Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 05 Oct 2026

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Best Bet

Under 5.5 Goals @ +104

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The Flyers and the Lightning should fail to surpass a total of 5.5 goals. Our prediction is available at +104 and these look like attractive odds.

Get our top Flyers vs Lightning betting recommendations, featuring our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Scroll down for the full breakdown and reasoning behind each pick.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Philadelphia Flyers meet the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Monday, October 5.

Philadelphia Flyers have been defeated in three straight games. They were recently beaten at home to Carolina Hurricanes by a 3-2 (OT) scoreline at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Matvei Michkov and Owen Tippett each scored one goal. Goalie Joseph Woll stopped 37 shots (.925).

Tampa Bay Lightning were winners last time out. It was a 3-1 home victory against Washington Capitals at Benchmark International Arena. Jake Guentzel, Charles-Edouard D'Astous and Conor Geekie each scored one goal. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy produced a great performance and had 20 saves (.952).

H2H: 7 Lightning Wins in Last 10 H2H Clashes

The Lightning triumphed 5-1 when they last played the Flyers. This head-to-head was played at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The Lightning have triumphed in their previous four meetings against the Flyers. On the head-to-head front, it has been 7 wins out of 10.

Starting Goalies

Dan Vladar (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
26/27	0-1-0	7.1	.816	0
25/26	33-20-7	2.4	.909	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
26/27	1-1-0	2.6	.889	0
25/26	42-19-4	2.3	.910	3

1 win, 5 losses and 4 overtime losses, averaging 1.4 goals from 23.5 shots on goal, with a 2.0% powerplay efficiency. The Flyers have been giving up 3.3 goals from 34.3 shots, averaging 5.9 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 86.4%.

Travis Konecny is the top points scorer with 5 points, 1 goal and 4 assists, with Travis Sanheim racking up 4 points, 2 goals and 2 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Daniel Vladar have a 3.04 goal against average with a .899 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.1 goals from 28.1 shots on goal, with a 7.7% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.6 goals from 22.3 shots, averaging 5.5 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.3%.

The top points scorer is Jake Guentzel with 11 points, 3 goals and 8 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next best after having 10 points, 6 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.27 GAA with a .896 SV%, including one shutout.

Best Bet

We’re going under the line in this NHL clash. Our pick is available at +104 and we’re expecting the teams to find the net five times or less.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 6 Flyers games on the road.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Flyers games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 13 of the last 20 Flyers games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Lightning games at home.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Lightning games.

Injuries can influence the outcome and our NHL handicappers factor that in alongside the latest form guide. We apply the same approach to the stats to build the clearest picture of how the game might unfold.

Under 5.5 Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 49% prospect of winning. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this hockey wager.

Those looking for larger odds can include an Under selection with other picks when they place a Bet Builder. A bigger potential payout could be on the cards with this wager.

Boost your wager with the newest free bets, sign-up promotions and the best betting offers featured in our easy-to-use guide.

Under 5.5 Goals @ +104 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 4, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tyson Foerster To Score +280

Tyson Foerster (Flyers) has found the net in 0 straight games. We’ll take a chance at +280 for this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds looks really appealing.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Flyers 3 - 2 Lightning

There are betting odds of +1000 that the Flyers land a 3-2 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Flyers

Lightning

1-0

Flyers

+4000

Lightning

+4500

2-0

Flyers

+5000

Lightning

+3000

2-1

Flyers

+1300

Lightning

+1200

3-0

Flyers

+4500

Lightning

+2200

3-1

Flyers

+1900

Lightning

+1300

3-2

Flyers

+1000

Lightning

+850

4-0

Flyers

+6600

Lightning

+3300

4-1

Flyers

+2400

Lightning

+1200

4-2

Flyers

+1800

Lightning

+1200

4-3

Flyers

+1150

Lightning

+1000

5-0

Flyers

+1150

Lightning

+4000

5-1

Flyers

+5000

Lightning

+1800

5-2

Flyers

+2900

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Flyers

+2800

Lightning

+1800

5-4

Flyers

+1900

Lightning

+1600

6-1

Flyers

+1900

Lightning

+3000

6-2

Flyers

+7000

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Flyers

+5500

Lightning

+2400

6-4

Flyers

+6600

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Flyers

+5500

Lightning

+4000

7-1

Flyers

+5500

Lightning

+5500

7-2

Flyers

+5500

Lightning

+4500

7-3

Flyers

+5500

Lightning

+5000

7-4

Flyers

+5500

Lightning

+6600

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks have Tampa Bay Lightning at -200 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the favorites are 67% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. At +164, Philadelphia Flyers are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 5.5. A Totals wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you’re wanting to back Over 5.5, the odds are -128.

If you’re planning to wager on a National Hockey League matchup, visit the best sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of team props and game lines. Find the odds and betting lines which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Flyers

+164

Lightning

-200

3-Way Moneyline

Flyers

+275

Tie

+320

Lightning

-120

Puck Line

Flyers +1.5

-161

Lightning -1.5

+128

Total Goals

Under 5.5

+104

Over 5.5

-128

The First Goalscorer favorite is Nikita Kucherov at +950. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last goal.

Player Goals

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+140

Anytime

+950

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+165

Anytime

+1100

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+170

Anytime

+1000

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+175

Anytime

+1000

Tyson Foerster (Flyers)

First

+280

Anytime

+1650

Matvei Michkov (Flyers)

First

+300

Anytime

+1650

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+300

Anytime

+1650

Travis Konecny (Flyers)

First

+300

Anytime

+1700

Owen Tippett (Flyers)

First

+300

Anytime

+1850

Porter Martone (Flyers)

First

+310

Anytime

+1900

Trevor Zegras (Flyers)

First

+325

Anytime

+1800

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+340

Anytime

+2000

Alex Bump (Flyers)

First

+400

Anytime

+2000

Pontus Holmberg (Lightning)

First

+450

Anytime

+2500

Christian Dvorak (Flyers)

First

+450

Anytime

+2500

John Carlson (Lightning)

First

+475

Anytime

+2500

Noah Cates (Flyers)

First

+525

Anytime

+3000

Ilya Mikheyev (Lightning)

First

+525

Anytime

+3000

Conor Geekie (Lightning)

First

+600

Anytime

+2800

Sean Couturier (Flyers)

First

+675

Anytime

+3500

Charle-Edouard D'Astous (Lightning)

First

+675

Anytime

+3500

Jamie Drysdale (Flyers)

First

+700

Anytime

+3300

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

First

+700

Anytime

+3500

Noel Acciari (Flyers)

First

+725

Anytime

+4500

Jeffrey Viel (Lightning)

First

+750

Anytime

+3300

Carl Grundstrom (Flyers)

First

+800

Anytime

+3500

Zemgus Girgensons (Lightning)

First

+800

Anytime

+4000

Jansen Harkins (Lightning)

First

+875

Anytime

+4500

Cam York (Flyers)

First

+1100

Anytime

+5000

David Jiricek (Flyers)

First

+1200

Anytime

+5000

There are always opportunities to enjoy NHL micro betting. It’s generally the case that you will find team and player props in-game and bettors can use their insight to wager on outcomes such as the Next Goal or Next Goalscorer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Philadelphia Flyers Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 1 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 1.40 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.10 pts and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.10 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.1
• Shots: 23.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 15
• Blocks: 12.2
• Faceoff Wins : 31.5
• Hits: 37.4
• Giveaways: 17.5
• Takeaways: 4.3

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 23.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.4
• Blocks: 10.6
• Faceoff Wins : 29.7
• Hits: 34.6
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 3.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 11.8
• Blocks: 17.9
• Faceoff Wins : 25.3
• Hits: 30.7
• Giveaways: 15.7
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 30.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 12.8
• Blocks: 16.1
• Faceoff Wins : 25.6
• Hits: 25
• Giveaways: 15.6
• Takeaways: 4.2

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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