Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Apr 2026

Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-9-8 on the road) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 26-14-1 at home) at Benchmark International Arena in Game 1 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

We’re backing the Under 6.5 goals at -132. The Canadiens and Lightning could cancel each other out, with both teams capable of tightening things up defensively and limiting scoring chances.

The Montreal Canadiens arrive in the playoffs after a road loss, falling 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Brendan Gallagher and Jake Evans each scored one goal.

TheTampa Bay Lightning came up short in their last game, losing 4-2 at home to the New York Rangers at Benchmark International Arena. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Corey Perry each found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Habs have won the last two matchups against the Lightning, with a 4-1 win at Benchmark International Arena followed by a 2-1 victory at Bell Centre. The Lightning have won six of the last 10 meetings between the teams.

Starting Goalies

Jakub Dobes (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	29-10-4	2.8	.901	0

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

From our key match prediction to correct score pick, top player prop insights and a same game parlay tailored for value — our Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting predictions covers it all.

Game Prediction

We’re backing Under 6.5 goals at -132. With the total set on the higher side, this first-round matchup looks more likely to fall short, especially if both teams tighten up defensively.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our NHL handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Key Canadiens vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Canadiens games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Canadiens games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Canadiens games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 6.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 56.8% chance of winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

The best sportsbooks will allow you to shoot for bigger odds on your Under bet. By moving the line and going for a lower Total, there’s the chance to get more juice.

Get more from your wager using our bonus guide, which highlights top betting offers, free bets, and welcome promotions.

Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -132 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 18, 21:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 Shots -164

Brandon Hagel (Lightning) has totaled Over 2.5 shots on goal in 4 straight games. Out of all the prop bets available, we’re going to take the -164 when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Canadiens 4 - 2 Lightning

The Habs are priced at +1700 to win 4-2. Correct score betting allows you to target bigger payouts, and it’s also a fun type of wager to consider.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Canadiens

Lightning

1-0

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Canadiens

+4500

Lightning

+3500

2-1

Canadiens

+1500

Lightning

+1300

3-0

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2200

3-1

Canadiens

+1800

Lightning

+1400

3-2

Canadiens

+1050

Lightning

+850

4-0

Canadiens

+6600

Lightning

+2900

4-1

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+1200

4-2

Canadiens

+1700

Lightning

+1200

4-3

Canadiens

+1200

Lightning

+1000

5-0

Canadiens

+1200

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+1900

5-2

Canadiens

+2400

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Canadiens

+2500

Lightning

+1600

5-4

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+1600

6-0

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+7000

6-1

Canadiens

+2000

Lightning

+3300

6-2

Canadiens

+5500

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Canadiens

+4000

Lightning

+2200

6-4

Canadiens

+6000

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Canadiens

+5000

Lightning

+4500

7-1

Canadiens

+5000

Lightning

+6000

7-2

Canadiens

+5000

Lightning

+4500

7-3

Canadiens

+5000

Lightning

+5000

7-4

Canadiens

+5000

Lightning

+5500

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Tampa Bay Lightning are regarded as likeliest winner of this Stanley Cup game and the -179 about them triumphing means a 64% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. The Montreal Canadiens are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +146.

The puck line stands at 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you fancy Over 6.5, this outcome can be backed at +108.

The best NHL sportsbooks offer a wide variety of game lines and team props for every matchup, with plenty of options available both before and during the game. Be sure to explore all the lines and odds before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Canadiens

+146

Lightning

-179

3-Way Moneyline

Canadiens

+245

Tie

+350

Lightning

-115

Puck Line

Canadiens +1.5

-164

Lightning -1.5

+134

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-132

Over 6.5

+108

Prop betting is very popular, with bettors looking to wager on player props such as Goals, Shots, Powerplay Points and Goaltender Saves. It’s a great way of betting on individual player performance and the gambling sites will provide lots of options.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NHL fans essentially being able to bet in-game when it comes to team and player props. Sometimes these are lines where you can wager on Shots or Goals.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Montreal Canadiens Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.30 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 24.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 16.6
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.4
• Hits: 36.1
• Giveaways: 14.3
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 11.1
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.4
• Hits: 27.3
• Giveaways: 14.2
• Takeaways: 4.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 16
• Faceoff Wins : 23.2
• Hits: 28.4
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 29.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.5
• Blocks: 17
• Faceoff Wins : 25.1
• Hits: 22.9
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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