Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Sep 2026
College Football Betting Preview: Toledo vs Michigan State
Toledo square off against Michigan State in this Week 1 contest at Spartan Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:00 on Friday, September 4.
We’ve smashed into Toledo +10.5 and this spread wager at odds of -115 means we need them to avoid a heavy defeat against Michigan State.
Toledo Rockets ended last season with a 27-22 loss to Louisville Cardinals in the Boca Raton Bowl at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Michigan State Spartans wrapped up the 2025 regular season with a 38-28 win over Maryland Terrapins at Ford Field.
Quarterbacks
John Alan Richter
Alessio Milivojevic
Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction & Picks
We cover the essential Toledo vs Michigan State betting angles, featuring our main match prediction, correct score pick, top player prop plays and a carefully crafted bet builder.
Game Prediction
Toledo can avoid a big loss in this college football matchup, with bettors able to back them against the spread. The underdogs should be able to cover +10.5 which have been made available at -115.
We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our college football handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.
Key Toledo vs Michigan State stats:
Toledo +10.5 Probability
The top sportsbooks imply that our pick has a 53.5% prospect of winning. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It's therefore regarded as a value wager.
If you are looking for bigger odds, then you can move the line by selling points. Choose how many to sell until you are happy with the juice available.
Before you make your picks, explore our detailed betting guide filled with free bets, the latest promo codes and welcome bonuses.
Player Prop Picks
John Alan Richter (Toledo) is priced at -114 to accumulate over 178.5 passing yards. We’re happy to take him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can place this wager with confidence.
The odds for Chrishon McCray (Toledo) to exceed 62.5 receiving yards are -114. The line for him on the Overs is highly appealing, with Player Receiving Yards bettors able to get plenty of juice.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Our same game parlay pick is Toledo +10.5 on the spread, Under 45.5 and John Alan Richter (Toledo) to go Over 178.5 passing yards.
Should you want to back different outcomes for the same game, then a football same game parlay will suit your needs. The betting sites create this personalised wagering tool where you can make different picks and combine the odds together.
Correct Score Prediction
17
-
20
Michigan State
The Spartans are available at massive odds to register a 20-17 victory and they might have the edge. This should be a close matchup and there won’t be much between the teams.
Toledo vs Michigan State Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
According to the Moneyline betting odds, Michigan State are red-hot -455 favorites with the sportsbooks and that means a 82% chance of winning this college game. The market suggests that Toledo are least likely to win at +340.
There is a spread of 10.5 and total points has a line of 48.5. The Totals offers football bettors an alternative way of getting involved. If you fancy Under 48.5, then the odds are -118.
You’ll find a great variety of team props and game lines for most college football showdowns. The best betting apps provide a strong mix of pre-game and in-game options to suit your betting style.
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
Michigan State Record Shows Three Consecutive Home Defeats
Michigan State have come out on the wrong side in three straight at Spartan Stadium. They own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, scoring 22.90 points per contest and conceding 29.20.
Toledo have four wins and six losses in the last 10 games on the road, scoring 18.20 points per contest and conceding 18.20.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O45.5 | U45.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michigan State Home Stats |
5-5 | 52.10 | 22.90 | 29.20 | 7 | 3 | |
 Toledo Away Stats |
4-6 | 36.40 | 18.20 | 18.20 | 3 | 7 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
- U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Toledo Rockets Stats
Michigan State Spartans Stats
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
- 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
- +10.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games on the road
- -10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
- -10.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 40.80 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 36.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 45.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.00 pts and allowed 12.80 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 18.20 pts and allowed 18.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 54.30 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 53.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 45.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
- Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 23.00 pts and allowed 31.30 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.50 pts and allowed 30.00 pts in the last 10 home games
| Big Ten | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois
|
1 | 0 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Oregon
|
1 | 0 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Rutgers
|
0 | 1 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1L |
Washington
|
1 | 0 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
USC
|
2 | 0 | 81 | 26 | 55 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 2W |
UCLA
|
1 | 0 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1W |
Purdue
|
1 | 0 | 44 | 19 | 25 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Penn State
|
1 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 45 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Ohio State
|
1 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 53 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Indiana
|
1 | 0 | 52 | 16 | 36 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Northwestern
|
1 | 0 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Nebraska
|
1 | 0 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Minnesota
|
1 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Michigan
|
1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
|
Michigan State
|
1 | 0 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Maryland
|
1 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 62 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Iowa
|
1 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 40 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
Wisconsin
|
0 | 1 | 13 | 41 | -28 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
| Mid-American | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Michigan
|
1 | 1 | 49 | 44 | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1L |
Buffalo
|
1 | 0 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1W |
UMass
|
1 | 0 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1W |
Akron
|
0 | 1 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Ball State
|
0 | 1 | 3 | 56 | -53 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Bowling Green
|
0 | 1 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1L |
Central Michigan
|
0 | 1 | 7 | 38 | -31 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Kent State
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 57 | -57 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Miami (OH)
|
0 | 1 | 14 | 59 | -45 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Ohio
|
0 | 1 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
|
Toledo
|
0 | 1 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Western Michigan
|
0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Sacramento State
|
1 | 1 | 69 | 28 | 41 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1W |
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