Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction, Picks & Odds | 15 Nov 2026

Chiefs vs Falcons Predictions

Best Bet

Chiefs -3.5 @ -100

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We’re confident of backing the Chiefs to cover the -3.5 spread when they clash with the Falcons. This is a more than generous line and they look a value pick at -100.

We've put together our Chiefs vs Falcons selections, featuring our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Each section takes a closer look at the reasoning behind the picks.

Chiefs vs Falcons Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, November 15.

Kansas City Chiefs have lost back-to-back on the road. In their previous game, it was a 35-12 home win over New York Jets at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs finished with 391 yards, including 228 passing and 163 rushing yards. The offense produced 27 first downs and scored 5 touchdowns, with 2 through the air and 3 on the ground.

Atlanta Falcons have lost in back-to-back outings. At Estadio Bernabeu, they were recently turned over 34-17 by Cincinnati Bengals. The Falcons finished with 319 yards, including 162 passing and 157 rushing yards. They scored two touchdowns and picked up 20 first downs.

H2H: 22-17 Chiefs Victory in Previous H2H Meeting

The Chiefs triumphed 22-17 when they last played the Falcons. This head-to-head was played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes

240.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Michael Penix Jr.

215.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

We expect the favorites to cover the -3.5 line on the spread. This is a great number and that’s why we’re playing the Chiefs at -100 for this NFL matchup.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Falcons in 4 of their last 5 games at home this season.
• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Falcons in 6 of their last 9 games this season.
• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Falcons in 2 consecutive games.

Injuries are always factored in by the NFL handicappers at Sportsgambler.com. Our picks are also shaped by recent form, with up-to-date stats playing a key role before any selections are locked in.

Chiefs -3.5 Probability

The best sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 50% likelihood of this pick winning. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

It’s good to explore all avenues and you might prefer bigger odds about the spread pick you want to make. Go ahead and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

Before betting, make sure to browse our bonus guide packed with the best betting promo codes, free bets, and sign-up offers.

Chiefs -3.5 @ -100 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Nov 13, 19:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD +210

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) is available at +210 to reach the goal line. We’ll take a chance with this Anytime Touchdown Scorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.

Latest Travis Kelce Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+210

First

+1200

Receiving Yards

Over 47.5

-114

Under 47.5

-114

---

Michael Penix Jr. Over 215.5 Passing Yards -114

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) can be backed at -114 to reach over 215.5 passing yards. The line for him on the Overs looks attractive and bettors can get plenty of juice from this QB Passing Yards wager.

Latest Michael Penix Jr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+1100

First

+5000

Passing Yards

Over 215.5

-114

Under 215.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Chiefs 23 - 17 Falcons

Rather than betting on the Chiefs to win, there’s the option to try your luck when it comes to the correct score lines. Take a chance on a 23-17 victory in their favor.

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Chiefs vs Falcons Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Kansas City Chiefs are regarded as having a 63% chance of winning this game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -172. Atlanta Falcons are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +144.

3.5 is the spread and 47.5 is the total points line. A Total wager relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. There’s the chance to back Under 47.5 at -115.

If you’re betting on the National Football League, we recommend visiting the top betting apps and scanning through the many team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to wager pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Chiefs

-172

Falcons

+144

Point Spread

Chiefs -3.5

-100

Falcons +3.5

-120

Total Points

Under 47.5

-115

Over 47.5

-105

Bijan Robinson can be backed to score a TD at any stage at -222. There is the opportunity to back the market leader to grab the first touchdown at +380.

Touchdown

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

First TD

+380

Anytime TD

-222

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

First TD

+390

Anytime TD

-179

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+180

Drake London (Falcons)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+145

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+210

Josh Downs (Chiefs)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+310

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+240

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+290

Jahan Dotson (Falcons)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+420

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+500

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+600

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+700

Khalil Herbert (Falcons)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+700

Cyrus Allen (Chiefs)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+750

Olamide Zaccheaus (Falcons)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+850

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1100

Austin Hooper (Falcons)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1000

Charlie Woerner (Falcons)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1200

Chris Blair (Falcons)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1200

Andrew Armstrong (Chiefs)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1200

Jalen Royals (Chiefs)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1200

Jake Briningstool (Chiefs)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

Nikko Remigio (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Beaux Collins (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Jaydn Ott (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Jared Wiley (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Nick Muse (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Receiving Yards

Drake London (Falcons)

Over 72.5

-114

Under 72.5

-114

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

Over 54.5

-114

Under 54.5

-114

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Over 47.5

-114

Under 47.5

-114

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

Over 37.5

-114

Under 37.5

-114

Jahan Dotson (Falcons)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 26.5

-114

Under 26.5

-114

Josh Downs (Chiefs)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Olamide Zaccheaus (Falcons)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Khalil Herbert (Falcons)

Over 2.5

-114

Under 2.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 90.5

-114

Under 90.5

-114

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 83.5

-114

Under 83.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Khalil Herbert (Falcons)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 240.5

-114

Under 240.5

-114

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Over 215.5

-114

Under 215.5

-114

Last Ten Falcons Home Games Include Six Defeats

The Falcons have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games, posting 19.40 points per contest while yielding 27.10.

The Chiefs have two wins and eight losses in the last 10 road games, putting up 19.80 points per matchup and giving up 23.70.

The last time the Chiefs faced the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they won 22-17.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O47.5	U47.5
Falcons Home Stats		4-6	46.50	19.40	27.10	5	5
Chiefs Away Stats		2-8	43.50	19.80	23.70	5	5

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O47.5 = Games Over 47.5 Points
• U47.5 = Games Under 47.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Kansas City Chiefs Stats

Atlanta Falcons Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 40.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 43.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 47.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 47.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.70 pts and allowed 17.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 19.80 pts and allowed 23.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 44.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 47.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 47.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 47.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.70 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 18.70 pts and allowed 29.10 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 338.00 Yds. Allowed 297.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 126.80 Yds. Allowed 102.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 211.20 Yds. Allowed 194.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.50 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.60. Allowed 18.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.40. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.90 Yds. Gained 42.40 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 311.20 Yds. Allowed 346.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 128.40 Yds. Allowed 117.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 182.80 Yds. Allowed 228.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.50. Allowed 19.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.50. Committed by opponents 7.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.00 Yds. Gained 56.00 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 310.00 Yds. Allowed 357.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 97.00 Yds. Allowed 114.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 213.00 Yds. Allowed 242.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.80. Allowed 20.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 8.20. Committed by opponents 6.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 65.50 Yds. Gained 44.10 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 291.20 Yds. Allowed 377.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 112.70 Yds. Allowed 118.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 178.50 Yds. Allowed 259.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 3.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.60. Allowed 21.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.80. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 52.40 Yds. Gained 57.20 Yds

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