Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Apr 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-9-8 on the road) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 26-14-1 at home) at Benchmark International Arena in Game 1 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

There is an appealing -132 when it comes to Under 6.5 goals which is our confident prediction. The Canadiens and the Lightning might not light the lamp too many times.

The Montreal Canadiens arrive in the playoffs after a road loss, falling 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Brendan Gallagher and Jake Evans each scored one goal.

TheTampa Bay Lightning came up short in their last game, losing 4-2 at home to the New York Rangers at Benchmark International Arena. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Corey Perry each found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Habs have won the last two matchups against the Lightning, with a 4-1 win at Benchmark International Arena followed by a 2-1 victory at Bell Centre. The Lightning have won six of the last 10 meetings between the teams.

Starting Goalies

Jakub Dobes (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 2.6 goals from 23.9 shots on goal, with a 8.6% powerplay efficiency. The Habs have been giving up 2.4 goals from 29.6 shots, averaging 5.3 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 96.2%.

Nick Suzuki is the top points scorer with 13 points, 5 goals and 8 assists, with Cole Caufield racking up 11 points, 6 goals and 5 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 2.54 goal against average with a .918 save percentage.

The Lightning have 5 wins and 5 losses, averaging 2.6 goals from 27.1 shots on goal, with a 1.8% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.0 goals from 25.5 shots, averaging 6.6 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.4%.

The top points scorer is Jake Guentzel with 11 points, 4 goals and 7 assists, while Nikita Kucherov is next best after registering 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.18 GAA with a .911 SV%.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

From our key match prediction to correct score pick, top player prop insights and a builder tailored for value — our Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting tips covers it all.

Game Prediction

Our pick is for this NHL encounter to go under the line. Take the -132 that the teams fail to find the net enough times to win this wager.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our NHL handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Key Canadiens vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Canadiens games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Canadiens games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Canadiens games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 6.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 56.8% chance of winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

The best sportsbooks will allow you to shoot for bigger odds on your Under bet. By moving the line and going for a lower Total, there’s the chance to get more juice.

Get more from your wager using our bonus guide, which highlights top betting offers, free bets, and welcome promotions.

Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -132 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 18, 21:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 Shots -164

Brandon Hagel (Lightning) has totaled Over 2.5 shots on goal in 4 straight games. Out of all the prop bets available, we’re going to take the -164 when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager.

Latest Brandon Hagel Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+180

First

+1150

Assists

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-233

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

-164

Under 2.5

+120

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Canadiens 4 - 2 Lightning

The Canadiens are available at +1700 to win by a 4-2 scoreline. Correct score betting allows us to bet at bigger odds and it’s also a fun type of wager.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Canadiens

Lightning

1-0

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+3300

2-1

Canadiens

+1500

Lightning

+1300

3-0

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2400

3-1

Canadiens

+1900

Lightning

+1400

3-2

Canadiens

+1050

Lightning

+900

4-0

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+3300

4-1

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+1200

4-2

Canadiens

+1700

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Canadiens

+1200

Lightning

+1000

5-0

Canadiens

+1200

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Canadiens

+4500

Lightning

+1900

5-2

Canadiens

+2400

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+1600

5-4

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+1500

6-0

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+7000

6-1

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+3300

6-2

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2000

6-4

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+3500

6-5

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+4000

7-1

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+6000

7-2

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+4500

7-3

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+5000

7-4

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+5500

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Tampa Bay Lightning are regarded as likeliest victors for this game and the -192 about them triumphing means a 66% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. Montreal Canadiens are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +158.

The puck line stands at 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you fancy Over 6.5, this outcome can be backed at +108.

The best NHL sportsbooks offer a wide variety of game lines and team props for every matchup, with plenty of options available both before and during the game. Be sure to explore all the lines and odds before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Canadiens

+158

Lightning

-192

3-Way Moneyline

Canadiens

+245

Tie

+340

Lightning

-119

Puck Line

Canadiens +1.5

-149

Lightning -1.5

+122

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-132

Over 6.5

+108

Favorite Cole Caufield is available at +900 to be the First Goalscorer. Similar odds apply if you’re interested in this player to score the last goal.

Player Goals

Cole Caufield (Canadiens)

First

+130

Anytime

+900

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+140

Anytime

+950

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+175

Anytime

+1150

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+180

Anytime

+1150

Juraj Slafkovsky (Canadiens)

First

+220

Anytime

+1400

Nick Suzuki (Canadiens)

First

+220

Anytime

+1450

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+230

Anytime

+1500

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+290

Anytime

+1800

Corey Perry (Lightning)

First

+360

Anytime

+2000

Ivan Demidov (Canadiens)

First

+375

Anytime

+2000

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+375

Anytime

+2200

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Lightning)

First

+425

Anytime

+2200

Darren Raddysh (Lightning)

First

+425

Anytime

+2500

Nicholas Paul (Lightning)

First

+475

Anytime

+2800

Oliver Kapanen (Canadiens)

First

+500

Anytime

+2800

Alexandre Texier (Canadiens)

First

+550

Anytime

+3000

Kirby Dach (Canadiens)

First

+575

Anytime

+3000

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+575

Anytime

+3000

Lane Hutson (Canadiens)

First

+600

Anytime

+3000

Zemgus Girgensons (Lightning)

First

+600

Anytime

+3000

Alex Newhook (Canadiens)

First

+600

Anytime

+3300

Josh Anderson (Canadiens)

First

+650

Anytime

+3300

Scott Sabourin (Lightning)

First

+650

Anytime

+3500

Zack Bolduc (Canadiens)

First

+650

Anytime

+3500

Charle-Edouard D'Astous (Lightning)

First

+675

Anytime

+3500

Phillip Danault (Canadiens)

First

+850

Anytime

+4000

Jake Evans (Canadiens)

First

+875

Anytime

+4500

Mike Matheson (Canadiens)

First

+875

Anytime

+4500

J.J. Moser (Lightning)

First

+900

Anytime

+4500

Kaiden Guhle (Canadiens)

First

+1200

Anytime

+5500

Player Assists

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 0.5

-189

Under 0.5

+145

Nick Suzuki (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

-141

Under 0.5

+105

Lane Hutson (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

-135

Under 0.5

-100

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-175

Cole Caufield (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-200

Ivan Demidov (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-200

Darren Raddysh (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-208

Juraj Slafkovsky (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-227

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-233

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-303

Mike Matheson (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-303

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-345

Alexandre Texier (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-400

Kirby Dach (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+275

Under 0.5

-400

Charle-Edouard D'Astous (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+275

Under 0.5

-400

Corey Perry (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-556

Alex Newhook (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+360

Under 0.5

-588

Zack Bolduc (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+375

Under 0.5

-625

Oliver Kapanen (Canadiens)

Over 0.5

+400

Under 0.5

-667

Player Shots

Cole Caufield (Canadiens)

Over 3.5

-120

Under 3.5

-110

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 3.5

+130

Under 3.5

-175

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-125

Under 2.5

-110

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-164

Under 2.5

+120

Juraj Slafkovsky (Canadiens)

Over 2.5

-120

Under 2.5

-110

Nick Suzuki (Canadiens)

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-141

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-185

Darren Raddysh (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-149

Under 2.5

+110

Lane Hutson (Canadiens)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-149

Charle-Edouard D'Astous (Lightning)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-149

Zack Bolduc (Canadiens)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-175

Alex Newhook (Canadiens)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-200

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-200

Alexandre Texier (Canadiens)

Over 1.5

+115

Under 1.5

-161

Nicholas Paul (Lightning)

Over 1.5

+115

Under 1.5

-161

Ivan Demidov (Canadiens)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-141

Mike Matheson (Canadiens)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-135

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NHL fans essentially being able to bet in-game when it comes to team and player props. Sometimes these are lines where you can wager on Shots or Goals.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.40 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.60 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.40 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 23.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 5.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.8
• Blocks: 12.4
• Faceoff Wins : 26.7
• Hits: 23.9
• Giveaways: 13
• Takeaways: 4

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 25.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.6
• Blocks: 10.6
• Faceoff Wins : 27
• Hits: 23
• Giveaways: 14.6
• Takeaways: 4

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.1
• Shots: 27.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 17.7
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 25
• Hits: 20.6
• Giveaways: 17
• Takeaways: 4.4

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 27.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 5.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 13.2
• Blocks: 16.8
• Faceoff Wins : 25.4
• Hits: 19.3
• Giveaways: 15.1
• Takeaways: 3.4

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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