Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 17 Oct 2026

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Victory To Win @ +114

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Melbourne Victory are available at +114 to land a Full-Time Result victory and we think this price represents value. We’re anticipating that the visitors will claim a win against Wellington and a payout could be on the cards.

Continue below for our full Wellington vs Melbourne Victory betting breakdown, where you can read the complete analysis of our main match prediction, as well as our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Preview

Wellington Phoenix square off against Melbourne Victory at Hnry Stadium, with kick-off set for 22:00 on Saturday 17 October.

Wellington Phoenix were defeated on the road in their last game. Macarthur won 4-0 at Campbelltown Stadium. Chris Greenacre's men recorded 45% possession and had three shots on target.

Melbourne Victory lost their previous A-League game, being beaten at home to Sydney FC 1-0 at AAMI Park. The Boys in Blue recorded 51% possession and managed six shots on goal.

Four days ago, Melbourne triumphed 3-0 in the AFC Cup at home to FC Seoul.

H2H: Nix 1-0 Win in Previous Head-to-Head Encounter

The two teams last clashed at AAMI Park, with Wellington recording the away victory. Overcoming Melbourne by a 1-0 scoreline. There have been five Melbourne victories, two draws and three Wellington wins in the previous 10 H2H games.

A-League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
7	Melb Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
11	Wellington	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

View Full Table

4 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 8.6 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal. Wellington have had 46.6% possession and 6.8 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 1.7 goals from 9.3 attempts and 4.9 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 5.0 corners.

Ifeanyi Eze is the top goalscorer with 3, Corban Piper has 2, with Kazuki Nagasawa and two other players on 1. The top assist makers are Tim Payne, Ifeanyi Eze and Isaac Robert Hughes, all of whom have 1 on the board.

Victory have 4 victories, 2 defeats and 4 draws, averaging 12.3 attempts, 6.1 shots on goal and 2.0 goals. Giovanni Savarese's side average 47.7% possession, 6.2 corners in their favour and 5.5 corners against, while 1.2 goals have been conceded from 3.5 shots on goal and 7.9 attempts.

Charles Nduka and Juan Mata top the team’s scoring charts on 4 goals, with Clarismario Rodrigus on 2. Juan Mata has been the chief assist maker in the previous 10 games with 4.

Main Match Prediction

There are strong reasons to expect Melbourne Victory to have the edge in this A-League encounter and we’ll take them with confidence to claim a victory. The odds of +114 are hard to resist.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):

• Victory have won 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Wellington have lost 3 of their last 5 games at home.

The latest injury and suspension news can have a big bearing and we use this data as well as the latest form guide. We’re also keen to study the football stats so that we can get the fullest picture of how the action might happen.

If you go by the top bookies, there’s a 46.7% likelihood of our pick winning. Based on our tipsters research, we calculate the actual probability to be 50-55%. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Bettors who are looking for a bigger price when backing Victory should take a look at the Asian Handicap. Place a bet on the favourites to cover the line that makes the most appeal.

Before placing your next bet, explore our trusted bonus guide featuring top free bets and generous sign-up offers.

Victory To Win @ +114 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 16, 04:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Wellington 1 - 2 Victory

Let’s go for Victory to win 2-1, a bet which is available at +600. Correct score betting provides plenty of excitement and a potentially bigger return if you win.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Matthew Grimaldi Over 0.5 Shots On Target -111

Matthew Grimaldi (Victory) can be backed at -111 to finish with a minimum of one shot on goal. It’s really hard to rule him out at an attractive price for the Shots on Target betting market.

Latest Matthew Grimaldi Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+270

First

+800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-

---

Charles Nduka to Score +180

Charles Nduka (Victory) has scored four goals in his past ten A-League games. The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +180.

Latest Charles Nduka Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+180

First

+550

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Wellington Over 4.5 Corners -141

Wellington have covered the 4.5 corners line in nine straight games, while Melbourne Victory have conceded an average of 7.10 corners in the past 10 away games. We think it’s possible that Wellington will cover the Team Corners line and there are odds of -141 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Wellington

Total

11.80 6.80 5.00

Home

10.20 5.90 4.30

Away

11.20 5.20 6.00

Victory

Total

11.70 6.20 5.50

Home

10.90 7.30 3.60

Away

13.70 6.60 7.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-130

Under 10.5

-111

Wellington Corners

Over 4.5

-141

Under 4.5

-105

Victory Corners

Over 5.5

-119

Under 5.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+125

X

+650

2

-128

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The latest Melbourne Victory odds are +114 which leads to them being favourites in this A-League clash. It’s also implied by the bookmakers that they have a 47% prospect of securing a victory. If you’re interested in wagering Wellington Phoenix, you can get +195 for the underdog.

If you think Melbourne can overcome Wellington, then there’s an Asian Handicap option where the former are -118 with a -0.25 deficit. There’s half your money back in the event of a draw.

Over 2.5 Goals is available at shorter odds than Under 2.5 Goals as things stand. BTTS Yes is available at -213 for anyone expecting Both Teams to Score.

The good news is that you can access hundreds of markets for any A-League game. The best football betting sites have a massive range of pre-match and In-Play betting options.

Full-Time Result

1

+195

X

+260

2

+114

Half-Time Result

1

+235

X

+138

2

+165

Double Chance

1X

-152

12

-385

X2

-270

Draw No Bet

1

+117

2

-172

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-116

2 Hcp -0.25

-118

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+130

Over 2.5

-189

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-213

No

+148

Corban Piper is priced at +540 when it comes to First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and also available at odds of +180 to find the net anytime.

Corban Piper (Wellington)

First

+540

Anytime

+180

Charles Nduka (Victory)

First

+550

Anytime

+180

Guillermo May (Victory)

First

+600

Anytime

+200

Denis Genreau (Victory)

First

+800

Anytime

+270

Matthew Grimaldi (Victory)

First

+800

Anytime

+270

Keegan Jelacic (Victory)

First

+800

Anytime

+270

Louis D'Arrigo (Victory)

First

+1000

Anytime

+340

Jordi Valadon (Victory)

First

+1200

Anytime

+410

Joshua Inserra (Victory)

First

+1900

Anytime

+700

Harrison Shillington (Victory)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Jason Davidson (Victory)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Corban Piper (Wellington)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

-

Charles Nduka (Victory)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Guillermo May (Victory)

Over 0.5

-175

Under 0.5

-

Denis Genreau (Victory)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-

Matthew Grimaldi (Victory)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-

Keegan Jelacic (Victory)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

Louis D'Arrigo (Victory)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-

Jordi Valadon (Victory)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-

Joshua Inserra (Victory)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-

Harrison Shillington (Victory)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-

Jason Davidson (Victory)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Last 10 A-League matches only.
Wellington have managed four victories, four losses and two draws in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

Melbourne Victory are unbeaten over their previous five games on the road. The Boys in Blue have collected four wins, three draws and three defeats in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 1.10.

In the last meeting at Hnry Stadium, Melbourne defeated Wellington by a 3-2 scoreline. In the past 8 H2H games at Hnry Stadium, there have been four Melbourne victories, three Wellington wins and a draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Wellington Phoenix Home Stats		4-2-4	3.50	1.60	1.90	8	2	7	3
Melbourne Victory Away Stats		4-3-3	2.50	1.40	1.10	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Lineups & Team News

Be prepared — check the Wellington vs Victory team news before wagering. Get the latest predicted and confirmed A-League lineups and injury news right here.

Wellington Phoenix Team Page Melbourne Victory Team Page

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