Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 02 Aug 2026

Toluca vs Necaxa Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp -1 @ -111

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Toluca are available to back at -1 on the Asian Handicap. The tempting odds of -111 means we need a winning margin of two or more. A one goal victory over Necaxa would mean money back.

Our Toluca vs Necaxa betting coverage includes detailed reasoning for the main match prediction, plus our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

Toluca vs Necaxa Preview

Toluca host Necaxa at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 21:05 on Sunday 2 August.

Deportivo Toluca were beaten 2-1 at Estadio Nemesio Diez in their last Liga MX game, being turned over at home to Pumas UNAM. Antonio Mohamed's side had four shots on target and enjoyed 66% possession, with Jorge Diaz registering the goal.

Club Necaxa made it back-to-back Liga MX wins after a 2-1 home success over Monterrey at Estadio Victoria. The Aguascalientes outfit enjoyed 65% possession and had nine shots on goal, while Julian Carranza and Juan Valencia found the net.

H2H: 7 Wins for Toluca in Last 10 H2H Encounters

Toluca have enjoyed four consecutive victories against Necaxa. Their last clash saw Toluca leave Estadio Victoria with a 3-0 win. The past 10 H2H matches have included seven Toluca wins along with three draws.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Toluca	7	5	1	1	17	6	11	17:6	16
13	Necaxa	8	2	2	4	9	13	-4	9:13	8

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 2 wins, 6 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 5.4 shots on goal and 13.1 attempts. Los Diablos Rojos have averaged 59.0% possession and 5.3 corners per match, with their opponents getting 1.5 goals from 4.3 shots on goal, 10.0 attempts and 4.3 corners.

Top goalscorers Jorge Diaz and Nicolas Castro have found the net 2 times, with Alexis Vega scoring 1. The top assist makers are Helinho, Alexis Vega and Jesus Gallardo, all of whom have 2 on the board.

Club Necaxa have won 4, lost 3 and drawn 3, averaging 3.7 shots on goal, 7.9 attempts and 1.2 goals. Martin Varini's team average 51.3% possession, 4.7 corners awarded and 4.9 corners against, while 1.2 goals have been conceded from 9.1 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal.

Tomas Badaloni and Javier Ruiz have 3 and they’re top of the team’s scoring charts, with Julian Carranza on 2. The top assistors in the last 10 games are Francisco Mendez, Mauro Zaleta and Julian Carranza who have all made 1.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Santiago Simon, Federico Pereira, Everardo Lopez, Jesus Gallardo, Jorge Diaz, Franco Romero, Jesus Angulo, Erick Gutierrez, Alexis Vega, Ivan Lopez.

Necaxa confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Luis Jimenez (GK), Raul Martinez, Alexis Pena, Agustin Oliveros, Miguel Rodriguez, Lorenzo Faravelli, Danny Leyva, Carlos Vargas, Juan Pablo Torres, Javier Ruiz, Julian Carranza.

Main Match Prediction

Toluca should be able to beat Necaxa by two goals or more. We’ll back the favourites -1 at -111 for this Liga MX encounter, with the stats suggesting there’s a good chance of a return.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):

• The +1 line hasn’t been covered by Necaxa in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +1 line hasn’t been covered by Necaxa in 11 of their last 17 games on the road.
• The +1 line hasn’t been covered by Necaxa in 2 consecutive games on the road.
• The -1 line has been covered by Toluca in 4 consecutive games against Necaxa.

The Liga MX experts at Sportsgambler.com have a strong handle when it comes to injuries and suspensions. The recent form also helps to shape our football predictions, with this being cross-referenced with the latest numbers.

The top bookmakers are estimating that there is a 52.6% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this bet.

If you’re looking for bigger odds about Toluca covering the line, then why not combine this pick with some of the other available betting markets in a Bet Builder.

Don’t miss out on extra value. Our comprehensive guide features a wide range of free bets and sign-up bonuses for new bettors.

Toluca Asian Hcp -1 @ -111 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Aug 1, 03:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Necaxa

We’re taking a correct score bet which involves Toluca to win 2-0. The odds of +600 make plenty of appeal and you should hopefully get some entertainment with this wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jesus Ricardo Angulo Over 0.5 Shots On Target -154

Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca) can be backed at -154 to finish with at least one shot on goal. It’s really hard to rule him out at an attractive price for the Shots on Target betting market.

Latest Jesus Ricardo Angulo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+200

First

+600

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-

---

Helinho to Score +190

Helinho (Toluca) has netted two goals in his past five Liga MX games on home soil. When it comes to him finding the net, we believe the +190 available is appealing when backing him on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Helinho Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+190

First

+550

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Necaxa Over 3.5 Corners -105

Necaxa have had over 3.5 corners in six straight away matches, while the last 5 Toluca games have seen them concede an average of 4.40 corners. We think that the value can be landed by betting on Team Corners and you can get -105 that Necaxa go over the line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.60 5.30 4.30

Home

8.60 5.50 3.10

Away

10.30 6.50 3.80

Necaxa

Total

9.60 4.70 4.90

Home

9.40 4.50 4.90

Away

11.00 5.20 5.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-137

Under 9.5

-109

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

-105

Under 6.5

-149

Necaxa Corners

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-164

Most Corners

1

-345

X

+750

2

+310

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Necaxa Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the bookies giving them a 69% probability of winning, Deportivo Toluca might be a popular acca pick. Their current betting odds are -222 when it comes to triumphing in this Liga MX clash. Club Necaxa are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +525.

The Half-Time Result market means that your bet will always be settled at the interval. Toluca are -112, while Necaxa are alternatively priced at +420 and the draw is +160.

The Over 2.5 option is currently favourite on the Total Goals betting market. If you’re anticipating that both teams will score, the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -185.

The top football betting sites definitely give customers lots of choice. When it comes to Liga MX games, choose from hundreds of markets until you find the most attractive odds.

Full-Time Result

1

-222

X

+340

2

+525

Half-Time Result

1

-112

X

+160

2

+420

Double Chance

1X

-1000

12

-588

X2

+150

Draw No Bet

1

-667

2

+330

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.25

-105

2 Hcp +1.25

-125

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+160

Over 2.5

-227

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-185

No

+123

João Paulo Paulinho is the First Goalscorer favourite at +270. Alternatively, there’s the opportunity to simply back him to find the net anytime at -125.

João Paulo Paulinho (Toluca)

First

+270

Anytime

-125

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+150

Helinho (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+190

Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+200

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+230

Julián Carranza (Necaxa)

First

+750

Anytime

+240

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+290

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+900

Anytime

+290

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+1050

Anytime

+360

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+1150

Anytime

+390

Javier Ruiz (Necaxa)

First

+1200

Anytime

+400

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+1200

Anytime

+400

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+1150

Anytime

+400

Juan Torres (Necaxa)

First

+1400

Anytime

+500

Danny Leyva (Necaxa)

First

+1500

Anytime

+525

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+1600

Anytime

+550

Ricardo Monreal (Necaxa)

First

+1700

Anytime

+575

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+1800

Anytime

+650

Rogelio Cortéz (Necaxa)

First

+1900

Anytime

+650

Brian Garcia (Toluca)

First

+1900

Anytime

+650

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+1900

Anytime

+700

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

First

+2000

Anytime

+700

Lorenzo Faravelli (Necaxa)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-250

Under 0.5

-

Helinho (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

-

Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-

João Paulo Paulinho (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

-

Julián Carranza (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Javier Ruiz (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

+107

Under 0.5

-

Juan Torres (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-

Danny Leyva (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-

Ricardo Monreal (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-

Rogelio Cortéz (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-

Lorenzo Faravelli (Necaxa)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-

Brian Garcia (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Liga MX matches only
Toluca have racked up five victories, three draws and two defeats in the previous 10 home games, netting an average of 1.70 goals per match and conceding 0.90.

Necaxa have not won in the past five away matches. The Aguascalientes outfit have finished with five defeats, three wins and two draws in the past 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

When the sides last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca beat Necaxa 3-1. The past 7 H2H matches at Estadio Nemesio Diez have seen four Toluca triumphs, one Necaxa win and two draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		5-3-2	2.60	1.70	0.90	4	6	7	3
Necaxa Away Stats		3-2-5	3.30	1.40	1.90	7	3	8	2

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Necaxa Lineups & Team News

Know who’s in and who’s out for Toluca vs Rayos before making your bets. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups and the latest on injuries.

Toluca Team Page Club Necaxa Team Page

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