São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 03 May 2026

Série A Betting Preview: São Paulo vs Bahia

São Paulo go head-to-head with Bahia at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Sunday 3 May.

We can’t pass up the opportunity to back São Paulo considering they are +104 to record a victory over Bahia. We’ll take this Full-Time Result bet with confidence based on the available stats.

The last league game involving São Paulo saw them triumph 1-0. They made it back-to-back Série A home victories when beating Mirassol. Roger Machado's side had the majority of the ball boasting 55% possession and one shot on target, with Luciano Neves netting in the 76th minute.

On Tuesday night, São Paulo drew 0-0 when visiting Millonarios in the Copa Sudamericana.

Bahia drew their previous game which was at home. The action ended 2-2 against Santos. The Squad of Steel enjoyed 64% possession and had five shots on goal, while Luciano Juba and Willian Jose found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was São Paulo who triumphed when they last faced Bahia, a 2-0 home victory was recorded. There have been six São Paulo victories, two draws and two Bahia wins in the previous 10 H2H games.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
6	Bahia	17	7	5	5	25	23	2	25:23	26
8	São Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	3	23:20	25

View Full Table

5 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.2 goals from 3.8 shots on goal and 7.7 attempts. São Paulo have had 55.0% possession and 7.3 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 0.9 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 8.7 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 3.7 corners.

Jonathan Calleri leads the way with 4 goals, with Luciano Neves and Ferreira getting 3 apiece. Wendell and Marcos Antonio have recorded the most assists with 2 apiece.

Bahia have 5 victories, 3 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 5.2 shots on goal, 9.5 attempts and 1.4 goals. Rogerio Ceni's team average 55.3% possession, 4.8 corners taken and 5.3 corners against them, while 1.2 goals have been conceded from 9.6 attempts and 4.7 shots on goal.

Luciano Juba has top scored with 5, followed by Everaldo and Willian Jose on 3 and 2. Everton Ribeiro and Jean Lucas are the top assist makers with 2 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

São Paulo confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Rafael (GK), Lucas Ramon, Alan Franco, Sabino, Wendell, Damian Bobadilla, Danielzinho, Artur Guimaraes, Luciano Neves, Cauly Oliveira Souza, Jonathan Calleri.

Bahia confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Leo Vieira (GK), Nicolas Acevedo, David Duarte, Santiago Ramos, Luciano Juba, Erick, Jean Lucas, Cristian Olivera, Everton Ribeiro, Erick Pulga, Willian Jose.

São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tips

Your complete São Paulo vs Bahia betting guide is here, including our go-to match prediction, scoreline call, corners betting pick, standout prop selections and a customized bet builder.

Match Prediction

Our opinion is that São Paulo will prove too strong for their opponents and we’ll therefore take the +104 for this Série A game. This bet really stands out when it comes to securing value.

Our football experts are keen to follow the latest form and understand any patterns that emerge. The same applies to injuries that could affect key players. Combined with the best Série A stats, there is plenty of information to make a verdict.

Key São Paulo vs Bahia league stats:

• São Paulo have won 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• São Paulo have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• São Paulo have won 2 consecutive games at home.
• São Paulo have won 6 of their last 10 games against Bahia.

The best football bookies are estimating that there is a 49% likelihood of this pick landing a return. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be somewhere between 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

You can choose an alternative if you want bigger odds about a win for São Paulo. The Double Result market allows you to wager on them to lead at the halfway stage too.

Claim bonuses and free bets before placing a wager. Our in-depth guide shows you the best current betting offers.

Our Match Prediction

São Paulo To Win @ +104 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 1, 21:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

São Paulo 2 - 1 Bahia

One bet that has caught our eye is São Paulo to claim a 2-1 correct score win. This selection is available at +600 meaning that a winning selection will yield a nice return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jonathan Calleri to Score +180

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo) has racked up three goals in his past five Série A games on home soil. The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +180.

Latest Jonathan Calleri Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+160

First

+390

Shots

Over 3.5

+123

Under 3.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 Corners -125

The 9.5 Total Corners line has been covered in four consecutive São Paulo home games, with the last ten Bahia away matches averaging 11.20 corners. We think that there’s a strong case for this outcome and we’ll bet the Total Corners line to be covered which is on offer at odds of -125.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

São Paulo

Total

11.00 7.30 3.70

Home

10.00 5.90 4.10

Away

9.40 4.80 4.60

Bahia

Total

10.10 4.80 5.30

Home

9.70 6.60 3.10

Away

11.20 4.20 7.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-143

Under 9.5

-100

São Paulo Corners

Over 5.5

-128

Under 5.5

-115

Bahia Corners

Over 3.5

-149

Under 3.5

-100

Most Corners

1

-200

X

+700

2

+195

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

São Paulo vs Bahia Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The São Paulo betting odds are -102 which means that they’re favourites to land victory in this Série A encounter. It’s also suggested by the bookies that this team have a 51% chance of winning. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Bahia are trading at +280.

You can choose São Paulo -0.5 or Bahia +0.5 at respective Asian Handicap odds of -102 and -122. The former is the same as betting the favourites to win, with the latter giving you a return if it’s a draw.

The Total Goals price implies that Under 2.5 is the most likely result in this contest. If you think both teams will score, then BTTS Yes could appeal. Otherwise, you can back BTTS No as an alternative.

All of the Série A matches see the best betting apps go to town with their service. Bettors can find the best approach from the hundreds of markets which are presented to them each time.

Full-Time Result

1

-102

X

+240

2

+280

Half-Time Result

1

+160

X

+117

2

+310

Double Chance

1X

-385

12

-333

X2

-127

Draw No Bet

1

-238

2

+160

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-102

2 Hcp +0.5

-122

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-133

Over 2.5

+102

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-123

No

-112

Jonathan Calleri can be backed to find the net anytime at +160. There is the chance to back the market leader to score the first goal at +390.

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo)

First

+160

Anytime

+390

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+200

Anytime

+510

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

First

+260

Anytime

+650

Willian José (Bahia)

First

+260

Anytime

+650

Everaldo Stum (Bahia)

First

+280

Anytime

+700

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+290

Anytime

+700

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+330

Anytime

+750

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

First

+340

Anytime

+850

Lucca Marques Alencar (São Paulo)

First

+350

Anytime

+850

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

First

+400

Anytime

+1000

Lucas Moura (São Paulo)

First

+410

Anytime

+1000

Cristian Olivera (Bahia)

First

+410

Anytime

+1050

Erick Pulga (Bahia)

First

+420

Anytime

+1000

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

First

+450

Anytime

+1100

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

First

+500

Anytime

+1200

Jean Lucas Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

First

+600

Anytime

+1500

Rodrigo Nestor (Bahia)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Michel Araujo (Bahia)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Erick Luis Carvalho (Bahia)

First

+750

Anytime

+1900

Éverton Ribeiro (Bahia)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Maik Gomes Viegas (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Luciano Juba (Bahia)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Cédric Soares (São Paulo)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

+123

Under 3.5

-

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

+130

Under 3.5

-

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+114

Under 2.5

-

Willian José (Bahia)

Over 2.5

-114

Under 2.5

-

Everaldo Stum (Bahia)

Over 2.5

+102

Under 2.5

-

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+145

Under 2.5

-

Cristian Olivera (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-139

Under 1.5

-

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Erick Pulga (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-116

Under 1.5

-

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-102

Under 1.5

-

Lucas Moura (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+106

Under 1.5

-

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

-

Lucca Marques Alencar (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-130

Under 1.5

-

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-152

Under 1.5

-

Jean Lucas Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Rodrigo Nestor (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

-

Michel Araujo (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

-

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Erick Luis Carvalho (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-156

Under 0.5

-

Éverton Ribeiro (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-132

Under 0.5

-

Rafael Tolói (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-106

Under 0.5

-

Maik Gomes Viegas (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-

Luciano Juba (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Cédric Soares (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+118

Under 0.5

-

São Paulo vs Bahia Lineups & Team News

Make sure to look over the São Paulo vs Bahia team news before betting. We’ll bring you both the expected and confirmed lineups for Série A, along with current injury news.

São Paulo Team Page Bahia Team Page

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