Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction, Picks & Odds | 01 Nov 2026

Chiefs vs Broncos Predictions

Best Bet

Under 40.5 Points @ -105

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We’re not convinced that the Broncos and the Chiefs are cumulatively going to produce enough points in relation to the total line. Therefore, we’re aiming to go Under 40.5 at -105.

Our expert Chiefs vs Broncos betting picks include our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Check out the sections below for the reasoning behind the card.

Chiefs vs Broncos Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, with kickoff scheduled for 17:25 on Sunday, November 1.

Kansas City Chiefs were beaten in their previous game and this was on the road at Lumen Field. Seattle Seahawks claimed a 20-3 win. The Chiefs recorded 213 total yards, made up of 163 through the air and 50 on the ground. They allowed 24 first downs and managed 11.

Denver Broncos won their last game 30-16, making it three on the bounce. This was a road victory at State Farm Stadium against Arizona Cardinals. The Broncos recorded 377 yards, breaking down to 218 passing and 159 rushing yards. The offense picked up 18 first downs and produced 3 touchdowns, including a passing score and 2 rushing TD's.

H2H: Chiefs Overcame Broncos in Last H2H Meeting

The last matchup between the Chiefs and the Broncos saw the former win. It was a 31-10 scoreline at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have won six of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Bo Nix

208.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

Don’t expect fireworks in this NFL matchup. The two teams might not score a huge combined total and our best pick is to back Under 40.5 points at odds of -105.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 40.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Chiefs games on the road.
• The 40.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Chiefs games.
• The 40.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Chiefs games.
• The 40.5 line hasn’t been covered in 2 of the last 3 Broncos games at home this season.
• The 40.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Broncos games.

Getting the lowdown on injuries and analyzing the form guide are key steps before making NFL picks. We also put strong emphasis on stats, where a data-led approach often leads to smarter predictions.

Under 40.5 Probability

If you go by the best betting sites, our pick has a 51.3% chance of winning. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

There are different ways to maximise a potential profit on the Totals. Moving the line for your Under bet means the chance to secure bigger odds.

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Under 40.5 Points @ -105 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD -145

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) can be backed at -145 to reach the end zone. Based on all the evidence, we're happy to back him to punch it in on the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Kenneth Walker III Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-145

First

+400

Receiving Yards

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 87.5

-114

Under 87.5

-114

---

Patrick Mahomes Under 223.5 Passing Yards -114

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) is priced at -114 to end with fewer than 223.5 passing yards. Several factors suggest he will fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, making this an appealing wager.

Latest Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+600

First

+2500

Passing Yards

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Chiefs 13 - 20 Broncos

The Broncos are capable of landing a victory and we’re going for a correct score line of 20-13 at huge odds. There’s a big return that can be achieved with this wager.

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Chiefs vs Broncos Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

When you consider the latest Moneyline odds, you can find Denver Broncos at -100 whereas Kansas City Chiefs are -118. The leading sportsbooks give the hosts a 50% chance of success.

The current spread is 1.5 and total points is 40.5. There is no denying the popularity of betting on the Totals. Those who wager Under 40.5 can get -105.

The best NFL sportsbooks offer a wide range of team props and game lines for every matchup. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Chiefs

-118

Broncos

-100

Point Spread

Chiefs -1.5

-108

Broncos +1.5

-112

Total Points

Under 40.5

-105

Over 40.5

-115

There is -145 available that Kenneth Walker III scores a touchdown anytime. If you’re interested in the favorite to score the first TD, then you are able to secure +400.

Touchdown

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

First TD

+400

Anytime TD

-145

Jonah Coleman (Broncos)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+160

J.K. Dobbins (Broncos)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+195

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+220

Jaylen Waddle (Broncos)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+220

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+230

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+250

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+280

Troy Franklin (Broncos)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+430

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+430

Bo Nix (Broncos)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+470

Evan Engram (Broncos)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+460

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+500

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+600

Jalen Royals (Chiefs)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+850

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+800

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+1000

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+900

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1000

Andrew Armstrong (Chiefs)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1200

Cyrus Allen (Chiefs)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1200

Dallen Bentley (Broncos)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1500

Nate Adkins (Broncos)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1500

Adam Prentice (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Nikko Remigio (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Jared Wiley (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Jake Briningstool (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Jaydn Ott (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Ben VanSumeren (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Receiving Yards

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

Over 51.5

-114

Under 51.5

-114

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Jonah Coleman (Broncos)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 87.5

-114

Under 87.5

-114

Jonah Coleman (Broncos)

Over 43.5

-114

Under 43.5

-114

J.K. Dobbins (Broncos)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 6.5

-114

Under 6.5

-114

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 208.5

-114

Under 208.5

-114

Can Broncos Make It Another Home Victory?

The Broncos have put together three in a row at Empower Field at Mile High. They have a 8-2 record in their last 10 home games, scoring 21.20 points per contest and conceding 18.20.

The Chiefs have three wins and seven losses in the last 10 games on the road, posting 19.60 points per contest while yielding 21.80.

The Broncos earned a 22-19 win against the Chiefs in the teams’ last meeting at Empower Field at Mile High. Looking at the last 7 head-to-head matchups at Empower Field at Mile High, the Chiefs have four victories and the Broncos three.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O40.5	U40.5
Broncos Home Stats		8-2	39.40	21.20	18.20	5	5
Chiefs Away Stats		3-7	41.40	19.60	21.80	5	5

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O40.5 = Games Over 40.5 Points
• U40.5 = Games Under 40.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Kansas City Chiefs Stats

Denver Broncos Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 36.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 41.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 40.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 40.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.00 pts and allowed 17.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 19.60 pts and allowed 21.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 38.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 39.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 40.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 40.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.30 pts and allowed 18.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 21.20 pts and allowed 18.20 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 296.20 Yds. Allowed 311.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 111.50 Yds. Allowed 110.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 184.70 Yds. Allowed 201.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.30 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.10 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.30. Allowed 19.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.90. Committed by opponents 6.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.70 Yds. Gained 45.40 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 266.00 Yds. Allowed 331.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 92.90 Yds. Allowed 137.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 173.10 Yds. Allowed 194.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.40 TD. Allowed 0.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.40 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.20. Allowed 20.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 6.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 41.30 Yds. Gained 52.10 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 300.70 Yds. Allowed 355.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 98.50 Yds. Allowed 120.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 202.20 Yds. Allowed 235.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 2.10 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.80. Allowed 20.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.90. Committed by opponents 6.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 63.50 Yds. Gained 40.60 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 298.50 Yds. Allowed 318.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 85.40 Yds. Allowed 109.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 213.10 Yds. Allowed 208.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.90. Allowed 19.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.20. Committed by opponents 6.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.70 Yds. Gained 54.80 Yds

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