PSG vs Chelsea Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 Mar 2026

Champions League Betting Preview: PSG vs Chelsea

Defending UEFA Champions League champions and French Ligue 1 giants PSG host last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup winners Chelsea in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie at Parc des Princes, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Wednesday 11 March.

Despite being a first-leg clash, there could be plenty of goals between PSG and Chelsea, which leads us to back Over 2.5.

The latest goal and xG statistics heavily favour an Over 2.5 outcome and when the teams last met the match also went over this line. There’s a price of -161 available in the Total Goals market and we’re confident this wager can deliver a return.

Paris Saint-Germain lost their last game, suffering a 3-1 Ligue 1 home defeat to Monaco in Le Classique at Parc des Princes. Luis Enrique's team had 72% of possession and managed five shots on target, with Bradley Barcola registering the goal.

Chelsea won their previous game 4-2 in extra-time (2-2 after 90 mins). This was a FA Cup away victory at The Racecourse against Wrexham. The Blues racked up seven shots on goal and enjoyed 68% possession, with Arthur Okonkwo (own goal), Josh Acheampong, Alejandro Garnacho and Joao Pedro on the scoresheet.

In their most recent Champions League outings, PSG drew 2-2 at home to Monaco in the second leg of their play-off tie (5-4 on aggregate), while Chelsea won 3-2 away to Napoli in the league phase.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The sides last met in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final, with Chelsea running out 3-0 winners. PSG enjoyed 62% possession, while the shots-on-target count finished 5-5. Cole Palmer scored twice for the Premier League side, with Joao Pedro also getting on the scoresheet.

Champions League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
6	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	17	10	7	17:10	16
11	PSG	8	4	2	2	21	11	10	21:11	14

View Full Table

6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws, averaging 2.0 goals from 20.7 attempts and 6.9 shots on goal. PSG have had 67.5% possession, 654.9 passes and 6.2 corners per match. On average, Les Parisiens have conceded 1.2 goals from 8.9 attempts and 3.1 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 2.7 corners.

Top goalscorer is Bradley Barcola on 4 goals, while Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele have both bagged 3. Leading assistor is Warren Zaire-Emery with 3, while goalkeepers Matvey Safonov and Lucas Chevalier have collectively recorded 4 clean sheets.

Chelsea have 7 victories, 1 defeat and 2 draws, with an average of 2.3 goals from 4.8 shots on goal and 13.2 attempts. Liam Rosenior's men have averaged 60.9% possession, 584.5 passes, 6.8 corners awarded and 3.9 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.2 goals from 4.3 shots on goal and 10.1 attempts.

The top scorers have been Joao Pedro with 10, Cole Palmer on 6 and Enzo Fernandez 3. Cole Palmer has had 3 assists, with Robert Sanchez notching one clean sheet in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

PSG confirmed lineup (4-3-3): Matvey Safonov (GK), Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves, Desire Doue, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola.

Chelsea confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Filip Joergensen (GK), Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James, Moises Caicedo, Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto, Joao Pedro.

PSG vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve got your PSG vs Chelsea bets covered, including our expert match prediction, correct score tip, corners outlook, must-see player props and a tailored bet builder built for value.

Match Prediction

The odds of -161 look too big to resist when it comes to wagering Over 2.5 Goals. We are confident of a return in this Champions League game and this provides us with a nice betting angle.

The team at Sportsgambler.com are right across the latest Champions League injury news and the form guide also informs our football predictions. This data is combined with the latest stats.

Key PSG vs Chelsea Champions League & league stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 4 PSG games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 PSG games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 PSG games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 6 Chelsea games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Chelsea games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Chelsea games on the road.

The top betting apps make it a 61.7% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our experts think that the probability is close to 70% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

There are plenty of wagering options, with the Both Teams to Score market presenting bettors with a BTTS Yes pick. It’s a straightforward wager where you need a goal from each side.

Don’t miss out. Explore our guide for the latest welcome bonuses and free bet offers with fresh betting promo codes.

Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -161 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 9, 21:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

PSG 2 - 1 Chelsea

A 2-1 win in favor of Les Parisiens is available at odds of +700. Take a chance on the correct score and get rewarded for predicting the right scoreline.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nuno Mendes Over 1.5 Shots -147

Nuno Mendes (PSG) has totalled over 1.5 shots in three straight matches on home soil. We think this could be a decisive stat and we’ll bet on him to cover the Player Shots line which is on offer at odds of -147.

Latest Nuno Mendes Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+330

First

+1000

Shots

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-

---

Bradley Barcola to Score +200

Bradley Barcola (PSG) has found the net in his past two games. This data directs us to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds of +200.

Latest Bradley Barcola Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+205

First

+600

Shots

Over 2.5

-109

Under 2.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Chelsea Over 3.5 Corners -119

Chelsea have covered the 3.5 corners line in six consecutive matches. We’re anticipating that there will be plenty of Chelsea corners and that the Team Corners line will be covered, with odds of -119 on offer.

Champions League & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

PSG

Total

8.90 6.20 2.70

Home

8.80 5.90 2.90

Away

9.70 6.20 3.50

Chelsea

Total

10.70 6.80 3.90

Home

10.90 6.90 4.00

Away

9.20 5.00 4.20

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

+105

Under 10.5

-149

PSG Corners

Over 5.5

-118

Under 5.5

-119

Chelsea Corners

Over 4.5

+112

Under 4.5

-159

Most Corners

1

-172

X

+650

2

+170

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

PSG vs Chelsea Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 51% chance of winning according to the latest odds, Paris Saint-Germain are favourites to prosper in this Champions League encounter and they’re available at -102 with the bookies. Chelsea are the outsiders at +255 which suggests a lower likelihood of winning.

Asian Handicap betting is popular and you can wager PSG -0.5 at -103 should you want to go for the favourites, with Chelsea +0.5 available at -120 and you will also win with the latter if it’s a draw.

The expectation is that Over 2.5 Goals will be scored according to the latest odds. For those expecting both sides to find the net, Both Teams to Score Yes is available at -217.

It’s great that you can tap into hundreds of markets for every Champions League game. Each of the leading football betting sites provide exciting pre-match and In-Play betting options.

Full-Time Result

1

-102

X

+275

2

+255

Half-Time Result

1

+145

X

+148

2

+265

Double Chance

1X

-345

12

-385

X2

-128

Draw No Bet

1

-217

2

+148

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-103

2 Hcp +0.5

-120

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+150

Over 2.5

-189

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-217

No

+163

There’s the chance to back Ousmane Dembélé at +410 to be the First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and available at similar odds to find the net last instead.

Ousmane Dembélé (PSG)

First

+135

Anytime

+410

João Pedro (Chelsea)

First

+155

Anytime

+475

Gonçalo Ramos (PSG)

First

+165

Anytime

+480

Désiré Doué (PSG)

First

+170

Anytime

+525

Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

First

+200

Anytime

+600

Bradley Barcola (PSG)

First

+205

Anytime

+600

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG)

First

+210

Anytime

+600

Liam Delap (Chelsea)

First

+290

Anytime

+800

Senny Mayulu (PSG)

First

+330

Anytime

+950

Nuno Mendes (PSG)

First

+330

Anytime

+1000

Enzo Fernández (Chelsea)

First

+330

Anytime

+1000

Kang-In Lee (PSG)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Estêvão Willian Gonçalves (Chelsea)

First

+380

Anytime

+1150

Joao Neves (PSG)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Pedro Neto (Chelsea)

First

+420

Anytime

+1200

Alejandro Garnacho (Chelsea)

First

+420

Anytime

+1300

Achraf Hakimi (PSG)

First

+430

Anytime

+1300

Jamie Bynoe-Gittens (Chelsea)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Vitinha (PSG)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Andrey Nascimento dos Santos (Chelsea)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Reece James (Chelsea)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Warren Zaïre-Emery (PSG)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Ousmane Dembélé (PSG)

Over 2.5

-159

Under 2.5

-

Gonçalo Ramos (PSG)

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-

Désiré Doué (PSG)

Over 2.5

-147

Under 2.5

-

Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-

Bradley Barcola (PSG)

Over 2.5

-109

Under 2.5

-

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG)

Over 2.5

-128

Under 2.5

-

João Pedro (Chelsea)

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

Pedro Neto (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Vitinha (PSG)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Jamie Bynoe-Gittens (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Achraf Hakimi (PSG)

Over 1.5

-119

Under 1.5

-

Alejandro Garnacho (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-123

Under 1.5

-

Kang-In Lee (PSG)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-

Estêvão Willian Gonçalves (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

+114

Under 1.5

-

Enzo Fernández (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Nuno Mendes (PSG)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-

Senny Mayulu (PSG)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-

Liam Delap (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-139

Under 1.5

-

Joao Neves (PSG)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Andrey Nascimento dos Santos (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-

Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-

Reece James (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

-102

Under 0.5

-

Warren Zaïre-Emery (PSG)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-

Latest Champions League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

PSG Stats

Chelsea Stats

Full-Time Result

• 6 wins, 2 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 3.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 4.00 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 9 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.30 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 9 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 6.20 corners awarded and 2.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 5.90 corners awarded and 2.90 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 8.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.80 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 9 and least corners in 0 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 9 and least corners in 0 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 6.80 corners awarded and 3.90 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 5.00 corners awarded and 4.20 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 10.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 9.20 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 67.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 65.40% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 10 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 10 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 60.90% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 54.00% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 6 of the last 10 away matches

PSG vs Chelsea Lineups & Team News

Make sure you're up to date on the PSG vs Chelsea team news before betting. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Champions League lineups and the latest on injuries.

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