Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 26 Mar 2026

World Cup Play-Off Betting Preview: Italy vs Northern Ireland

Italy take on Northern Ireland in this World Cup play-off semi-final at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Thursday 26 March.

Italy and Northern Ireland could score a few goals between them and we’re keen to back the -139 when it comes to Over 2.5. This can be wagered with confidence on the Total Goals market and we’re expecting a payout.

Italy qualified for this play-off semi-final by finishing second in Group I, six points behind Norway and ahead of Israel, Estonia and Moldova.

Gennaro Gattuso's team come into this match after a 4-1 World Cup qualifying home defeat to group winners Norway at the San Siro. Italy enjoyed 52% possession and had four shots on target, with Francesco Pio Esposito getting the goal.

Northern Ireland, who finished third in Group A behind Germany and Slovakia, qualified for the play-off based on their UEFA Nations League performances.

The Green and White Army won last time out, beating Luxembourg 1-0 at home in a World Cup qualifier. Northern Ireland had 41% possession and totalled three shots on goal, with Jamie Donley scoring the 44th minute winner.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Northern Ireland and Italy played out a 0-0 draw when they last met, with the former hosting at Windsor Park in a World Cup qualifier in 2021.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	0	3	7	6	1	7:6	9
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21	12	9	21:12	18

View Full Table

6 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals from 6.3 shots on goal and 18.7 attempts. Italy have had 57.0% possession, 539.6 passes and 6.6 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.7 goals from 4.0 shots on goal and 9.7 attempts, while being awarded 3.9 corners.

Moise Kean leads the way with 6 goals, while Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori have scored 5 and 4 respectively. Leading assistors have been Federico Dimarco and Mateo Retegui with 4, while goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has 3 clean sheets.

Northern Ireland have 5 victories, 3 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.6 goals from 3.8 shots on goal and 8.8 attempts. There’s been an average of 44.1% possession, 5.3 corners awarded and 2.8 corners against, while Michael O'Neill's side have conceded 0.8 goals from 2.3 shots on goal and 6.4 attempts.

Isaac Price is top of the team’s scoring charts with 5, while Jamie Donley, Trai Hume, Jamie Reid and Shea Charles have 1. Shea Charles is top assists provider with 3, while Bailey Peacock-Farrell and Conor Hazard have kept 3 clean sheets between them in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Italy confirmed lineup (3-5-2): Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK), Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Matteo Politano, Nicolo Barella, Manuel Locatelli, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco, Moise Kean, Mateo Retegui.

Northern Ireland confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Pierce Charles (GK), Trai Hume, Paddy McNair, Ruairi McConville, Terry Devlin, Shea Charles, Ethan Galbraith, Brodie Spencer, Justin Devenny, Isaac Price, Jamie Donley.

Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction & Betting Tips

From our key match prediction to corners advice, correct score pick, top player prop insights and a builder tailored for value — our Italy vs Northern Ireland betting tips covers it all.

Match Prediction

There’s a reasonable prospect that three goals or more will be scored during this World Cup qualifying encounter. On this basis, we’ll side with Over 2.5 Goals and the price of -139 stands out on the coupon.

The World Cup qualifying tipsters at Sportsgambler.com always have a strong handle on team news. A form guide is also utilised for our betting verdict along with checking out the numbers that are going to help inform our final football picks.

Key Italy vs Northern Ireland stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 Italy games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Italy games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Italy games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Northern Ireland games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 17 Northern Ireland games on the road.

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 58.1% chance of winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 65-70%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

An Over 2.5 Goals selection can be included in a Bet Builder with a number of other picks. There’s the chance to get a larger price although there’s clearly more risk involved.

Explore the latest free bet promotions and welcome bonuses in our expert betting guide, updated with the best offers.

Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -139 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 24, 20:57). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Italy 2 - 1 Northern Ireland

A potentially entertaining bet is going for Gli Azzurri to win by a 2-1 scoreline. At odds of +700, there’s the chance to get a handsome return should this wager win.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Mateo Retegui Over 4.5 Shots -123

Mateo Retegui (Italy) has had an average of 4.75 shots in his past four games on home soil. We’re anticipating that he is able to perform well and cover the Player Shots line, with odds of -123 currently available.

Latest Mateo Retegui Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

-125

First

+240

Shots

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-

---

Giacomo Raspadori to Score +145

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy) has scored three goals in his past seven matches. The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +145.

Latest Giacomo Raspadori Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+150

First

+390

Shots

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Italy Under 6.5 Corners -147

Italy have had under 6.5 corners in two consecutive home games, with Northern Ireland conceding less than 6.5 corners in their past ten matches. There is juice when it comes to going under the Italy Team Corners line and this is priced at -147.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Italy

Total

10.50 6.60 3.90

Home

10.50 6.10 4.40

Away

9.10 5.60 3.50

Northern Ireland

Total

8.10 5.30 2.80

Home

9.40 5.80 3.60

Away

7.10 3.90 3.20

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-125

Italy Corners

Over 6.5

-108

Under 6.5

-132

Northern Ireland Corners

Over 2.5

-133

Under 2.5

-105

Most Corners

1

-476

X

+850

2

+410

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Italy vs Northern Ireland Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

According to the betting odds, Italy are major -476 favourites with the bookies to triumph and that means a 83% chance of winning this World Cup qualifying clash. Northern Ireland are operating at larger odds than the opposition and the underdogs can be wagered at +1500.

Italy can be backed at -114 on the -1.75 Asian Handicap. There’s a payout if they claim a victory by three or more against Northern Ireland, with a half stake payout and half stake refund if the favourites oblige by two.

The Over 2.5 pick is trading as the favourite when it comes to betting on Total Goals. An alternative angle is a BTTS bet and Both Teams to Score No is available at -208.

It’s great that you can tap into hundreds of markets for every World Cup qualifying match. Each of our recommended football betting sites provide exciting pre-match and In-Play betting options.

Full-Time Result

1

-476

X

+525

2

+1500

Half-Time Result

1

-156

X

+163

2

+950

Double Chance

1X

-10000

12

-909

X2

+320

Draw No Bet

1

-5000

2

+850

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.75

-114

2 Hcp +1.75

-109

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+106

Over 2.5

-137

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+150

No

-208

Mateo Retegui is available at -125 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer, with the favourite priced at odds of +240 to find the net first.

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

First

-125

Anytime

+240

Moise Kean (Italy)

First

+115

Anytime

+330

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

First

+150

Anytime

+390

Matteo Politano (Italy)

First

+210

Anytime

+550

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

First

+330

Anytime

+900

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

First

+380

Anytime

+1000

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Jamie Reid (Northern Ireland)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

First

+550

Anytime

+1400

Isaac Price (Northern Ireland)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

First

+600

Anytime

+1500

Jamie Donley (Northern Ireland)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Alessandro Buongiorno (Italy)

First

+700

Anytime

+1800

Alessandro Bastoni (Italy)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Ethan Galbraith (Northern Ireland)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-

Moise Kean (Italy)

Over 3.5

+102

Under 3.5

-

Matteo Politano (Italy)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

Over 1.5

+112

Under 1.5

-

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Jamie Reid (Northern Ireland)

Over 1.5

-115

Under 1.5

-

Isaac Price (Northern Ireland)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

Jamie Donley (Northern Ireland)

Over 1.5

+128

Under 1.5

-

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

-

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Alessandro Bastoni (Italy)

Over 0.5

-106

Under 0.5

-

Alessandro Buongiorno (Italy)

Over 0.5

+107

Under 0.5

-

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

-

Ethan Galbraith (Northern Ireland)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

-

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Italy Stats

Northern Ireland Stats

Full-Time Result

• 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 1 win, 7 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 2.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 4.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 4.10 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 9 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 2.40 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 6.60 corners awarded and 3.90 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 4.40 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 10.50 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 10.50 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 5.30 corners awarded and 2.80 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 3.90 corners awarded and 3.20 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 8.10 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 7.10 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 57.00% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 57.10% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 44.10% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 44.20% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 3 of the last 10 away matches

Italy vs Northern Ireland Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Italy vs Northern Ireland team news before you bet. Stay in the know with the confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and up-to-date injury news.

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