Vitória vs Casa Pia Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 May 2026

Primeira Liga Betting Preview: Vitória vs Casa Pia

Vitória square off against third-from-bottom Casa Pia at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques, with kick-off set for 15:15 on Monday 11 May.

There’s a strong chance that we’ll see Vitória record a victory and they are priced at -147 to beat Casa Pia. We think that the Full-Time Result market offers bettors plenty of value.

Vitória de Guimarães have landed two Primeira Liga home victories on the spin. It was a road defeat to Sporting CP in their last league game, losing 5-1 at Estadio Jose Alvalade. Gil Lameiras' team had 49% possession and five shots on target, with Zeno Debast (own goal) registering the goal.

Casa Pia suffered a third consecutive defeat when losing 1-0 in their previous game. This was at home to Tondela at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior. The Lisbon outfit had three shots on goal and 50% possession.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Vitória are unbeaten when it comes to the past three games against Casa Pia, with the last clash ending in a 0-0 draw at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior. The past 7 H2H games have featured four draws, two wins for Casa Pia and just one for Vitória.

Primeira Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
9	Vitória	34	12	6	16	39	51	-12	39:51	42
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31	57	-26	31:57	30

View Full Table

3 wins, 5 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.4 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 11.9 attempts. Vitória have had 52.8% possession, 430.6 passes and 3.7 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 1.7 goals from 4.9 shots on goal and 10.1 attempts, while being awarded 5.0 corners.

Samu and Gustavo Silva are the leading goalscorers with 4, while Tony Strata has 1. Goncalo Nogueira and Noah Saviolo have been top assistors on 2, with goalkeeper Charles keeping 3 clean sheets.

Casa Pia have lost 6 and drawn 4, with an average of 0.4 goals from 2.4 shots on goal and 8.2 attempts. Alvaro Pacheco's side have averaged 37.6% possession, 279.1 passes, 4.6 corners taken and 6.2 corners against, while conceding 1.5 goals from 4.4 shots on goal and 12.6 attempts.

The top scorers have been Cassiano on 2, followed by Joao Marques and Rafael Brito with 1. Jeremy Livolant and Gaizka Larrazabal are the top assist makers on 1, with Patrick Sequeira recording 2 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Vitória confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Charles (GK), Tony Strata, Oscar Rivas, Rodrigo Abascal, Francisco Dias, Goncalo Nogueira, Beni, Miguel Nogueira, Samu, Noah Saviolo, Gustavo Silva.

Casa Pia confirmed lineup (3-4-3): Patrick Sequeira (GK), Joao Goulart, Kaly, David Sousa, Kevin Prieto, Lawrence Ofori, Sebastian Perez, Pedro Silva Rosas, Gaizka Larrazabal, Dailon Rocha Livramento, Joao Marques.

Vitória vs Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips

Be fully equipped for Vitória vs Casa Pia with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, valuable corners advice, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

Vitória look a great bet for this Primeira Liga game as we’re expecting them to win. You can get odds of -147 that the home team claim a victory and this looks like a value wager based on the latest stats and team news.

Injuries and suspensions are taken into account by the Primeira Liga experts at Sportsgambler.com. Our football betting tips are also shaped by the latest form, with the stats playing a big part before predictions are made.

Key Vitória vs Casa Pia league stats:

• Vitória have won 3 of their last 5 games at home.
• Vitória have won 2 consecutive games at home.
• Casa Pia have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
• Casa Pia have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
• Casa Pia have lost their last 3 games.

The best football bookies are estimating that there is a 59.5% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

The Match Result & Total market provides bettors with a great alternative at bigger odds. It gives you the chance to back Vitória along with a certain number of goals being scored.

Check out our latest betting offers guide — packed with top free bet deals and exclusive welcome bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Vitória To Win @ -147 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 9, 21:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Vitória 1 - 0 Casa Pia

Vitória are available at +475 when it comes to them winning 1-0. We like a correct score play and the chance to bag a nice return if our prediction is right.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tony Strata To Score +510

Tony Strata (Vitória) can be wagered at +510 to be among the goals. There are attractive odds available for this Anytime Goalscorer wager and we think this is a value proposition for him to find the net.

Latest Tony Strata Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+510

First

+1150

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Vitória Under 6.5 Corners -141

In their past four home games, Vitória have not covered the 6.5 corners line, while the previous four Casa Pia matches have involved them conceding under 6.5 corners. We advise betting on the -141 that Vitória won’t cover the line, with this Team Corners pick hopefully providing a return.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Vitória

Total

8.70 3.70 5.00

Home

8.90 4.10 4.80

Away

8.00 4.50 3.50

Casa Pia

Total

10.80 4.60 6.20

Home

9.30 2.60 6.70

Away

11.70 4.90 6.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-152

Under 9.5

+104

Vitória Corners

Over 6.5

+107

Under 6.5

-154

Casa Pia Corners

Over 3.5

-122

Under 3.5

-116

Most Corners

1

-263

X

+700

2

+250

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Vitória vs Casa Pia Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this Primeira Liga clash, Vitória de Guimarães are the -139 favourites to triumph according to the latest Full-Time Result betting odds. This reflects that they have a 58% chance of winning. Casa Pia are operating at larger odds than the opposition and the underdogs can be wagered at +350.

If you think Vitória can win by two or more goals against Casa Pia, consider them at -0.75 on the Asian Handicap at -112. You’ll even win with half your stake if they win by one goal, with the other half refunded.

Under 2.5 Goals is a short-priced option for those expecting two goals or less. For those wanting to bet on Both Teams to Score, you won’t find much between Yes and No.

You’ll be blown away by the hundreds of markets available for Primeira Liga games. Head to one of our recommended betting sites and take your pick from the various football options available.

Full-Time Result

1

-139

X

+260

2

+350

Half-Time Result

1

+128

X

+125

2

+370

Double Chance

1X

-625

12

-417

X2

-103

Draw No Bet

1

-357

2

+225

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-112

2 Hcp +0.75

-127

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-127

Over 2.5

-112

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-122

No

-116

There is +163 available that Gustavo da Silva Cunha finds the net anytime. If you’re interested in the favourite to score the first goal, then you are able to secure +370.

Gustavo da Silva Cunha (Vitória)

First

+370

Anytime

+163

Telmo Arcanjo (Vitória)

First

+700

Anytime

+300

Cassiano Dias Moreira (Casa Pia)

First

+750

Anytime

+325

Jeremy Livolant (Casa Pia)

First

+750

Anytime

+325

Kevin Prieto (Casa Pia)

First

+800

Anytime

+350

Xander Severina (Casa Pia)

First

+800

Anytime

+360

Benedito Mukendi (Vitória)

First

+800

Anytime

+360

Korede Osundina (Casa Pia)

First

+850

Anytime

+370

Kelian Nsona (Casa Pia)

First

+850

Anytime

+370

Claudio Mendes (Casa Pia)

First

+950

Anytime

+410

Dailon Rocha Livramento (Casa Pia)

First

+950

Anytime

+425

Kiki Silva (Casa Pia)

First

+1050

Anytime

+460

Tony Strata (Vitória)

First

+1150

Anytime

+510

Óscar Rivas (Vitória)

First

+1200

Anytime

+540

João Marques (Casa Pia)

First

+1200

Anytime

+550

João Miguel Teixeira Mendes (Vitória)

First

+1200

Anytime

+575

Tiago Morais (Casa Pia)

First

+1400

Anytime

+600

Miguel Nobrega (Vitória)

First

+1500

Anytime

+650

Miguel Angelo Magalhaes (Vitória)

First

+1500

Anytime

+700

Rodrigo Abascal (Vitória)

First

+1500

Anytime

+700

Rafael Alexandre de Sousa Gancho de Brito (Casa Pia)

First

+1600

Anytime

+700

Gaizka Larrazabal (Casa Pia)

First

+1900

Anytime

+850

Stats: Primeira Liga matches only
Vitória have five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 1.50 goals per match and conceding 1.00.

Casa Pia haven’t triumphed in eight straight games on the road. They have collected seven losses, two draws and one victory in the past 10 away matches, scoring an average of 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

The previous Estadio D. Afonso Henriques encounter involved a 1-0 Vitória win against Casa Pia. In the previous 3 H2H matches at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques, there have been two Casa Pia victories and one Vitória win.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Vitória Home Stats		5-2-3	2.50	1.50	1.00	5	5	5	5
Casa Pia Away Stats		1-2-7	2.40	0.50	1.90	6	4	4	6

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Vitória vs Casa Pia Lineups & Team News

Stay ahead of the game by checking the Vitória vs Casa Pia team news before betting. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed Primeira Liga lineups alongside the newest injury information.

Vitória de Guimarães Team Page Casa Pia Team Page

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