Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 Oct 2026

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Best Bet

Under 6.5 Goals @ -130

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We don’t think the Capitals and the Lightning are going to score too many times. Our prediction is to grab the -130 that there are Under 6.5 goals.

We’ve locked in our top Capitals vs Lightning picks, including our Best Bet, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Explore each section for the complete analysis.

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Washington Capitals meet the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, October 3.

Washington Capitals triumphed in their previous game. It was on the road where Carolina Hurricanes were beaten 5-2 at Lenovo Center. Alex Tuch registered two goals, with Jakob Chychrun, Cole Hutson and Ryan Leonard also finding the net. Goalie Logan Thompson stopped 31 shots (.939).

Tampa Bay Lightning suffered a defeat in their last game. A 5-1 scoreline occurred on the road at Madison Square Garden against New York Rangers. Lightning managed 24 shots and Nikita Kucherov recorded the only goal.

H2H: Lightning Claimed 5-3 Victory in Last H2H

The Lightning have beaten the Caps in the last two encounters. They won 3-2 at Benchmark International Arena and triumphed 5-3 at Capital One Arena. In the past 10 games between the teams, the Lightning have won six.

Starting Goalies

Charlie Lindgren (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
25/26	9-8-3	3.5	.879	1

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
26/27	0-1-0	4.4	.833	0
25/26	42-19-4	2.3	.910	3

8 wins and 2 losses, averaging 4.0 goals from 24.8 shots on goal, with a 21.1% powerplay efficiency. The Caps have been giving up 3.1 goals from 27.3 shots, averaging 4.0 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.5%.

Tom Wilson is the top points scorer with 13 points, 5 goals and 7 assists, with Pierre-Luc Dubois racking up 12 points, 1 goal and 11 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Logan Thompson have a 2.61 goal against average with a .900 save percentage, including two shutouts.

The Lightning have 4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.2 goals from 27.3 shots on goal, with a 8.5% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.8 goals from 23.2 shots, averaging 5.3 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 86.8%.

Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have scored the most points on 9, with each player managing 3 goals and 6 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.48 GAA with a .890 SV%, including one shutout.

Best Bet

We’ve taken the view that the teams will go under the total goals line in this NHL clash. Therefore, our pick is to back the Under selection with confidence at -130.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Capitals games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Capitals games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 7 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 15 of the last 20 Lightning games.

Recent form is always part of the equation and we combine it with team news as soon as it’s available. To deliver expert hockey picks, our handicappers also analyze the latest NHL stats to ensure we’re working with the best information possible.

Under 6.5 Probability

The best sportsbooks make it a 56.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, we think that the probability sits between 60-65% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

Move the line if you want to get more juice when it comes to betting Under. There are several options which can offer bigger odds and it all depends on how risky you want your wager to be.

Check our complete list of betting promo codes, free bet deals and the latest welcome bonuses before wagering.

Under 6.5 Goals @ -130 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 3, 00:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Capitals 4 - 2 Lightning

We’re betting on the Capitals to secure a 4-2 winning scoreline. Odds of +1600 can be taken and it’s great fun to predict a correct score and hopefully land a winner.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Capitals

Lightning

1-0

Capitals

+5500

Lightning

+5500

2-0

Capitals

+5000

Lightning

+4500

2-1

Capitals

+1500

Lightning

+1300

3-0

Capitals

+3500

Lightning

+2800

3-1

Capitals

+1800

Lightning

+1500

3-2

Capitals

+950

Lightning

+900

4-0

Capitals

+5500

Lightning

+3500

4-1

Capitals

+1900

Lightning

+1300

4-2

Capitals

+1600

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Capitals

+1050

Lightning

+950

5-0

Capitals

+1050

Lightning

+6000

5-1

Capitals

+3500

Lightning

+2200

5-2

Capitals

+2000

Lightning

+1400

5-3

Capitals

+2500

Lightning

+1700

5-4

Capitals

+1700

Lightning

+1500

6-1

Capitals

+1700

Lightning

+3500

6-2

Capitals

+5000

Lightning

+2500

6-3

Capitals

+4000

Lightning

+2200

6-4

Capitals

+5500

Lightning

+3500

6-5

Capitals

+4000

Lightning

+3500

7-1

Capitals

+4000

Lightning

+7000

7-2

Capitals

+4000

Lightning

+5000

7-3

Capitals

+4000

Lightning

+5000

7-4

Capitals

+4000

Lightning

+6000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 63% probability of winning this game, Tampa Bay Lightning might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -169 Moneyline betting odds. Washington Capitals are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +140.

There is a puck line of 1.5 and total goals has a line of 6.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you're keen on Over 6.5, this selection is available at +106.

The best betting apps provide an extensive range of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League matchup. Take the time to explore all your options before placing your bet to ensure you find the best value.

Moneyline

Capitals

+140

Lightning

-169

3-Way Moneyline

Capitals

+210

Tie

+310

Lightning

+104

Puck Line

Capitals +1.5

-172

Lightning -1.5

+142

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-130

Over 6.5

+106

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Washington Capitals Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have not covered the -1.5 puck line in any of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 7.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.80 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.10 goals and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.50 pts and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.00 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.20 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 10.7
• Blocks: 12.8
• Faceoff Wins : 26.6
• Hits: 18.5
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 24.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 12.5
• Blocks: 12.9
• Faceoff Wins : 25.7
• Hits: 18.6
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 5.1

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 27.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 11.1
• Blocks: 17.5
• Faceoff Wins : 24.6
• Hits: 28.9
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 5

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 30
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13.3
• Blocks: 15.9
• Faceoff Wins : 25
• Hits: 23.8
• Giveaways: 14.9
• Takeaways: 4.3

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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