Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Prediction, Picks & Odds | 10 Oct 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Predictions

Best Bet

Under 5.5 Goals @ -105

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The best betting angle could be Under 5.5 goals, especially when it’s priced at odds of -105. The Lightning and the Islanders may fall short of the mark.

Get our expert Lightning vs Islanders predictions, including our Best Bet, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Pick. Dig into the analysis behind the card in the sections below.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning clash with the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:30 on Saturday, October 10.

Tampa Bay Lightning have won their previous three games. The latest was a 3-2 home triumph at Benchmark International Arena against Minnesota Wild. John Carlson registered two goals, with Anthony Cirelli scoring one. Goalie Dennis Hildeby stopped 34 shots (.944).

New York Islanders won their last game 4-1, making it back-to-back home wins. This was recorded at UBS Arena against Chicago Blackhawks. Bo Horvat scored two goals, with Emil Heineman and Anthony Duclair also scoring. Goalie Ilya Sorokin had a great game and ended up with 22 saves (.957).

H2H: Islanders Claimed Shootout Win in Last H2H

The Islanders triumphed 3-2 when they last played the Lightning. This head-to-head was played at UBS Arena. The Islanders have triumphed in their previous three meetings against the Lightning. On the head-to-head front, it has been 6 wins out of 10.

Starting Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
26/27	2-1-0	2.1	.900	0
25/26	42-19-4	2.3	.910	3

Ilya Sorokin (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
26/27	2-1-0	1	.965	1
25/26	29-24-2	2.7	.906	7

6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.3 goals from 29.8 shots on goal, with a 6.6% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 2.1 goals from 23.4 shots, averaging 4.9 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.8%.

Brandon Hagel is the top points scorer with 10 points, 5 goals and 5 assists, with Nikita Kucherov racking up 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.95 goal against average with a .909 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Islanders have 3 wins and 7 losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 26.5 shots on goal, with a 11.9% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.8 goals from 24.6 shots, averaging 3.7 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 86.5%.

The top points scorer is Bo Horvat with 7 points, 5 goals and 2 assists, while Jean-Gabriel Pageau is next best after having 5 points, 2 goals and 3 assists. Goalie Ilya Sorokin have a 2.60 GAA with a .900 SV%, including one shutout.

Best Bet

We’ve found some excellent value with a totals bet. We might see the NHL game go under the goal line and our pick of five goals or less can be backed at -105.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 9 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 3 Lightning games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Islanders games at home.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Islanders games.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 games between these teams.

The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com regularly track NHL injury updates and pair that with current form. We also tap into a deep stats database to highlight the key numbers that help shape our hockey predictions.

Under 5.5 Probability

When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 51.3% chance of landing a return. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. This hockey wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Bettors looking for more juice from their Unders bet can wager on Match Winner & Total Goals. Here you simply combine goals with the franchise that will win.

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Under 5.5 Goals @ -105 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 9, 23:57). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 1 - 4 Islanders

The Islanders are available at +1900 to win by a 4-1 scoreline. Correct score betting allows us to bet at bigger odds and it’s also a fun type of wager.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Islanders

1-0

Lightning

+3500

Islanders

+4500

2-0

Lightning

+2800

Islanders

+4500

2-1

Lightning

+1200

Islanders

+1300

3-0

Lightning

+2000

Islanders

+4000

3-1

Lightning

+1300

Islanders

+1800

3-2

Lightning

+800

Islanders

+950

4-0

Lightning

+3000

Islanders

+6000

4-1

Lightning

+1300

Islanders

+1900

4-2

Lightning

+1300

Islanders

+1600

4-3

Lightning

+1000

Islanders

+1100

5-1

Lightning

+2000

Islanders

+4000

5-2

Lightning

+1400

Islanders

+2400

5-3

Lightning

+2000

Islanders

+2800

5-4

Lightning

+1800

Islanders

+1800

6-2

Lightning

+2900

Islanders

+5000

6-3

Lightning

+2800

Islanders

+4000

6-4

Lightning

+5000

Islanders

+6000

6-5

Lightning

+4000

Islanders

+5000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Tampa Bay Lightning are regarded as having a 62% chance of winning this game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -164. The market suggests that New York Islanders are least likely to win at +136.

The puck line is 1.5 and total goals is 5.5. The Totals offers hockey bettors an alternative way of getting involved. If you’re going for Over 5.5, then the odds are -115.

You can find a huge selection of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League matchup, with the top betting apps creating many different options. Check out the in-game and pre-game selections before placing your wagers.

Moneyline

Lightning

-164

Islanders

+136

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

-100

Tie

+310

Islanders

+225

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+154

Islanders +1.5

-192

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-105

Over 5.5

-115

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

New York Islanders Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 1 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.40 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.10 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.30 goals and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.20 pts and allowed 2.90 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 29.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 10.9
• Blocks: 18.5
• Faceoff Wins : 25.5
• Hits: 27.1
• Giveaways: 14.8
• Takeaways: 4.8

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 25.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 15.7
• Blocks: 15.3
• Faceoff Wins : 24.9
• Hits: 25.4
• Giveaways: 17.4
• Takeaways: 5.5

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 26.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 3.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 9.1
• Blocks: 14.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.5
• Hits: 21.7
• Giveaways: 14.9
• Takeaways: 4.4

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 29.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 2.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 7.2
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 30.2
• Hits: 19.6
• Giveaways: 15.9
• Takeaways: 4.7

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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