Toluca vs Atlas Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 Sep 2026
Toluca vs Atlas Predictions
We think that Atlas are a great pick against Toluca, with bettors able to back them at +1.25 at odds of -133. Taking this Asian Handicap wager allows us to divide our stake between +1 and +1.5.
Continue reading for our full Toluca vs Atlas betting analysis, outlining the core arguments for our main match prediction, alongside our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.
Toluca vs Atlas Preview
Toluca take on Atlas at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 19:00 on Saturday 12 September.
Deportivo Toluca won their last league game 4-0, making it successive Liga MX victories. This was a home win at Estadio Nemesio Diez against Juárez. Los Diablos Rojos had the majority of the ball boasting 58% possession and eight shots on target, while Helinho, Jesus Murillo (own goal), Oswaldo Virgen and Federico Vinas bagged a goal.
Atlas drew their previous game which was at home. The action at Estadio Jalisco ended 1-1 against Atlante F.C.. Hernan Crespo's men managed three shots on goal and enjoyed 63% possession, while Luis Esteves was on the scoresheet.
H2H: Last Head-to-Head Encounter Ended in a 1-1 Draw
Toluca are unbeaten in the past eight matches against Atlas, with the last encounter ending in a 1-1 draw at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The past 10 H2H games have featured five draws, four wins for Toluca and just one for Atlas.
| Liga MX | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Toluca |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12:4 | 13 |
| 5 |  Atlas |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10:9 | 13 |
Deportivo Toluca have 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.9 goals from 6.1 shots on goal and 15.0 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's team have averaged 58.7% possession and 6.1 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.2 goals from 4.2 shots on goal, 11.0 attempts and 4.5 corners.
Helinho, Federico Vinas, Everardo Lopez, Jorge Diaz and Nicolas Castro are joint-top scorers with 2 goals on the board. Leading assistor is Jesus Gallardo with 3.
Atlas have won 5, lost 4 and drawn 1, with an average of 10.2 attempts, 3.7 shots on goal and 1.3 goals. Los Rojinegros average 50.1% possession, 3.8 corners in their favour and 5.5 corners against, while 1.3 goals have been conceded from 4.9 shots on goal and 11.0 attempts.
Arturo Gonzalez has top scored with 3, while Luis Esteves, Edgar Zaldivar and Aldo Rocha are next on 2. Duk, Arturo Gonzalez and Edgar Zaldivar have clocked up 1 assists each in the previous 10 games.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Brian García, Federico Pereira, Everardo del Villar, Jesús Gallardo, Franco Romero, Nicolas Castro, Helinho, Jesús Angulo, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Federico Viñas.
Atlas predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Camilo Vargas (GK), Jorge Sánchez, Manuel Capasso, Rodrigo Schlegel, Adonis Frías, Jorge Rodriguez, Aldo Paúl Rocha, Ryan Mmaee, Arturo Gonzalez, Luís Esteves, Florian Monzon.
Main Match Prediction
Atlas enjoying a +1.25 goal start on the Asian Handicap could be a wise move at odds of -133. We anticipate a close battle when it comes to this Liga MX game, so let’s back our selection with confidence.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):
The football predictions are generated after consulting the team news for both sides along with the form. We are also able to analyse the latest Liga MX stats which can suggest how the game might unfold.
The best bookies are estimating that there is a 57.1% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 60-65%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.
In the quest to secure larger odds, there’s the possibility of moving the line. There are plenty of choices when it comes to doing this, so you can choose the option that suits you.
Thinking of placing a bet? Make sure to check our guide first — it’s full of the latest offers and welcome bonuses worth claiming.
Correct Score Prediction
1
-
1
Atlas
We’re sweet on the prospect of a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +575. Correct score betting can be rewarding and you can also get plenty of entertainment with this option.
Player Prop Picks
Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca) is available to register one or more shots on goal at -143. He looks like a value bet on the Shots on Target market and we recommend backing this player prop pick.
Helinho (Toluca) has been on the scoresheet in back-to-back Liga MX games. Based on the numbers, we are looking to bet the +210 for him to find the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
Toluca have failed to cover the 7.5 corners line in four straight matches, while the previous 10 Atlas games have seen them concede an average of 5.50 corners. The number of Toluca corners could be lower than the line suggests and that leads us to a bet at odds of -156.
Toluca
Atlas
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
Check out our same-game multi. The selections are Atlas with the +1.25 Asian Handicap, no more than two goals as well as Toluca to finish with under 7.5 corners.
A bet builder is a great alternative for football punters who want to focus their wagering on a single game. It results in you being able to place a tailored bet at a larger price based on the number of predictions made.
Toluca vs Atlas Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
The latest Deportivo Toluca odds are -222 which leads to them being favourites in this Liga MX clash. It’s also implied by the bookmakers that they have a 69% prospect of securing a victory. Atlas are operating at larger odds than the opposition and the underdogs can be wagered at +510.
There’s a Half-Time Result market should you wish to predict the outcome at the break. Atlas are +450 here and the draw is +135, with Toluca on offer at -114.
For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. The Yes pick in the Both Teams to Score market is considered to be the most likely result and it’s trading at -133.
If you head to the best football betting sites, you can take your pick when it comes to Liga MX matches. The hundreds of markets always ensure lots of choice.
Those interested in favourite Federico Viñas to find the net first can get +400, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is +150.
Stats: Liga MX matches only
Toluca have six wins, two draws and two losses in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per match and conceding 0.80.
Atlas have enjoyed three straight wins on the road. Hernan Crespo's men have five wins, four losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.10 goals per match and conceding 1.20.
Toluca were involved in a 1-1 draw when last meeting Atlas at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the past 8 H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez, we have seen four Toluca wins, two Atlas victories and two draws.
| Last 10 League Games | W-D-L | G | GF | GA | O2.5 | U2.5 | B-Y | B-No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca Home Stats |
6-2-2 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | |
| Atlas Away Stats |
5-1-4 | 2.30 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | |
- W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
- G = Avg. Goals
- GF = Avg. Goals For
- GA = Avg. Goals Against
- O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
- U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
- B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
- B-No = Matches BTTS No
- Liga MX: 15/03 2026 Toluca 1 Atlas 1
- Liga MX: 02/11 2025 Atlas 0 Toluca 0
- Liga MX: 13/04 2025 Atlas 2 Toluca 3
- Liga MX: 29/09 2024 Toluca 4 Atlas 1
- Liga MX: 07/04 2024 Toluca 4 Atlas 1
- Liga MX: 27/08 2023 Atlas 0 Toluca 0
- Liga MX: 02/02 2023 Atlas 0 Toluca 0
- Liga MX: 10/07 2022 Toluca 3 Atlas 2
- Liga MX: 24/04 2022 Toluca 2 Atlas 4
- Liga MX: 22/08 2021 Atlas 0 Toluca 0
Toluca League Stats
Atlas League Stats
- 5 wins, 4 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 6 wins, 2 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches
- 5 wins, 4 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 5 wins, 4 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 3.10 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.80 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.30 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 3 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 4.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 5.50 corners awarded and 3.40 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 10.60 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 8.90 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 3.80 corners awarded and 5.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 3.90 corners awarded and 5.60 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 9.30 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 9.50 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 2 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 58.70% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 59.00% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 8 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 50.10% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 46.00% possession in the last 10 away matches
- Most possession in 5 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 2 of the last 10 away matches
- Top Scorers for Toluca this season are Federico Vinas (2), Helinho (2), Alexis Vega (1)
- Top Assistors for Toluca this season are Helinho (2), Everardo Lopez (1), Ivan Lopez (1)
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Toluca vs Atlas Lineups & Team News
Stay informed and review the Toluca vs Atlas team news before placing your bets. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups alongside the newest injury information.
Deportivo Toluca Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Atlas Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Toluca Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Atlas Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Previous Toluca Lineups
Previous Atlas Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
Toluca Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Antonio Mohamed
Atlas Player Stats & Squad
Liga MX Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12:2 | 16 |
| 2 | Guadalajara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:6 | 14 |
| 3 | Toluca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:4 | 13 |
| 4 | Tijuana | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 5 | Atlas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 7 | Pumas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Querétaro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 9 | Puebla | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 10 | León | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 11 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:8 | 8 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | 8 |
| 14 | Atlante | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 15 | Tigres | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 16 | San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:13 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4:12 | 1 |
| 18 | Juárez | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3:21 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:2 | 12 |
| 2 | América | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 6 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:6 | 6 |
| 5 | Guadalajara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 6 | León | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 7 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 8 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Tigres | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 5 |
| 10 | Pumas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 11 | Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 13 | Atlante | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 14 | Querétaro | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 15 | San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 16 | Pachuca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 18 | Juárez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | 0 |
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