more than happy to snap up the -159 when it comes to Italy and Belgium finding the net. The numbers suggest that the BTTS Yes outcome could deliver a return.

Check out the complete Italy vs Belgium betting breakdown below, highlighting the logic behind our main match prediction, as well as our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

Italy vs Belgium Preview

Italy square off against Belgium at Stadio Olimpico, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Friday 25 September.

Italy were defeated in their last game. Away from home, they suffered a World Cup qualifying penalty shootout loss (1-1 AET) against Bosnia-Herzegovina at Bilino Polje Stadium. Gli Azzurri enjoyed just 39% possession and had three shots on target, with Moise Kean being the goalscorer.

Belgium lost in their previous game. Spain won 2-1 at SoFi Stadium in the World Cup. Mark van Bommel's men had just 32% possession and totalled two shots on goal, while Charles De Ketelaere was on the scoresheet.

H2H: Italy 1-0 Winners in Previous Head-to-Head

Italy have not lost any of the past four games against Belgium. In their last encounter, Italy claimed a 1-0 away win at Koning Boudewijnstadion. The past 4 H2H matches have included three Italy wins along with a single draw.

Nations League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Belgium	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
3	Italy	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

View Full Table

7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 2.5 goals from 19.5 attempts and 6.4 shots on goal. Italy have had 58.1% possession, 554.4 passes and 7.2 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 1.7 goals from 10.4 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 3.8 corners.

Top scorer Moise Kean has found the net 6 times, Mateo Retegui 5, with Francesco Pio Esposito and Giacomo Raspadori both scoring 3. Federico Dimarco and Mateo Retegui have racked up the most assists with 4, while goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has 4 clean sheets.

Belgium have 5 victories, 1 defeat and 4 draws, averaging 16.7 attempts, 6.3 shots on goal and 2.6 goals. The Red Devils average 57.3% possession, 6.9 corners awarded and 3.7 corners against them, while 1.0 goals have been conceded from 3.0 shots on goal and 8.3 attempts.

Charles De Ketelaere has scored 5 goals, followed by Romelu Lukaku, Hans Vanaken, Kevin De Bruyne and Leandro Trossard on 3. Timothy Castagne has been chief assist maker with 3, while Thibaut Courtois and Senne Lammens have recorded 3 clean sheets between them in the last 10 games.

Main Match Prediction

There could be goals from both teams which leads us to a confident BTTS Yes wager for this Nations League clash. We’re especially taken by the -159 available when it comes to the teams scoring.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (competitive matches):

• BTTS Yes has been covered in 13 of the last 20 Italy games at home.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Italy games at home.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 5 straight Belgium games on the road.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Belgium games on the road.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 12 of the last 20 Belgium games.

We always have a keen eye on team news, while our football experts have their finger on the pulse by knowing the latest form. You will also find a compendium of stats which provide some valuable pointers ahead of the Nations League action.

According to the top betting sites, our pick has a 61.3% chance of landing a return. However, our tipsters in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 65-70%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

If you are looking for more juice, BTTS Yes can be combined with Over 2.5 Goals. A wager on the Total Goals & Both Teams to Score market gives you two similar picks at slightly bigger odds.

Before you make your picks, explore our detailed betting guide filled with free bets, the latest promo codes and welcome bonuses.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ -159 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 23, 20:57). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Italy 2 - 1 Belgium

Italy can be backed at +575 to triumph by a 2-1 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Charles De Ketelaere Over 0.5 Shots On Target -128

Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) has bagged a minimum of one shot on goal in three consecutive games on the road. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Shots on Target and you can get -128 that he goes over the line.

Latest Charles De Ketelaere Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+270

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-

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Francesco Pio Esposito to Score +200

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy) has scored three goals in his past six matches. Based on the stats, we think that odds of +200 are really appealing when it comes to betting on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Francesco Pio Esposito Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+200

First

+525

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Italy To Have Most Corners -139

In their past five home games, Italy have had the most corners. Italy should be capable of winning this Corner Match Bet and the odds of -139 look value.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Italy

Total

11.00 7.20 3.80

Home

11.10 6.60 4.50

Away

9.20 4.90 4.30

Belgium

Total

10.60 6.90 3.70

Home

10.60 8.10 2.50

Away

10.50 7.20 3.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-111

Under 9.5

-130

Italy Corners

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

-100

Belgium Corners

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-164

Most Corners

1

-141

X

+575

2

+128

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Italy vs Belgium Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The Italy betting odds are +110 which means that they’re favourites to land victory in this Nations League encounter. It’s also suggested by the bookies that this team have a 48% chance of winning. Belgium are regarded as the least likely winner at +225.

Italy -0.25 on the Asian Handicap can be backed at -132. It means your stake is split between 0 and -0.5, with a full payout if they beat Belgium. Half your stake is refunded if we see a draw.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. A different approach is a Both Teams to Score bet and Yes has been priced at -159.

The top football betting sites have excellent coverage when it comes to all Nations League matches. That means hundreds of markets from which to choose and something to suit everyone.

Full-Time Result

1

+110

X

+250

2

+225

Half-Time Result

1

+163

X

+130

2

+260

Double Chance

1X

-357

12

-400

X2

-154

Draw No Bet

1

-192

2

+132

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-132

2 Hcp +0.25

-110

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-108

Over 2.5

-133

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-159

No

+110

There’s the chance to back Moise Kean at +400 to be the First Goalscorer, with the favourite on this market available at similar odds to find the net last.

Moise Kean (Italy)

First

+400

Anytime

+155

Francesco Camarda (Italy)

First

+450

Anytime

+170

Gianluca Scamacca (Italy)

First

+475

Anytime

+175

Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)

First

+525

Anytime

+190

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy)

First

+525

Anytime

+200

Sebastiano Esposito (Italy)

First

+600

Anytime

+220

Jeff Ekhator (Italy)

First

+600

Anytime

+230

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

First

+600

Anytime

+230

Loïs Openda (Belgium)

First

+650

Anytime

+240

Daniel Maldini (Italy)

First

+650

Anytime

+250

Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium)

First

+700

Anytime

+270

Matias Fernandez-Pardo (Belgium)

First

+700

Anytime

+270

Mika Godts (Belgium)

First

+750

Anytime

+280

Leandro Trossard (Belgium)

First

+750

Anytime

+290

Antonio Vergara (Italy)

First

+850

Anytime

+310

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

First

+900

Anytime

+350

Niccolò Pisilli (Italy)

First

+900

Anytime

+350

Rolando Mandragora (Italy)

First

+900

Anytime

+350

Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium)

First

+950

Anytime

+350

Malick Fofana (Belgium)

First

+950

Anytime

+350

Nicolo Cambiaghi (Italy)

First

+950

Anytime

+360

Cher Ndour (Italy)

First

+900

Anytime

+370

Jérémy Doku (Belgium)

First

+1000

Anytime

+370

Seydou Fini (Italy)

First

+950

Anytime

+380

Dodi Lukébakio (Belgium)

First

+1000

Anytime

+400

Moise Kean (Italy)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Gianluca Scamacca (Italy)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

-

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

-

Sebastiano Esposito (Italy)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-

Jeff Ekhator (Italy)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-

Loïs Openda (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-

Daniel Maldini (Italy)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-

Matias Fernandez-Pardo (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-

Mika Godts (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-

Leandro Trossard (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-115

Under 0.5

-

Antonio Vergara (Italy)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Jérémy Doku (Belgium)

Over 0.5

+107

Under 0.5

-

Rolando Mandragora (Italy)

Over 0.5

+108

Under 0.5

-

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-

Nicolo Cambiaghi (Italy)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Malick Fofana (Belgium)

Over 0.5

+118

Under 0.5

-

Niccolò Pisilli (Italy)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-

Cher Ndour (Italy)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-

Seydou Fini (Italy)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-

Dodi Lukébakio (Belgium)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-

Francesco Camarda (Italy)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Italy Stats

Belgium Stats

Full-Time Result

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the previous 10 matches
• 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 5 wins, 1 defeat and 4 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 2.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 4.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.90 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 7.20 corners awarded and 3.80 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.60 corners awarded and 4.50 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 11.00 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 11.10 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 6.90 corners awarded and 3.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 7.20 corners awarded and 3.30 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 10.60 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 10.50 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 58.10% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 56.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 57.30% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 57.40% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 away matches

Italy vs Belgium Lineups & Team News

Always review the Italy vs Belgium team news before locking in your bets. Receive the predicted and confirmed Nations League lineups from us, plus the most recent injury updates.

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