Toluca vs Atlas Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 Sep 2026

Toluca vs Atlas Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Atlas Asian Hcp +1.25 @ -133

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We think that Atlas are a great pick against Toluca, with bettors able to back them at +1.25 at odds of -133. Taking this Asian Handicap wager allows us to divide our stake between +1 and +1.5.

Continue reading for our full Toluca vs Atlas betting analysis, outlining the core arguments for our main match prediction, alongside our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

Toluca vs Atlas Preview

Toluca take on Atlas at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 20:00 on Saturday 12 September.

Deportivo Toluca won their last league game 4-0, making it successive Liga MX victories. This was a home win at Estadio Nemesio Diez against Juárez. Los Diablos Rojos had the majority of the ball boasting 58% possession and eight shots on target, while Helinho, Jesus Murillo (own goal), Oswaldo Virgen and Federico Vinas bagged a goal.

Atlas drew their previous game which was at home. The action at Estadio Jalisco ended 1-1 against Atlante F.C.. Hernan Crespo's men managed three shots on goal and enjoyed 63% possession, while Luis Esteves was on the scoresheet.

H2H: Last Head-to-Head Encounter Ended in a 1-1 Draw

Toluca are unbeaten in the past eight matches against Atlas, with the last encounter ending in a 1-1 draw at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The past 10 H2H games have featured five draws, four wins for Toluca and just one for Atlas.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Atlas	14	7	3	4	25	26	-1	25:26	24
5	Toluca	14	6	5	3	29	19	10	29:19	23

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.9 goals from 6.1 shots on goal and 15.0 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's team have averaged 58.7% possession and 6.1 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.2 goals from 4.2 shots on goal, 11.0 attempts and 4.5 corners.

Helinho, Federico Vinas, Everardo Lopez, Jorge Diaz and Nicolas Castro are joint-top scorers with 2 goals on the board. Leading assistor is Jesus Gallardo with 3.

Atlas have won 5, lost 4 and drawn 1, with an average of 10.2 attempts, 3.7 shots on goal and 1.3 goals. Los Rojinegros average 50.1% possession, 3.8 corners in their favour and 5.5 corners against, while 1.3 goals have been conceded from 4.9 shots on goal and 11.0 attempts.

Arturo Gonzalez has top scored with 3, while Luis Esteves, Edgar Zaldivar and Aldo Rocha are next on 2. Duk, Arturo Gonzalez and Edgar Zaldivar have clocked up 1 assists each in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Ronaldo Beltran (GK), Diego Barbosa, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Jesus Angulo, Helinho, Nicolas Castro, Alexis Vega, Federico Vinas.

Atlas confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Camilo Vargas (GK), Gaddi Aguirre, Manuel Capasso, Milton Valenzuela, Jorge Sanchez, Jorge Rodriguez, Arturo Gonzalez, Paulo Ramirez, Luis Esteves, Florian Monzon, Victor Rios.

Main Match Prediction

Atlas enjoying a +1.25 goal start on the Asian Handicap could be a wise move at odds of -133. We anticipate a close battle when it comes to this Liga MX game, so let’s back our selection with confidence.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):

• The +1.25 line has been covered by Atlas in 6 consecutive games on the road.
• The +1.25 line has been covered by Atlas in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The +1.25 line has been covered by Atlas in 16 of their last 20 games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 13 of their last 20 games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 3 consecutive games against Atlas.

The football predictions are generated after consulting the team news for both sides along with the form. We are also able to analyse the latest Liga MX stats which can suggest how the game might unfold.

The best bookies are estimating that there is a 57.1% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 60-65%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

In the quest to secure larger odds, there’s the possibility of moving the line. There are plenty of choices when it comes to doing this, so you can choose the option that suits you.

Thinking of placing a bet? Make sure to check our guide first — it’s full of the latest offers and welcome bonuses worth claiming.

Atlas Asian Hcp +1.25 @ -133 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 11, 02:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 1 - 1 Atlas

We’re sweet on the prospect of a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +575. Correct score betting can be rewarding and you can also get plenty of entertainment with this option.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jesus Ricardo Angulo Over 0.5 Shots On Target -143

Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca) is available to register one or more shots on goal at -143. He looks like a value bet on the Shots on Target market and we recommend backing this player prop pick.

Latest Jesus Ricardo Angulo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

---

Helinho to Score +210

Helinho (Toluca) has been on the scoresheet in back-to-back Liga MX games. Based on the numbers, we are looking to bet the +210 for him to find the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Helinho Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+210

First

+600

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-179

Under 0.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Toluca Under 7.5 Corners -156

Toluca have failed to cover the 7.5 corners line in four straight matches, while the previous 10 Atlas games have seen them concede an average of 5.50 corners. The number of Toluca corners could be lower than the line suggests and that leads us to a bet at odds of -156.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

10.60 6.10 4.50

Home

8.90 5.50 3.40

Away

11.30 6.30 5.00

Atlas

Total

9.30 3.80 5.50

Home

9.00 3.70 5.30

Away

9.50 3.90 5.60

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-133

Under 10.5

-112

Toluca Corners

Over 7.5

-105

Under 7.5

-149

Atlas Corners

Over 3.5

+106

Under 3.5

-167

Most Corners

1

-526

X

+1000

2

+380

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Atlas Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The latest Deportivo Toluca odds are -238 which leads to them being favourites in this Liga MX clash. It’s also implied by the bookmakers that they have a 70% prospect of securing a victory. Atlas are operating at larger odds than the opposition and the underdogs can be wagered at +550.

There’s a Half-Time Result market should you wish to predict the outcome at the break. Atlas are +460 here and the draw is +143, with Toluca on offer at -122.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. The Yes pick in the Both Teams to Score market is considered to be the most likely result and it’s trading at -133.

If you head to the best football betting sites, you can take your pick when it comes to Liga MX matches. The hundreds of markets always ensure lots of choice.

Full-Time Result

1

-238

X

+330

2

+550

Half-Time Result

1

-122

X

+143

2

+460

Double Chance

1X

-1111

12

-526

X2

+170

Draw No Bet

1

-909

2

+370

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.25

-105

2 Hcp +1.25

-125

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+116

Over 2.5

-161

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-133

No

-111

Those interested in favourite Federico Viñas to find the net first can get +400, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is +145.

Federico Viñas (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+145

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+170

Edgar López (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+180

Víctor Guzmán (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+205

Helinho (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+210

Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+250

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+260

Ryan Mmaee (Atlas)

First

+850

Anytime

+320

Florian Monzón (Atlas)

First

+900

Anytime

+320

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+330

Érick Gutiérrez (Toluca)

First

+950

Anytime

+350

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+950

Anytime

+350

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+1100

Anytime

+410

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+1200

Anytime

+430

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+1150

Anytime

+450

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+1200

Anytime

+450

Luís Esteves (Atlas)

First

+1300

Anytime

+475

Barros Lopes Luis Henrique 'Duk' (Atlas)

First

+1400

Anytime

+525

Arturo González (Atlas)

First

+1500

Anytime

+575

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+1700

Anytime

+650

Everardo López (Toluca)

First

+1800

Anytime

+700

Víctor Ríos (Atlas)

First

+1900

Anytime

+700

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+1900

Anytime

+750

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Brian Garcia (Toluca)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Víctor Guzmán (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Helinho (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-179

Under 0.5

-

Ryan Mmaee (Atlas)

Over 0.5

-149

Under 0.5

-

Florian Monzón (Atlas)

Over 0.5

-149

Under 0.5

-

Jesus Ricardo Angulo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-135

Under 0.5

-

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-

Érick Gutiérrez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Luís Esteves (Atlas)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Barros Lopes Luis Henrique 'Duk' (Atlas)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-

Federico Viñas (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-

Edgar López (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-

Arturo González (Atlas)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-

Víctor Ríos (Atlas)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-

Everardo López (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-

Brian Garcia (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Last 10 Liga MX matches only.
Toluca have six wins, two draws and two losses in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per match and conceding 0.80.

Atlas have enjoyed three straight wins on the road. Hernan Crespo's men have five wins, four losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.10 goals per match and conceding 1.20.

Toluca were involved in a 1-1 draw when last meeting Atlas at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the past 8 H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez, we have seen four Toluca wins, two Atlas victories and two draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		6-2-2	2.80	2.00	0.80	5	5	6	4
Atlas Away Stats		5-1-4	2.30	1.10	1.20	3	7	4	6

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Atlas Lineups & Team News

Stay informed and review the Toluca vs Atlas team news before placing your bets. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups alongside the newest injury information.

Toluca Team Page Atlas Team Page

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